Cheltenham 2019 Bets

[Jasolong]

Nichols now on 8 winners 😂 as good as he is I think it would be naive to think this to be just a coincidence on the first Saturday back after all the flu disruptions for one of the only yards who was pretty much unaffected by the whole thing as he had all his horses jabbed in December. Im certainly in the camp that there were a few performances amplified today by the fact that there was some horses running who have either had a boost jab in the last couple weeks or have had their yards disrupted in some way by the whole flu issue. I don’t care if anyone thinks it’s all true form today because I’m pretty set on the fact this isn’t a coincidence

[ham]

No potato they dont all do it the same way atall and if you think the recency of flue jabs alot of todays runners will have been given in the last two weeks would have no effect atall your a mile off…

Henderson is the main one feeling the pinch atm and id wary of horses like top notch going forward who have on record been said to feel the effects of these jabs in the past..

And if you think this was a “normal saturday” for nicholls, what racing you been watching in recent times?

[Jasolong]

Think potato has put cyrname down as a 180 horse after today lol

[potato]

Henderson is the main one feeling the pinch atm and id wary of horses like top notch going forward who have on record been said to feel the effects of these jabs in the past..

On what basis is Henderson struggling?

He only had 3 runners today, none were favourites and all were expected on paper to get beaten.

Before today following the shutdown he was 3 wins from 6 and that’s a 50% strike rate.

It’s completely untrue that Henderson is struggling at present. It’s an outrageous claim to make and it has no foundation whatsoever.

Almost all major stables will be doing the flu jabs at the same or very similar time period.

The unusual thing today was the number of runners Nicholls had today and that was due to the shutdown, he had more that he wanted to run than normal.

Without using a calculator that’s about a 30% strike rate. Its nothing unusual.in terms of strike rate on a Saturday. He has had better than that strike rate before, much better many my times.

In actual fact going into todays racing Februaru 2019 was Nicky Hendersons 2nd best ever February strike rate. It isnt ofer yet but it is on course to potentially be his best ever February in terms of strike rate as there is still 12 racing days left. Even with an average run over next 12 days this is still likely to be his 2nd best Feb of all time.

[ham]

Never said henderson was struggling in the sens your saying, i said hes feeling the pinch with jabs, the likes of santini, angels breath amongst many others inelegible to run

The rest of what you said is just nonsense… not worth the strain on my fingers lol

[Vautour]

I’ve backed evevry grade 1 now NRNB, a few antepost, but mostly NRNB. I’ve also backed the National Hunt Chase and Cross Country. Will leave the handicaps, the Foxhunters and the Mares Novice until closer the time.

As usual I have a bias towards Mullins/Elliot and my week rests with them; hopefully they can repeat last years heights

Supreme: Klassical Dream 7/1e/w NRNB, Tornado Flyer 25/1 e/w NRNB
Arkle: Cilaos Emery 5/1 NRNB
Champion Hurdle: Laurina 4/1 NRNB
Mares Hurdle: Benie Des Dieux 7/4 Ante Post
National Hunt Chase: Ballyward 4/1 Ante post
Ballymore: Carefully Selected 16/1e/w NRNB
RSA: Delta Work 7/2 NRNB
Champion Chase w/o Altior: Min 5/2 NRNB
Cross Country: Tiger Roll 5/2 Ante Post
Champion Bumper: Blue Sari 4/1 NRNB
JLT: Hardline 12/1 e/w NRNB
RyanAir: Footpad 5/1 NRNB
Stayers: Faugheen 9/1 e/w NRNB
Triumph: Tiger Tap Tap 11/1 e/w NRNB
Albert Bartlett: Dinons 16/1 e/w NRNB
Gold Cup: Bellshill 10/1 e/w NRNB

Mainly a Mullins bias for the graded races; will have more of an Elliot bias for the handicaps.

[ham]

5/2 min w/o altior nrnb?!?! Whos gifting that???

[Vautour]

Was Paddy Power; got it after the 4 Championship races went NRNB. Long gone now

[ham]

Not a market id usually look at antepost, will need to keep an eye on that in the future!

[Vautour]

It wasn’t ante-post, Ham. It was NRNB. They’ve been NRNB for the Championship races for a while now, inclding the without Altior market

[ham]

yeah i just meant antepost as in a while before the race i would tend to only look at that market the day of or slightly before, with the nrnb concession its a solid price!

Dont have too many mullins, or as many as i normally would in my antepost bets but i still likenthe look of camelia de cotte myself in the jlt, especially if the weather is similar to now at the time!

