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Bit too early for me to play.
But the first thing i do antepost will be a multi which includes Neon wolf (arkle) and senewalk for a novice hurdle. Not sure what one yet but I’ll keep an ear out for any clues
Champion Hurdle:
Buveur D’Air (5/1) beat My Tent Or Yours (50/1) by exactly the same distance as Annie Power, still improving and up to now a sound racehorse. Surely has much better than a 17% chance of winning in 2018. If I were a bookie wouldn’t want to lay Buveur D’ir at any more than 3’s. Case of the best value being the favourite. 50/1 My Tent or Yours might look a good each way bet as he’s been placed three times in the Champion and once in Supreme; but you’re throwing away the win part of such a bet (never wins anything, let alone a Champion (suspect temperament)) and in 2018 will be at an age where vast majority of hurdlers are on the downgrade…
Mega Fortune and Bapaume aren’t listed on oddschecker, not in the same league as the Chamion Hurdle placed horses. So although Defi Du Sieul (8/1) won the Triumph with quite a bit in hand and should progress – has a lot to find to reach Champion Hurdle class. From the same ownership as the Champion Hurdle winner and is favourite in some lists for the Arkle.
Of the Mullins horses: Who knows Faugheen (10/1) will be capable of after so much time off. At his very best he is the very best. However, missed two Champion Hurdles and must be odds on misses 2018 renewal. I gather Annie Power (16/1) might reach the racecourse at Punchestown, but will need to be at least as good as her 2015 Champion performance to even match last week’s Buveur. Majority don’t come back as good as they were after a long term injury. Although in her favour, connections now have more Mares Hurdle alternatives, so that isn’t as big a worry. Min‘s (16/1) injury is apparently not so bad, but will he come back to hurdles? One of those Mullins horses with at least four possible targets; Yorkhill (33/1) is another. If he didn’t run in this year’s Champion Hurdle, must be quite a ig doubt over 2018. Prefer the Supreme 2nd to the winner. Melon (16/1) is lightly raced which suggests there’s plenty more to come if keeping sound. One of the favourites for the Arkle and that’s probably why he’s (on the face of it) at a tempting 16/1 for the Champion Hurdle.
Labaik (16/1) comes from the right yard, won the Supreme well but will temperament hold another year? No more than 50/50 I’d say.
Petit Mouchoir (16/1) is of a good standard, but has probably reached his peak.
If Yanworth (16/1) keeps over hurdles looks more of a stayer now.
I was with Brain Power (20/1) last week, but disappointed for a second time at Cheltenham. Runs in cheek pieces and am not fully convinced temperament is up to it.
Neon Wolf is one I thought about backing. Without being a bit too free early, letting the leader go and then making an unchracteristic mistake at the last… imo Would’ve won the Neptune with something to spare. Return to 2m could easily see a lot more improvement. But is Arkle favourite and (like Melon) am not going to make the same mistake in this race as I did last year (8/1 Altior).BUVEUR D’AIR 5/1
Value Is Everything2018 RSA Chase:
Amazed they chose the Neptune for Willoughby Court, earlier races shouted stamina. Although had a bit of an advantage in an uncontested lead and Neon Wolf is imo actually the better hurdler… Willoughby Court is a fine jumper of hurdles and more a stayer than the Harry Fry horse. No doubt now WC is equally effective on a bog or good ground. Hopefully connections don’t go for the JLT, but I’m pinning my hopes he’ll prove suited by 3m early next season anyway.WILLOUGHBY COURT 16/1
Value Is EverythingJesus lads, I don’t want to be a spoilsport but you’d want an extra zero on the end of any of those considering the amount of injuries and alternative routes we’re seeing these days. I got burnt this year with Moon Racer and Thistlecrack and I won’t be putting on a cent in the future without nrnb or maybe something at 250/1 + on the machine
Yeah, that’s a fair point. Only had two ante-post bets:
Min for the JLT and Romain de Senam for the Novices Handicap Chase.
Both of them missed the Festival due to injury and to making the cut.
The odds offered right now are only good if we were already a month or two into the new season. But right now they are just crap…..Yanworth for the Stayers Hurdle at 14’s
Goes novice chasing
Yanworth
Regardless of whether he runs in the Aintree Hurdle on the opening day of the Grand National meeting, a chasing campaign awaits next season.
