Cheltenham 2019 Bets

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This topic contains 143 replies, has 36 voices, and was last updated by botchy1 botchy1 3 months, 1 week ago.

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  • #1346931
    Voleur
    Voleur
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    • Total Posts 658

    I know this years festival is far from finished, but I cant help but look ahead to 2019.

    Next year’s Arkle is a race I definitely have an early interest in.

    Melon is the obvious one, it is no secret connections believe he is a chaser in the making. The only reason he stayed over hurdles this season was to allow him to fill out a bit more and gain some much needed experience. However, after his titanic effort there in the Champion, will they be tempted to have another crack at Buveur D’Air next year? None of Willie’s Supreme or Ballymore runners certainly look like challenging the reigning champ.

    The one I really like is Laurina at 14/1. That performance today was exceptional, and connections believe she is right out of the top drawer. She is an imposing, scopey type, who would have absolutely no need for the 7lb allowance that she would conveniently receive. She even jumped some of those hurdles today like a chaser, have a look at the scope she showed at the second flight today. Of course it could be the other way around, and Laurina goes for the Champion and Melon goes for the Arkle. Or perhaps Laurina goes for the JLT and follows in the footsteps of Shattered Love. Might be worth waiting for the Any Race markets.

    Summerville boy is another who could go chasing, because he certainly doesn’t hurdle well enough to win a Champion.

    #1346934
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
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    • Total Posts 15133

    Always a popular thread Voleur, good to see it up an running.

    I usually bet a few as The Festival ends each year, including a Mug31, Mug 63, but in keeping with my overall Ante-Post approach this season, been very strict with my staking, and cut way back. Fully intend to cut back again, but to keep with tradition, I’ll probably do a small Mug 63.

    I say this every year, but the markets at Christmas will bear no resemblance to the markets in March, so a year off, you really have to be very lucky.

    Few on the shortlist though…….

    Blow By Blow – National Hunt Chase
    Delta Work – Various
    Minella Rocco – Cross Country (pending tomorrow of course)
    Rather Be – Ryanair
    Seddon – Albert Bartlett
    Smaoineamh Alainn – Mares
    Tiger Roll – Gold Cup
    White Moon – National Hunt Chase

    I couldn’t be bothered second guessing the route for Samcro this season, and have no intention of doing the same next season either, so I’ll probably take the 33’s for The Gold Cup, and leave it at that.

    That’s more than enough for now.

    #1346937
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 20414

    I took 20’s Samcro to a fiver for the Champion Hurdle. Everyone on the Samcro destination thread has an opinion as to where he may go but nobody would bet their lives on it, think he’ll go chasing but the 20’s looked okay.
    I’ll probably have a few mug acca’s along the way throughout the year in the JLT and RSA, will stick Clemmie in with the early ones.
    I won’t be going mad though as this year was too stressful with Altior with that wind op and late scare.
    Was like a long pregnancy, I went through.
    2 years to get pregnant with 2016 UDS and 2017 Douvan firing blanks
    yes it’s all good fun chipping away here and there and building up a nice kitty, all smiles and laughter
    but after 6 months it starts get heavy with the weight of expectations
    then nearer the time the sweating kicks in then the painful feeling of deja vu kicks in as thoughts of the last two years arise with Altior hitting that flat spot like a sudden attack of a migraine, even Ordinary World went past him at one point. Excuses are already going through the mind as the gas from my lower region and air from the open window starts to hit. ‘The Wind op, the puss in the foot’ but wait, hang on, it’s coming, it’s coming up the hill, one more push, one more big push.
    YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSS
    Get in there my son….. :yahoo:
    The only thing missing is TAPK squeezing my hand.
    …..
    Not going through that again, no way Jose.
    What’s that…?
    Altior 7/4
    he’s only got Footpad to beat
    oh go on then
    chip away, chip away

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1346943

    Cheltenham Novice Chase
    Participant
    • Total Posts 299

    So far the most impressive performances have been: Presenting Percy, Samcro, Laurina, Altior, Tiger Roll, Footpad and Relegate.

    Others whom I’m keeping my eye on for some value are: Melon, Douvan, Apples Jade and Defi De Seuil. I would imagine one could get some huge odds on Defi De Seuil because of the dark cloud over Hobbs’ stable.

    I think this year’s bumper was jam packed full of good horses too.

    VTC – You mention Blow by Blow for the NH Chase and I think that is a good shout. I could also see Cracking Smart going there too.

    I’m still a fan of Petit Mouchoir and had it not been for some poor tactics I think he could have given Footpad a real race. Very odd performance from Davy Russell who is normally a very astute jockey.

    #1347100
    Voleur
    Voleur
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    • Total Posts 658

    Fantastic call with Blow by Blow, VTC. A pity you couldn’t get a price before that performance. :good:

    #1347104
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
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    • Total Posts 15133

    Cheers Voleur, and I doubt I’ll be getting a price afterwards either lol.

