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Thats a great post Bulwark
Wouldnt it also be correct to say that tactical speed is the ability to move up and down the gears with ease?
If you’re considering backing Sir Percy – and I have backed him in every race bar one, being a vocal fan of the animal since his maiden – I would be slightly concerned about the form of the stable.
Only Makderah, (in a relatively easy race for her) and Zoom One, (magnificently ridden) have bucked the trend.
Be it bad luck or whatever, Marcus Tregoning has had quite a few fancied horses disappoint recently. Stables go through this as you all know.
The wonderful 3-y-o could be an exception to the trend, as he showed in the Vintage last year, but there are plenty of imponderables to consider and I won’t be visiting Ocean Finance to pile in.
I do hope I am wrong by the way; I’m taking the lad down to see him whatever.
I’ve backed Sir Percy 5pts @ 7/2 with Premierbet – they double your winnings up to £250 on your first bet. (Effectively 7/1 up to £62.50 stake)
You don’t need to ask who I’ll be laying in the champ stakes …
Get stuck into him lads, I’m hoping for 5/2 or under!
Max – Stable Form is not something that ever really worries me a great deal as i think that a stable is only as good as the horses in it, in the same way as a jockey (crapo rides aside) is only as good as the horses he rides. According to the stable form sixties icon was never going to win the leger, but in truth he was a very good horse in a stable that was largely out of form, in the same mould as sir percy, in my opinion, marcus tregoning doesnt have the strongest of stables anyway, but thats not to say he doesnt have any good horses, he does and sir percy is one of them. Worry not max.
DJ-What is regulation speed? Tactical speed is something which i have never seen measured, and it differs from top speed ratings. Hurricane run is a horse who in my opinion has a very high cruising speed but lacks the tactical speed of a top level horse in slow group1s over 1m4f (let alone 1m2f). He was lucky at ascot but unlucky at longchamp, he is usually at his best in races where he can outstay the opposition and at his worst in races where a turn of foot is called for.
Sir percy wont have the faster pace and faster horse that he had in the guineas and he wont have the extra 2furlongs which he had to overcome in the derby, this will be easy for him. The turn of foot he showed in the derby is something which looks beyonds the capabilities of anything else in this field at 1m2f (Araafa would possibly beat him at 1mile).
Agreed clivex. It is the ability to go up and down through the gears.
Sir Percy’s chance seems to rest on taking the opinion that he has progressed along the same lines at George Washington and Dylan Thomas since the Derby because there is no way imo that a mere reproduction of his Derby effort will be good enough in this race. I couldn’t entertain backing him at around 7/2 or 4/1 as I think you are having to take too much on trust.
I also think some of the comparison’s with Pegasus remain wide of the mark, he’s clearly as fragile physically as what George Washington is mentally and has something to prove against his elders. I’ll be looking to take him on with Pride in a match bet. Whilst I wouldn’t be surprised if she finds one too good, she’s sure to give her running I feel whereas there is a chance Sir Percy could bomb out.
There is a chance that sir percy (like any horse in that race) could bomb out but he has never ran a bad race in his career, so it is unlikely. Hurricane lacks the turn of foot, pride lacks the class of sir percy (her arc second reads better than it really was), araafa is highly unlikely to see out the trip, and really the rest of the field fall into one of those 3 categories. I honestly think that betting against him is throwing money away.
Sleeping Indian looks to have a huge chance. With the ground likely to be on the soft side of good, this soft ground specialist must have a great chance. His comeback at Newbury was a very good one, beating subsequent 9 LENGTHS GROUP 1 WINNER Spinning Queen. Jimmy Fortune said he’d get a mile easily afterwards, so he can use his stamina and speed. He was unlucky not to finish closer to Caradak in the Prix la Foret, especially on quick ground which wouldn’t have suited him so well.
In the Ces, I would have liked Dorothy’s Friend, but he broke down yesterday morning on the gallops. Saint Alebe’s Ebor win is one of the finest rides I’ve ever seen, and would love to see him get the win, but Detroit City looks smart over hurdles and obviously has enough speed to win on the flat, so he’s my pick.
I was gutted for Maraahel in the Juddmonte, especially after Richard started celebrating, as he dearly deserves a Group 1 win, but I think it was a falsely run race, with the soft ground and slow pace going against Dylan Thomas. Pride I’m sure needs 1m 4f in Group 1 company, Olympian Odyssey is not back to his ‘best’, Araafa I don’t think will run. It comes down to between Hurricane Run, Sir Percy and Ouija Board IMO. Hurricane Run will need to be ridden from the front to win – a great back/lay in-running i think. I really am not sure about Sir Percy, so cannot be a bet for me. So this leaves Ouija Board. She got very close to Dylan Thomas, who I’m sure would be favourite if he was running. As much as I don’t like Dettori, him on-board and Spencer off is a plus in my book, and she can win off a fast or slow pace. However, if the ground turned soft or heavy, I’d be ploughing into Pride.