King said: “I think it looked as if he does want more of a trip. He travelled very well early on. They didn’t go very quick and down the hill he was caught flat-footed, then stayed on up the hill.
“If we run him again, I would imagine we go two and a half at Aintree. If not, that would be him and he will go chasing next season.
“He was jumping big, but that is why we put the cheekpieces on. He looked like he had run an awful race, but he stayed on up the hill and with another few strides would have been sixth.
“I am pleased with the way he finished the race off.”
Yeah no idea what price but Neon Wolf for the JLT would be of interest to me, but they could go Arkle or RSA route so it’s tricky.
Seriously? Definitely going chasing? That’s mistake #1 of the 2017/18 season.
Ginge, when I saw the market up after the race, I thought “surely, surely the mugs won’t repeat their mistake and make MTOY a 50/1 shot”.
I was wrong.
Willoughby Court going chasing, Neon Wolf by all accounts going chasing?, Melon going chasing?, Labaik no idea…Annie Power being retired, Faugheen will be 10, Petit Mouchoir going chasing? Yanworth going chasing/stepping up in trip, so then what else is there?
Seriously? Definitely going chasing? That’s mistake #1 of the 2017/18 season.
Why is that a mistake? Hes a terrible hurdler, i thought hed win the neptune purely on his engine but he definitely needs a fence….. over jumps the hurdles too often, plus fry has been saying since november that hes a chaser in the making
Labaik is a CH likely but he will probably be banned before he gets to take that up
BVD likely a safe-ish antepost bet if your desperate in terms of the CH as everything else is a maybe about turning up
Too much still rests on faugheen and AP for me, personally i still believe if they came back to anywhere near there best then nothing would touch them…. too many iffs for a bet at this point
Jesus lads, I don’t want to be a spoilsport but you’d want an extra zero on the end of any of those considering the amount of injuries and alternative routes we’re seeing these days. I got burnt this year with Moon Racer and Thistlecrack and I won’t be putting on a cent in the future without nrnb or maybe something at 250/1 + on the machine
I had quite a lot of ante-post bets on Cheltenham this year. Pointer. Only three did not run, 8/1 Altior in the Champion Hurdle, 5/1 Don Cossack and 11/2 Thistlecrack in Gold Cup. Excellent value like 16/1 Djakadam and 50/1 More Of That, 7/1 Un De Sceaux and 10/1 Empire Of Dirt, 6/1 Unowhatimeanharry, 7/1 Top Notch, 16/1 Masterblueyes and more… Overall value achieved made up for losing non-runners, although not much luck on the day. One ante-post winner Apple’s Jade 11/4 available @ 9/2 on the day (went in again). Do think it’s best keeping away from horses likely to have several enteries, unless in the “win any race at Cheltenham” market.
Value Is EverythingI’ve played again with Thistlecrack @ 6/1 and stablemate Native River 14/1. Both could easily improve further.
Value Is EverythingI have bet a few though, and bar a Mug 63, I’ll do after Aintree, I’ll put a line through Cheltenham for a few months.
I bet these 3 a couple of months back.
Sutton Place 50-1 Champion Hurdle – He was one of my main fancies for The Champion Hurdle this season, but it didn’t go according to plan, and fences were mentioned. He wasn’t seen at all though until the tail end of January, when he came back out and won in nice style at Naas. He then stepped up in trip at Navan next time, and probably won with a bit more in hand than it looked. Connections quickly dismissed any notion of Cheltenham this year, and that seem strange to me, he would surely have been a player in The Champion Hurdle. I asked for a price before his Naas win, and 50’s was the best I could get, which I think tells it’s own story. I actually think it’s a poor bet now, as 50’s is poor value for a horse who now looks more likely to go Stayers route, or could very well go over fences. I think I’ll easily be able to beat 50’s as the year goes on.
Cause of Causes 125-1 Gold Cup – I’m wearing my Cause of Causes T-Shirt (Ok, it’s a onesie), drinking my Coffee out of my Cause of Causes mug as I type this, but I just think he’s worth one attempt at The Gold Cup. I wanted 200’s for him, but I didn’t get anywhere near it. After his win in The Cross Country, I would have him as potentially overpriced at 10’s for The 2018 Renewal of that race, but they must be tempted to win 4 different races at The Festival with him. Love him to bits, and have topped up at 66’s.
