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Sea Lord
has something close to his ideal conditions off top-weight at Musselburgh today. Can he put stablemate Purple Bay in the shade and stake an each-way Champion Hurdle claim?
I’m starting to lose the faith with him.
Welcome back Zamorston btw. Looking at your 1,2,3 I’d suggest Yorkshire’s championship title has gone to your head….
Haha…cheers….
No, Yorkshire’s success has actually worked the opposite way! I’m approaching betting from a different angle for the first time in about 23 years….
Instead of backing horses on what they ‘might be’ I’m now backing horses what I know what they are, in terms of top level form…for that reason I have to believe at this moment in time both The New One and Jezki will finish in front of Faugheen…
I’ve come close to finishing in profit for the year the last twice, this time I’m aiming for profit (tough ask I know)…
Another Mullins ‘certainty’ to get beat for me…..that said….as a racing fan, and even though it would mean doing my dough…..the sight of Faugheen bounding up the hill 10 lengths clear of the field after the last would be a great sight, and good for the hurdling ranks!!
I have to laugh when I see 5/2 about
Faugheen
….Winning the 2016 Champion hurdle…He wont win the bloody 2015!
Setting yourself up nicely for a big fall there Gord.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
- Total Posts 764
Gord is right, The New One wins this, just re-watch last years Hurdle and it tells you all you need to know, he literally has a rocket up his ass going up that hill to take an incredibly valiant 3rd.
Not this year, he wins. Faugheen may be a better horse over 3m or on a flat Kempton, but up that Cheltenham hill no horse is quicker than The New One.
Gord is right, The New One wins this, just re-watch last years Hurdle and it tells you all you need to know, he literally has a rocket up his ass going up that hill to take an incredibly valiant 3rd.
Not this year, he wins. Faugheen may be a better horse over 3m or on a flat Kempton, but up that Cheltenham hill no horse is quicker than The New One.
I’ve watched the race countless times Ben and the question is always the same.
Where was the rocket when the front four were getting away from him and he was being pushed along with little response?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
- Total Posts 764
Can’t remember the exact undulations of the track Steve but am I right in thinking the track doesn’t start to become uphill until the final straight? If I remember right then like you said he’s being pushed along as they come to and enter the final turn and doesn’t start to make up ground until they’re about 50-100meters into the home straight.
The New One isn’t the fastest hurdle horse out there, but he’s the one whose least affected by the Cheltenham hill, it’s not so much that the gains some new-found speed, moreso that the others slow down a little and he just doesn’t. I probably got a bit carried away with my rocket boosters comment
If Faugheen gets away from TNO like the others did last year entering the home straight then he may have too much work to do, but I don’t see Sam allowing him to be 5 lengths behind the leaders again and if he’s within a couple of lengths then he should win.
I’m in the Faugheen camp all day long on this one. He’ll jump into lead over the last to win as easily as Ruby lets him I reckon. I can see Jezki being the big danger but to probably fill the runner-up spot this time. The New One will be running on late, whether he’ll get to Faugheen’s hind quarters I somewhat doubt. I think Hurricane Fly’s last run showed the racing world that the champ still has it and is getting adaptable, perhaps he does still have a chance after all. But nonetheless Faugheen IS a machine and I don’t think there’s an end to his unbeaten run for a long time to come. I’m of the belief that if The New One was good enough he could have won last year.
I thought THe New One’s bad luck was over exaggerated last year. yes he was hampered but he was well in contention again son afterwards. His real problem was when they quickened he was done for speed before running on again late on. I think soft ground would help his chance this year. If it comes up fastish I think he’ll get outpaced again at a crucial stage of the race, similarly Hurricane Fly.
Willie Mullins is considering running Faugheen in The Red Mills Trial Hurdle at Gowran Park a week Saturday:-
Mullins is thrilled with how his charge is performing on the gallops ahead of his trip to Prestbury Park in a little under five weeks and will discuss with stable jockey Ruby Walsh whether to give him more match practice ahead of the big day.
"We’re looking at the Red Mills. I think there’s one other contest left in England. We’ll just keep all our options open," the champion trainer told At The Races.