[ham]

Probably wrapped up my antepost bets tonight for this, a fair few done as usual, have a couple leftover, made a mess of more races this year than any other

Supreme

Champagne platinum @25s
Prince daubrelle @78s
Galvin @154s
Aramon @28s
Klassical dream @20/1

Arkle

Cilaos emery @18/1
Hardline @25/1
Le richebourg @10/1

Champion hurdle

Laurina @10/1
Silver streak @85s
Saldier@60s

Mares hurdle
Missy tata @55s and 40/1 e/w

4 miler
Ballyward @20/1

Ballymore

Galvin @580-590s
Klassical dream @10/1 NRNB
Honeysuckle @22/1 NRNB

Xc
Tiger roll @5/4 NRNB, all in on this for me, was going to wait until the day but price can only get worse not really worth posting lol

Bumper
Abacadabras @25/1
Malone road @8/1

Jlt
Hardline
Vinndication
Camelia de cotte @25/1 NRNB
Coquin mans

Ryanair
Monalee @10/1-16/1

Stayers
Bapaume @25/1 e/w
Scarpeta
Bachasson

Mares novice

Salasaretta @14/1-28/1 biggest bet antepost, not looking great.
Honeysuckle @6/1 NRNB
Sinoria @12/1 NRNB

Albert bartlett

Cap york @150s
Rhinestone 25/1 e/w & 55s
Easy game @25/1

Gold cup
Al boum potato @20-50s

Have a few multis about, never worth posting as there usually a mile off, wish i was sharper with a few, hovered over sir erec at 20/1 and delta work at 20/1 and sat them out, will likely back both on the day. Think thats it until i get to the track and start laying everything i initaially liked LOL

[Venture to Cognac]

Some nice ones in there Ham, good luck.

[Mike007]

My Cheltenham antepost ew portfolio is done….

Klassical Dream NRNB Supreme Nov Hurdle 8-1
Elixir Du Nutz Supreme Nov Hurdle 9-1
Annamix 20-1 Supreme Nov Hurdle

Lalor Arkle Chase 10-1

Give Me A Copper Ultima Handicap Chase 14-1

Laurina Champion Hurdle 12-1
Apple’s Jade Champion Hurdle 6-1

Ballyward National Hunt Chase 33-1
Champagne Classic National Hunt Chase 9-1

Battleoverdoyen Ballymore Nov Hurdle 14-1
Champ Ballymore Nov Hurdle 10-1

Topofthegame RSA Chase 14-1
Santini NRNB RSA Chase 4-1

Lostintranslation JLT Nov Chase 6-1
Defi Du Seuil JLT Nov Chase 6-1
Master Dino JLT Nov Chase 12-1 LOST

Monalee Ryanair Chase 8-1

Sir Erec (win) Triumph Hurdle 9-4

Commander of Fleet Albert Bartlett 10-1
Dickie Diver Albert Bartlett 14-1

Presenting Percy Gold Cup 8-1
Clan Des Obeaux NRNB Gold Cup 8-1

[peter .h]

This is the first time I’ve ever done multiple antepost Cheltenham bets. Almost always wait until the day before or morning of as it’s such a minefield leading up to it. For whatever reason however I decided to have a go this year. So far my lost bets are…

Lil Rockefeller – Gold Cup
Bright Forecast – Supreme (nrnb)
Didtheyleaveyououto – Supreme
Tiger Tap Tap – Triumph (cashed out)

My current bets are…

Gold Cup
Thistlecrack 20
Elegant Escape 25

Stayers
Paisley Park 25
Lil Rockefeller 50

JLT
Defi Du Seuil 5
Lostintranslation 6

Ryanair
Aso 20

Triumph
Sir Erec 6

Ballymore
Bright Forecast 33

Multiples include…

Ew Trixie
Paisley Park 10 (Stayers)
Aso 20 (Ryanair)
Thistlecrack 8 (Gold Cup)

Ew 4 Fold
Buveur D’Air 7/4 (Champion Hurdle)
Paisley Park 2 (Stayers)
Defi Du Seuil 5 (JLT)
Sir Erec 11/4 (Triumph)

Ew 6 Folds
Buveur D’Air 7/4 (Champion Hurdle)
Paisley Park 2 (Stayers)
Defi Du Seuil 5 (JLT)
Lostintranslation 6 (JLT)
Sir Erec 11/4 (Triumph)
Topofthegame 7 (RSA)
Thistlecrack 8 (Gold Cup)

It isn’t the most professional approach, but it certainly filled an evening or two!

[raymo61]

After Mullins putting me off ante post bets for Cheltenham I have been far more circumspect this year being the first year back so to speak!!

No handicap bets yet I will save the study for them for the Sunday before!!

Here are mine that still have a chance of running!!
SUPREME
Aramon 16/1 14/1 17.5
ARKLE
Voix De Reve 12/1 20/1
Paloma Blue 16/1
CHAMPION HURDLE
Buveur D’Air 2/1 7/4
Brain Power 20/1
OLGB MARES
Mia’s Storm 25/1 20/1 32
Roksana 16/1 14/1 19
NATIONAL HUNT CHASE
Mister Malarkey 20/1 16/1
BALLYMORE
Battleoverdoyen 6/1
Downtown Getaway 33/1 40/1
RSA
Drovers Lane 33/1 25/1
Now Mcginty 66/1 50/1
QUEEN MOTHER
Altior Evs
Diego Du Charmil 40/1 50/1
RYANAIR
Frodon 25/1 20/1 12/1
Aso 25/1
STAYERS
Paisley Park 12/1
Kilbricken Storm 40/1 33/1
Triumph
Adjali 25/1
Red Force One 40/1
ALBERT BARTLETT
Lisnagar Oscar 12/1
Ask Ben 33/1
GOLD CUP
Thistlecrack 12/1
Al Boum Photo 14/1

I will be happy if over half of these turn up let alone win!!

Good Luck Guys Two weeks to go

[raymo61]

As well as these I do have eleven losing bets but I thought it would be daft listing all them and rubbing my own nose in it!!

[Author]

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