    #1347134

    darren83
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5208

    FOOTPAD 6/1 Queen mother champion chase

    Min and Douvan not good enough could see them going up in trip while Mullins say future gold cup horse he is that to but feeling next year 2m is ideal trip if race get run in mad gallop like arkle see it suit Altior and also this fellow.

    LAURINA 14/1 Champion hurdle

    Agree with opening post on this horse but when looking at Mullins horses for hurdle i think he look at them and not got any of them who good enough.And this filly looks top draw and think while her future a chaser no harm going big hurdle race next year.

    KALASHNIKOV 14/1 Arkle chase

    Looks a chaser and ran a blinder on ground not suit him be better on faster ground and looks a top notch chasing prospect and think could be one to beat next year as think Summerville boy and Black OP look like going over further in trip.

    SHATTERED LOVE 25/1 Gold cup

    When looking at Giggistown chasers for gold cup not look top class and not shock me if this mare run over this trip has won at 3m and get weight allowance to no reason why she not get even further in trip be intresting horse here.

    Not seen prices for Carefully Selected but think he one for ballymore novice hurdle was staying on at end after loss in bumper but he one for that race.

    Any views guys

    #1347153
    botchy1
    botchy1
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    • Total Posts 2899

    Took 40/1 Presenting Percy before the RSA for the Gold Cup. Determined to not even look at any prices till after the Arc. :yes:

    #1347352
    Ben_Bernanke
    Ben_Bernanke
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    • Total Posts 638

    Might be worth taking a chance on horses that underperformed at this years festival in the hope that it’s better ground in 2019, I can imagine there being a lot of very well handicapped novices this year that will have great chances in handicaps like the County next year.

    #1347356

    silent assassins
    Participant
    • Total Posts 200

    VCT Blow By Blow 20/1 National Hunt Chase @ Bet365

    #1347374
    IBRacing
    IBRacing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 525

    10/1 Might Bite for the Gold Cup is an insane price.

    If the ground was normal Gold Cup ground he would’ve won Friday. Decent ground next year and it’ll take something special to beat him.

    #1347376

    Cheltenham Novice Chase
    Participant
    • Total Posts 299

    One horse whom we shouldn’t forget about is Labaik. Assuming he’s back fit next year and overcome some of his mischievousness at the start he could be a great bet for the Champion Hurdle or Arkle depending on whether he’s sent chasing or remains hurdling. Does anyone know the plans?

    #1347385
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
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    • Total Posts 25708

    Other than Samcro I don’t see any of the male novices having enough speed for the Champion Hurdle. Most of the good ones (including the Supreme one/two Summerville Boy and Kalashnikov) are apparently going chasing anyway. Apples Shakira possibly, but provided she settles will stay further. Five year olds don’t have a good record either and in the same stable/ownership as the favourite – has the Mares Hurdle as an alternative… Laurina – impressive in the Mares Novice. Team tactics meant victorious by a longer distance than would’ve been the case, but she’s still very very good. Trouble is I suspect she’ll only end up in this if Mullins doesn’t have anyone else – that said doesn’t have much at present.

    This year’s Champion a two horse race. Melon the improver that only lost by a head after being in front on the run-in. On the face of it looks value at 8/1, over double the horse that beat him. But with size to make a chaser and currently around the same price for the Arkle – if Melon goes chasing Mullins doesn’t have much for the Champion. Laurina could try to emulate the stable’s Annie Power (mare switched here when defending Champion Faugheen got injured). Faugheen is too old now, regressing and likely to have one last run stepped up in trip. Melon disappointed from time to time too, can pull too hard in more slowly run affairs/”trials”. So if backing this year’s second to go one better I’d rather wait until beaten and (in all probability) price lengthens.

    Samcro has undoubted great potential, but with his 2019 destination unsure (priced up for five races) difficult to know whether any odds give “value”. However, sometimes it’s too good to be true and just tells you what is not going to be targeted. 10/1 Champion Hurdle might seem great value, but with the owner’s love of chasing is very unlikely to remain hurdling – so 10/1 is all about liklihood of running. Be a third of that price if an intended runner. Gambling on him jumping poorly over fences (either on course next year or at home) isn’t for me, especially as jumps hurdles fluently and therefore probable to do the same over larger obsticles.

    More likely to get a run for your money with Buveur D’Air. Henderson’s horse likely to remain difficult to beat throughout this and next season. Seems a sound racehorse and should go in to next year’s race in form. Finally, has previously shown even better ability than Tuesday’s win. Turn of foot more effective given conventional Cheltenham going. If I were a bookmaker’s odds compiler would be putting Buveur D’Air in @ 2/1.

    2019 Champion Hurdle:
    7/2 (B365) Buveur D’Air (min 11/4)

    value is everything
    #1347415
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 15133

    @SilentAsassins
    Thanks for the heads up. Trying my hardest here not to get involved, but I have to have that in a multi at the very least.

    #1347429
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 20414

    Didtheyleaveuoutto 20/1 Supreme Novices Hurdle
    you can write his run off in the bumper due to the going

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
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