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best form for this race is previous Champion Hurdle form so that puts us on Jezki The new One and the Fly but which one !!!
Ruby was always going to choose Faugheen . That much was obvious.
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Ruby was always going to choose Faugheen . That much was obvious.
And not a hint of 4/6!
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>thehorsesmouth wrote:</div>
And not a hint of 4/6!Give it time.
I thought he was meant to go 4/6 as soon as Ruby picked him
I do think he’ll be a bigger price than he is now come Tuesday morning, what happens in the afternoon I don’t know but I’ll go in again Tuesday AM, hoping for 6/4
If it goes 6/4 I will be backing him!!
I have already backed Jezski at 9/1 and The new One at 9/2 why not back all three and watch them run up the straight together ??
As I’ve said before on here I’m not a big stats man as they can easily be manipulated to suit your own argument….after a little look at recent Champion Hurdles I found something interesting though and managed to find something that suits my own fancy for the race.
It’s only looking at the last 10 runnings and Hurricane Fly (2011) doesn’t qualify so that leaves 9….
Out of those 9 winners though 7 of them were beaten at the previous years festival and only Katchit (2008) and Hardy Eustace (2005) had won at the previous years festival…
As a TNO fan his 3rd last year must give him a major chance as 4 of those 7 that were beaten at the previous years festival came 3rd in the Champion Hurdle! Hurricane Fly (2013) Binocular (2010) Punjabi (2009) Brave Inca (2006)….
See….easy to come up with something to make you believe your fancy has a better chance on some random stats!
I’ll be having some 6/4 if it goes there, but lack of a run after xmas – 1/15 winners (ROR) and a general inexperience (only 7 hurdle races) are my worries.
I’ll be having some 6/4 if it goes there, but lack of a run after xmas – 1/15 winners (ROR) and a general inexperience (only 7 hurdle races) are my worries.
If he’s beaten I don’t think it will be for the lack of a run. He came straight from Christmas to Cheltenham last year so they’re happy to follow the same path. If he had ran in the Red Mills at Gowran he would have a dawdle round at 1/10 and wouldn’t miss on this stat but his chance would be no greater.
Fair point, and hate to labour the stats angle, but you can win the Neptune with a break like that, its just not been done that often in the CH. There were other options than Gowran egg and spoon races. Apparently Ruby told Mullins he didn’t need another run because he considers him experienced enough.
Fair point, and hate to labour the stats angle, but you can win the Neptune with a break like that, its just not been done that often in the CH. There were other options than Gowran egg and spoon races. Apparently Ruby told Mullins he didn’t need another run because he considers him experienced enough.
It’s a tougher race this time but it really only boils down to how fit the trainer has the horse after the same length of gap he came to the Festival off of last season.
I read somewhere a quote from Willie Mullins that stated that he had Faugheen “As fit as the hand of God” for the Neptune last year. If there hasn’t been a setback at home, you would see no reason that the horse won’t line up in the same sort of nick this year.
Opinions seem to vary on how impressive Faugheen was in winning last year’s Neptune and how easily he actually achieved it. All I can go on is how he went on to Punchestown and dropped to 2 miles before handing a thrashing out to Valseur Lido, which was when I took serious note of him as a potential Champion Hurdle winner. He’s had two easy wins since then, the first of which wasn’t worthy of much attention but it was the style of his Christmas Hurdle win against decent, though not top, opposition that made him look the one to beat for me.
It’s not just Faugheen’s potential at work though. Jezki comes in without having won this season and The New One has a mixed bag of impressive/workmanlike wins in races where he has been very hot favourite. Will he hit a flat spot as he seemed to last year and how unlucky was he in reality.
Faugheen seems solid tonight in the betting markets. Jezki seems to be holding his own and it’s The New One who seems to be a bit uneasy with 4/1 in several places after having been pretty solid at about 3/1 for several weeks now.
Going is given as good/soft-good in places with dry weather forecast. Perhaps that is going to suit Jezki and Faugheen more than The New One and Hurricane Fly.
It should only be about these four as potential winners. There doesn’t seem to be lot of confidence behind the Pricewise horse Arctic Fire or the other outsiders.
I think Faugheen will win barring a fall and I hope they make sure to make plenty use of the horse.
Good luck to everyone. Hope everything gets round safely and we end up with a clear winner and no hard luck stories.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Is there an argument Steve to say The New One would have beaten Valseur Lido (now a 2 and a half mile+ chaser) just as easily as Faugheen did? Just like The New One would have beaten Purple Bay just as easily?
I’ll be place-laying TNO. I’ve thought for some time the horse has problems, perhaps more physical than mental. Anyway, might as well put my money where my mouth is.
I find this year’s race easy to view:
Last year’s race, although highly anticipated, was a pretty average Champion Hurdle. Average meaning better than some, worse than others. Jezki doesn’t look to have improved and neither has The New One, Hurricane Fly is another year older and while I’d live to see him win it’s going to be tough for him.
Faugheen has beaten everything he has come up against to date with relative ease and in very impressive fashion. I’ve said it for over a year that I think Faugheen is a potential star and everything he’s done suggests he is. I’ll be gutted if he’s beaten, but I’m a realist and know he’s facing the best opposition he has faced. I’m confident he can win by daylight.
If it looks like a duck, waddles like a duck, and quacks like a duck the chances are it’s a duck.
If it looks like a machine, runs like a machine, and wins like a machine the chances are it’s Faugheen.
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Might not be on tomorrow so well done to winners no matter what horse and hopefully we’ll have a race as satisfactory as the pint currently sitting in front of me
Faugheen for me too. It came down to the fact that Faugheen and The New One are quite similar horses in that they both stay further, both won a Neptune and both would probably enjoy a strong pace. Though they are similar models, Faugheen has fewer quirks, fewer vices and fewer convictions.
The New One is just a little awkward isn’t he? He continues to be a sloppy jumper despite having a year more experience and a busier schedule than Faugheen, who has improved his hurdling from last year’s Neptune.
I am very against Jezki too from an ability and attitude standpoint and think the first-time hood was the main factor last year. He has old form on soft ground, so that really shouldn’t be an excuse for spending the year as Hurricane Fly’s whipping boy.
I would have backed Garde La Victoire for second if he was running, but am just keeping it simple with Faugheen to win now.
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