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Cheers guys, glad I’m not on my own with this one.
Well Jack – I know what you mean. For what it’s worth (if anything), Mullins did nominate this race for Benie Des Dieux yesterday. Has he ever been known to change his mind?
Willie will have VVM ready for this, she’s not far off Apple’s at her best and is a nice price at 9/1.
Pants i’d imagine you’re right that he will have her as fit as he can, but coming from a lay off, you’d just hope she retains her ability.She didnt really please him at all last year, and i think he always thought she was better than she showed. There was that chat about her being off colour i seem to remember and ruby jumped ship.
Also, another worry would be, if she came back to alst seasons form, it looks to me like AJ has improved again this year and would probably beat her further!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I guess Quevega was unique but if anybody can ready one for this race it’s Wllie.
Agree though Jack, AJ is going to have to under perform for VVM to beat her but some of these shorties will…just a matter of taking on the right ones!
I wouldn’t say Apples Jade is a wheelbarrow job because the price has gone now at 8/13, but I have loaded her up in a ludicrous number of multiples. I think she wins and wins well.
The W/O Apples Jade market is the one that interest me now. I really like Jer’s Girl @ 10/1
I won’t be having a bet until in running. Apples Jade often doesn’t look to be going as well as his rivals. Likely to be much better odds in-running.
Value Is EverythingYeah fair point, especially coming back from a break…she could need stoking!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Just had a conservative bet on Benie Des Dieux at 10/1. I just feel that she’s the only mare in the race that could possibly beat Apples Jade as we don’t quite know yet just how good she is; especially over hurdles.
We know Vroum Vroum Mag can’t beat the Apple even when in peak condition and Let’s Dance is both probably not good enough and more likely to end up in the Stayers.
Benie is pretty nailed on to run here and I’d imagine will be 2nd favourite around the 4/1 mark on the day.
I’m sure people will argue why not just back the Apple at 4/6, well I’m not so sure she’s the most reliable odds-on shot I’ve ever seen and would rather take her on at those odds than be with her.
You’re right about VVM last season jackh-
She didnt really please him at all last year, and i think he always thought she was better than she showed. There was that chat about her being off colour i seem to remember and ruby jumped ship.She came back from that late January race in Doncaster where she struggled to beat Midnight Jazz with “a bit of a cold” and I suspect she wasn’t quite back to 100% for Cheltenham.
I share your concern about the layoff- especially as she pulled up lame after Punchestown and has been scratched from her engagements this year due to lameness.But I wouldn’t write her off. I am biased as she is one of my favourite horses in training but I think they must reckon she has a chance of winning this or they would have just retired her and put her in foal. (Mind you with a mare’s gestation length there was no point putting her in foal in the autumn so they’d be waiting till spring anyway).
I disagree with this Charles:
We know Vroum Vroum Mag can’t beat the Apple even when in peak condition
We can’t know this- VVM was only beaten a short head by AJ on seasonal reappearance last year when AJ had already had two starts; and may not have been back to peak fitness for Cheltenham when beaten 1.5l.My main concern is the layoff and jackh’s point that AJ may well have improved past her.
Take a look back at last year’s Mares Hurdle and you will see VVM took the outside route for most of the race, four horses wide, if memory serves me correctly. I think I’ve recalled that correctly because I remember getting frustrated with the jockey for taking such a wide path. That had to lose her many lengths over the course of the race. I think it would be premature to assume she couldn’t reverse the form with Apples Jade.
Hmm, it just doesn’t quite add up to me with Vroum Vroum Mag
1. Vibes were poor with her before Cheltenham last year, she was rejected by Walsh in favour of Let’s Dance and was weak in the market on the day
2. Until a few days ago, Mullins was talking about retiring her and getting her covered. The ‘straight to Cheltenham’ approach does not sound like a deliberate plan in this case
3. Though Mullins did train Quevega to win this race ‘cold’ off a break many times, Quevega often won it in spite of looking rusty mid-race in much weaker renewals than this one. A similar performance from Vroum Vroum Mag would leave her well short again three good mares, at least one of whom already holds her quite easily on bare form
I don’t see how anyone can be betting her at the prices right now.
I wouldn’t agree Apples Jade holds Vroum Vroum Mag quite easily LS. They’ve met twice, both times Apples Jade had the run of the race, with VVM having too much to do at Punchestown, where she should have won imo, before charting a wide passage at Cheltenham, so there’s obviously not much between them on last season’s form.
You could take your number 2 point as a positive. If they bring her to Cheltenham she’s obviously showing them something that warrants it. I’ve heard many interviews with Rich Richie before where he speaks about looking after his mares and I very much doubt they’d risk her at this stage of her career, so close to retiring to the breeding shed, if they didn’t think she was something close to her best.
It was Limini who Walsh chose over VVM last year, which was unsurprising given Limini beat Apples Jade in the run up to the festival, albeit when Apples was likely to have been in need of the run, and also given VVM’s own uninspiring prep.
This time around I’d be surprised if Walsh selects Lets Dance ahead of VVM. I’ve backed VVM e/w at 7/1 (NRNB) and if I see Walsh’s name beside Lets Dance I’ll have a fair idea the game is up. I wouldn’t be nearly as downhearted if he rides Beni Des Dieux, as that one is at least unexposed in this sphere and open to improvement. I’m not certain BDD will run, she’s had a very ‘un-Mullins’-like prep for a hurdle race at the festival.
The noises coming out of the Mullins camp are good and it wouldn’t surprise me to see VVM well supported in the market. With the race being between three of them (AJ, VVM & BDD) for me, she rates as a good each bet imo.
The concern, as you point out, is the lack of a run. It’s hardly an ideal prep. On the other hand, it’s potentially a better prep than last year when she went mighty close. If I was going to be getting stuck in to Apples Jade I’d have preferred to see her have a run since Christmas too. In the past she’s looked rusty of a break, but it’s possible, likely even, that was as much down to Elliott bringing her along slowly than anything else.
Considering BDD hasnt jumped a hurdle in UK/IRE and VVM hasnt raced since a seeminly bad injury….is it crazy i’d still fancy those two more than LD?
Really dont rate her, and her form isn’t all that anyway.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Theyv made it pretty clear that LD is not in for for whatever reason, i think theyd tell you themselves that BDD and VVM have a far better chance than LD
Personally i was a bit worried as to why youd send BDD back over hurdles considering the way she jumps a fence, but they see her daily, thats quite telling for me, the without market @5/1 is tempting but ill hold off for the time being as id much rather she went ryanair lol
I’ve taken some of that 5/1 w/o, huge price and simply wrong IMO.
Think they want a season to get experience into BDD before going for a handicap or a Ryanair that she’d arguably struggle in at this stage.
Ham its not a worry at all about BDD. She isn’t good enough to win the Ryanair so why not go for the grade 1 that’s easier won? Makes total sense that she would go for this race. They did the same with VVM. She wouldn’t have been good enough to win an open grade 1 chase so they put her back over hurdles.
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