Tiger Roll 250-1 Gold Cup – I’m not quite wearing Tiger Roll slippers yet (they’re in the post), but I just love this horse as well. Not pocket talking, as I didn’t bet him that day, but his run in The Munster National blew me away, and I thought he was dynamite. He was a decent long term gamble for me for The 4 Miler, and he did it pretty easily to be honest. There’s surely more to come from him, and if he can keep on his feet, he’s tiny, then, don’t laugh, but I genuinely fancy him for this.
I also bet this guy today.
Bacchason 50-1 Ryanair, and 100-1 Gold Cup – Interesting that this boy didn’t go to Cheltenham, but I was hugely impressed with him at Gowran Park last time, and he must have a chance of progressing next year. Same connections as Un De Sceaux, and if they fancy sending UDS to The Gold Cup, then I think this boy could be an able deputy. He’s all potential at the moment, and a bit “leftfield”, but I like him. Another who I reckon I could get at bigger odds later in the year.
Samcro 66-1 Champion Hurdle – Highly regarded horse, and he’s been looked after carefully so far. Very much like Blow By Blow, who’s been given similar “Kid Gloves” treatment last season, I think he’s a star in the making. I can see him being the focus of a lot of discussion regarding whether or not he goes the Supreme/Neptune/Albert Bartlett route, but as I don’t really play those markets heavily Ante-Post, I thought I’d take a swing at the big one……..should he progress rapidly, and with the chance of Petit Mouchoir going chasing, and Apples Jade staying in The Mares. It’s helluva unlikely that he’all go Champion Hurdle, but worth a swing at it.
Sizing Codelco 100-1 Cheltenham Gold Cup – The Tizzard/Potts combination is dynamite just now, and I hope the hot streak can continue into next season with this guy. Loads to like about the way he fought off all comers at Aintree, and I couldn’t resist a go at that price with Paddy Power (took 66’s with Stan James as well). Connections rate him highly, and worth noting, that his poor run at Cheltenham was during that unfortunate spell, when there was clearly something affecting the yards runners. I’ve taken him at 500-1 for The Ladbroke Gold Cup/Cheltenham Gold Cup Double.
That’ll do for now, more than enough, but also worth mentioning the ones I can’t bet just now.
The Storyteller – Definitely one to keep on side of, if over his setback. Very difficult to work out the route for him, but I suspect he’s one of their “target” horses, and maybe Cross Country or Stayers, time will tell. He’s one for the “any race” market.
Mohaayed – Unlucky in The County this year, and I’ll be backing him again.
Winter Escape – Just like this horse a lot. Hard to second guess, but I’m thinking Pertemps.
Blow By Blow – I’ll be watching his campaign very closely. I like the profile of this one.
Yanworth 16/1 jlt
Petit mouchoir 16/1 Arkle
Charbel 25/1 qmcc
Blow by blow 20/1 Albert bartlettWould be my idea of bets at the moment. but I’m hoping I can hold out and leave them alone until next year.
Champion Chase:
Douvan (3/1) should be back next season, but will he be as good? And is the Champion going to be the target? Suspect it will be, but it’s nothing like a given. Even if not giving Altior full credit for the distance back to returning Fox Norton in Game Spirit… That was some performance on time as well as form. Douvan will need to be at his very best to rival Altior. Without Douvan the rest don’t look up to it and – as long as Altior makes it back in 2018 – expect the Henderson horse to start long odds-on. Next two in the betting – Mullins horses – Yorkhill (10/1) and Min (12/1) rely on Douvan not turning up. Both could be effective at 2m, but both have something to find. Ar Mad (20/1) is fragile and thought best right-handed. Fox Norton may well step up to the Ryanair. 14/1 for that race where as over double those odds 33/1 here. Went on from a 13 lengths (call it 8 because FN gave A 5 lbs) drubbing by Altior, to only just failing to reach Special Tiara (25/1) in the Champion. Latter will be 11 years old next year and won a poor renewal. If I was having another bet it would have to be Charbel (25/1). Made ground at most ostacles in Arkle, but paid for a mistake two out; still not totally out of it at the time. Very much doubt he’d have beaten Altior. The selection finds plenty once asked and wasn’t at his best. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Charbel step up in trip.Altior @ 2/1, must have a better than 33% chance.
Value Is Everything
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