In the Dewhurst, my shortlist is Hamoody, Teofilo and Halicarnassus. Hamoody may have been unimpressive at Goodwood, but I think he wants 7f minimum. This could be his trip. Halicarnassus’s HQ form is solid. Admiralofthefleet winning the Royal Lodge gave it a huge boost, but I couldn’t see the Ballydoyle horse winning this if he was running, so I don’t see why Channon’s horse should. So the pick is Teofilo. I don’t think he’s the best 2yo around at the moment (Eagle Mountain), but he should win this without much fuss.
The Rockfel looks an ok renewal. Finscail Beo looks a standout based on her performance in France, but it looked a weak race in my eyes. Rahiyah may also get close, but I’m going for Sudoor. Finished just 2 lengths behind Simply Perfect at York, and beat a very decent filly on her debut Cast In Gold (hasn’t won since, but Fallon was raving about her after the race to RUK). I think the softer ground will suit, and can go in at a decent price.
Percussionist will relish the likely underfoot conditions, and can’t be excused his last run on quick ground. But I think the race is a poor renewal, with the next best being The Last Drop, but the St. Leger stretched his stamina to the limit, and I can’t see him staying.
I haven’t got a clue about the Darley. I’d have to wait to the final decs to make a decision. Art Museum, Sir Gerard, Pinson look to be on my shortlist though, with preference possibly for the latter since Godolphin are flying high right now.
Quote: from Bulwark on 1:51 pm on Oct. 11, 2006[br]pride lacks the class of sir percy (her arc second reads better than it really was)
Would you care to elaborate, Bulwark?
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Much as I like Sir Percy, there is no way I could see his Derby form as being any better than a number of Pride’s recent runs.<br>Since her 2nd to David Junior last year, she has been beaten a neck at Sha Tin, on the wrong ground, by a horse unbeaten in his 4 previous gp1’s at 10f+; beaten Hurricane Run fair and square at St Cloud, and finished an unfortunate 2nd in the Arc de Triomphe, again on the wrong ground.<br> 4 races, each one all-aged, mixed sex races at the highest level, and each one a better performance imo, than SP’s Derby. <br>Her only other runs being clearly prep races, she has shown as consistent form as SP, but at a higher level, imo.<br>For what it’s worth, I also feel that she has a better turn of foot than Sir Percy, particularly over 10f.
On the balance of sir percys turn of foot, his ability to handle a hard gallop and the fact he goes on the ground, means its only a question of whether the real sir percy shows up.
There are those who question the strength of the epsom form, and i am the first as it was a poor derby to me, but it showed to me enough to say (as with his guineas run) that he looked like a potentially very good 1m2f horse. He has everything for it.
Prides arc, With the poor gallop, the failure of deep impact and shirocco, hurricane run being blocked a run, who did she beat – irish wells, sixties icon (who was clearly hoping to come from off a strong clip) and best name. Rail link beat her despite conditions not reallly being in his favour. To me she is a 125ish horse and sir percy is potentially a 130 horse when all his skills are applied at the right distance, which has always looked to be 1m2. She was second to david junior in this race last year, but that was hardly a great race and i honestly think that sir percy will emerge as a better 1m2f horse than David Jr or anything else running at 1m2f.
I honestly think that Sir Percy is going to mug off everything in the field this year.
You may well think he Sir Percy is a 130 horse well he will have to make a massive improvement from his Derby run which was rightly rated very low indeed.
Very harsh on Pride. Her Arc run was a tremendous effort considering the way the race was run. She came from near last to first in a race that would have suited the horses that were ridden handy, we all know how hard it is to make up ground off a slow pace. Both she and Hurricane Run will relish the softer ground and by the sounds of things it could end up quite testing now.
You say last years race was weak Pride ran in? David Junior, Oratorio, Rakti, Alkaseed (went on to win the Japan Cup), Chic, Alexander Goldrun, Echo Of Light etc Looked a pretty good renewal to me, certainly not a "weak" renewal.
You seem to be saying, Bulwark, that Pride was somehow flattered by her Arc run but given that she was held up at the back of the field in a steadily-run event I can’t accept that. She was given an over-confident ride but might still have come from last to first had Rail Link not drifted across in front of her a furlong out causing her to check slightly and switch left. It seems to me that she had a remarkably easy race all things considered. Additionally, my reading of the form book says that Sir Percy acts on soft but Pride is positively suited by it and it looks like being pretty soft on Saturday. Sir Percy’s a good horse, of course, and he clearly has a decent chance but I’d certainly favour Pride over him.
If I’d seen Aidan’s post before I typed mine I could have just "associated myself with the remarks of the last speaker."
Everyone’s underestimating SP again.. Hopefully his price will look way too big afterwards.
How exactly has Sir Percy been underestimated….he is favourite for the race….do you want him to be odds on??? Also you state he is underestimated AGAIN…when has he previously be underestimated? To listen to some on here you would think Sir Percy beat GW in the Guineas and won the Derby by 5 lenghts.
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