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Im having a very boring evening so I’ve done a bit of research on fallers in chases
The following is the percentage of fallers (F or U in the formbook) to runners for every chase in the UK since 2000. The national course at Aintree is included I’ll try to filter that out later to get a more realistic percentage for the Mildmay course
AINTREE23.27%<br>KELSO13.25%<br>STRATFORD13.16%<br>DONCASTER12.66%<br>AYR12.63%<br>TOWCESTER12.39%<br>FAKENHAM12.32%<br>WINCANTON12.12%<br>TAUNTON11.92%<br>MUSSELBURGH11.83%<br>WOLVERHAMPTON11.78%<br>CATTERICK11.77%<br>PLUMPTON11.72%<br>SOUTHWELL11.71%<br>WETHERBY11.54%<br>CHELTENHAM11.25%<br>LEICESTER10.40%<br>HUNTINGDON10.08%<br>LUDLOW10.04%<br>NEWCASTLE9.94%<br>UTTOXETER9.72%<br>CARTMEL9.62%<br>PERTH8.76%<br>EXETER8.75%<br>MARKET RASEN8.75%<br>CHEPSTOW8.63%<br>HEREFORD8.32%<br>ASCOT8.29%<br>LINGFIELD8.00%<br>FONTWELL7.96%<br>KEMPTON7.84%<br>BANGOR-ON-DEE7.49%<br>FOLKESTONE7.46%<br>HEXHAM7.39%<br>WORCESTER7.28%<br>NEWTON ABBOT7.22%<br>HAYDOCK7.11%<br>SEDGEFIELD6.91%<br>NEWBURY6.86%<br>SANDOWN6.70%<br>WARWICK6.45%<br>CARLISLE5.04%
Cheers<br>
Interesting stuff and I’m surprised to see Sandown so far down the list – I’ve always thought that their fences were among the most difficult to jump but maybe they get better horses running in their races.
Kelso suprises me a tad, as I’d never had its fences down as especially trappy, even given the sharp nature of the track. Stratford, however, seems about right, and the fact they’ve still been mucking around with the siting of the fences in the straight indicates the executive there know there’s a problem. You see some pretty dreadful falls along there almost every meeting.
Worcester I would expect to rise up the list as the sample years progress, given how the re-packing of all the fences ahead of the 2006 season seemed to catch out a lot of very average jumpers. Coversely I’d hope to be proved right that Ludlow is dropping down the rankings following the moving of Tricky Trevor a while ago.
Whilst at Towcester last week either HJ or Rory – maybe both – asserted that the last downhill fence just before the stiff climb apparently has the highest attrition rate of any single fence in the country now, more so than the aforementioned Tricky Trevor or the first in the straight at Rasen. Certainly jumping downhill seems to be something which especially catches out a lot of horses: it’s why the obstacles before the home turn at Cheltenham are particularly feared, and probably why Carlisle and Warwick – both hilly, of course, but with all obstacles jumped either on level or uphill ground – attain the fewest fallers of anywhere.
I suspect SC is spot on where Sandown is concerned (you don’t see too many 0-85 handicap chases there!), and I’d wonder further if the downhill fence after the straight is the principal contributor to the course’s attrition rate on the same basis as above.
Jeremy<br>(graysonscolumn)<br>
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Thanks for sharing this info, Cavelino.
I am really surprised at the variation between Carlisle at the bottom of the list and Kelso at the top (Aintree is a special case, as you have already mentioned). I would have expected a greater degree of uniformity in the percentage of fallers.
Looking at the six at the bottom of the list, you might suggest that slow ground (Carlisle, Sedgefield, Haydock and Warwick often come up soft) or classier horses (Haydock, Sandown, Newbury) reduces the risk of fallers, and that stiffer fences or a stiff track might actually be helpful to horses within limits (Aintree and Towcester being examples of tracks falling outside those limits).
But in that case what is Newton Abbot, with its lower class of horse and fast summer ground, doing as the next one up the scale?
By the way, Cavelino, next time you have a boring evening, is there any chance you could produce the same analysis for the Irish tracks? :)
Musselburgh higher than Cheltenham? What’s that all about?
Surely Cheltenham is harder to jump than Musselburgh?
So is it just that the horses that run at Muss are low quality and can’t jump, while Chelt attracts top quality chasers who can jump?
Steve
Then we have Fakenham in 7th place — Fakenham I ask you!! The fences are so small they run point-to-points there and the course is basically flat.
So there surely has to be a correlation between the relatively high percentage of fallers and the quality of the horses that compete there (although there is the odd good one, I remember Ollie Magern winning a novice chase there two seasons ago).
I’ll do the Irish courses and also analyse the figures in more detail when I get a chance.
Cav
The point to make about Fakenham is that it’s the fastest, sharpest jumps circuit of them all. Seems ironic that a course so much a part of the fabric of low-grade / amateur chasing that it was known as the West Norfolk Hunt into the 1960s should be the jumps course that most resembles Chester, but there you go.
The upshot of this is you get very average horses pelting at – and sometimes over – fences at speeds a lot of them can’t cope with, and that’s when accidents happen. I don’t know if CR has equivalent stats for fallers in hurdle races country-wide, but I do know that barely a meeting goes by at Fakenham without something coming to grief in its selling hurdle at least.
Ollie Magern did indeed run in a chase at Fakenham a while back, as did Brother Joe and Our Armageddon. The Geoff Hubard Memorial is always a pretty decent contest as novice chases in October go, and is almost certainly the most prestigious chase at the course outside of its double whammy of hunter chases over Easter. There is also a Class 3 0-125 handicap hurdle over 2m on Cheltenham Gold Cup day (I was there for it this year), but otherwise the racing programme there is cheerfully and uniformally modest.
Jeremy<br>(graysonscolumn)<br>
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
In order to gauge fallers due to class of horse, could stats be compiled of the fate of the favourite in chases at all courses?
Of course such labour is beneath me… :biggrin:
Here is the average number of runners per chase per course for all chase races since 2000.  Apologies for the formatting
AINTREE12<br>ASCOT7<br>AYR8<br>BANGOR-ON-DEE8<br>CARLISLE8<br>CARTMEL8<br>CATTERICK9<br>CHELTENHAM12<br>CHEPSTOW9<br>DONCASTER8<br>EXETER9<br>FAKENHAM7<br>FOLKESTONE8<br>FONTWELL7<br>HAYDOCK7<br>HEREFORD10<br>HEXHAM10<br>HUNTINGDON8<br>KELSO8<br>KEMPTON8<br>LEICESTER8<br>LINGFIELD7<br>LUDLOW9<br>MARKET RASEN8<br>MUSSELBURGH8<br>NEWBURY9<br>NEWCASTLE8<br>NEWTON ABBOT8<br>PERTH8<br>PLUMPTON7<br>SANDOWN8<br>SEDGEFIELD9<br>SOUTHWELL8<br>STRATFORD9<br>TAUNTON9<br>TOWCESTER8<br>UTTOXETER8<br>WARWICK8<br>WETHERBY7<br>WINCANTON7<br>WINDSOR7<br>WOLVERHAMPTON8<br>WORCESTER10<br>
(Edited by Cavelino Rampante at 1:29 am on Nov. 9, 2006)
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