"The horse is in good form. We’ll probably have a chat with Ruby in the next day or so to see if he needs more experience, but at the moment I’m very happy with him."
Interesting that they would think he needs more experience and surely ominous for his rivals if the trainer thinks there is further improvement possible with another run under his belt to sharpen him mentally.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
It is quite rare for a Champion hurdler not to have a run after the turn of the year as a prep. It is surely a positive. Tune him.
Really looking forward to this race.
Faugheen now going straight to Cheltenham –
18 of last 19 winners all had a run that calendar year. Champagne Fever and Ballycasey both beaten last year when trying to defy similar absences or inexperience.
The bonus for Faugheen is last year he improved from his December run. He went straight to the festival so if you are on him at least he has history that proves he should cope with the gap.
Faugheen now going straight to Cheltenham –
18 of last 19 winners all had a run that calendar year. Champagne Fever and Ballycasey both beaten last year when trying to defy similar absences or inexperience.
I don’t really see what relevance Champagne Fever and Ballycasey have, particularly the latter who had a run in that calendar year.
It’s not a stat I’d pay any heed to at all, as Sketti says he won last season without a run so no need to change a winning formula.
Faugheen’s form gets a chance to come under closer scrutiny tomorrow when 3rd, 4th and pulled up runners in The Christmas Hurdle clash at Wincanton in the Grade Two Kingwell Hurdle.
Blue Heron fared best of the 3 who ran, when he finished 3rd after cutting out the running. Sign Of A Victory travelled well enough in behind that day but found nothing when he was asked to take closer order. Irving was pulled up that day but was found to have pus in his foot the following day.
Sign Of A Victory was a fancy off top weight for last week’s Betfair Hurdle but was pulled out because of a lameness problem. I was interested in him there at 12/1 but can’t get enthused at a best price of 15/8, when there is a horse in the race who finished 14 lengths in front of him last time.
Blue Heron was a big outsider at 66/1 that day but had finished 4th in The Greatwood the time before and the 5th horse there, Garde La Victoire came out later to give weight and a beating to one time Triumph Hurdle second Fav Bristol De Mai. Blue Heron had earlier beaten Parlour Games, who is a prominent horse in Cheltenham ante-post betting lists. He’s a year older than Sign Of A Victory but is actually rated a pound higher for now and at 4/1 is sort of tempting as value against the two big guns.
Coming to Irving we have the problem that he was pulled up last time. Even before the race the question was asked as to whether he was a good enough jumper to compete at the very top. He fell when battling with Purple Bay on his seasonal debut, leaving the ultimate Christmas Hurdle runner up to come home and earn himself a hike up the ratings. Opinions are divided on who would have won had Irving stayed on his feet. Irving then went on his recovery mission in a Fighting Fifth Hurdle described beforehand as one of the worst in a long while. I thought he was a good thing that day and posted that opinion here. He duly obliged but didn’t convince everybody, although he was raised 8 lbs for that success. The presence of Arctic Fire in third that day will excite some people, because he went on to raise his rating by running in two races where he faced Jezki and Hurricane Fly. Pricewise was sufficiently impressed to pick Arctic Fire for the Champion Hurdle but I’m more sang-froid about his prospects there.
I don’t fancy the three outsiders in tomorrows race and if one of them wins it will throw a big question mark over the Christmas Hurdle form, as there will be no excuses for three horses who ran behind the Champion Hurdle favourite being unable to land the race between them.
In a race where one horse was lame last week, another had a foot problem last time and fallen this season I see little value in Irving at 6/4 and Sign Of A Victory at 15/8. Forced to pick one I’d take Blue Heron at 4/1.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I hope you backed Blue Heron Steve (but with your luck, suspect you did not)
Purple Bay must surely run now? He’d have a place chance.
Am a bit annoyed at O’Grady’s post Red Mills comment that Kitten Rock might not run in the CH. He was touting the horse prior to its last outing and only on that basis (he knows a good horse when he sees one) did I take some 66s.
It’s a shame Blue Heron isn’t in the running as he’d make the perfect rabbit for Faugheen to follow.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
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