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Regarding Sublimity, look again at last year’s race – he doesn’t jump the last, then after it he doesn’t quicken away, but he’s far enough in front to stay in front. Just don’t ask me to name who will win, probably Sizing Europe – though Osana won’t be far away, and Harchibald will surely make the frame.
Andy
It’s an interesting race because according to the trends two of the market leaders can’t win. Maybe the trend is so strong because the majority of Champion hurdlers need to show they can win or be placed in Championship races before they make the grade.
Whilst Osana and Sizing Europe have shown good form this year, neither has even contested a Championship race never mind won one. (With absolutely no offence intended I don’t consider the AIB Champion Hurdle a Championship race). It certainly makes the Champion Hurdle a ‘must bet’ race for me as taking out two of the top three in the betting guarantees value elsewhere
With all due respect, to suggest that the front two can’t win because they didn’t contest a Championship race last year is complete cobblers and a good example of the Craig Thake approach to trends. They both have good course form and have proven top class form this season. Their position at the top of the market is fully deserved and a strategy that leaves them out is doomed to failure!
If we focus on horses who have won or been placed (first three) in one of the last two years’ festivals in one of those races (to exclude very old form) we get the following shortlist (I’ve included the current Stan James NRNB price in brackets).
Afsoun (3rd 2007 Champion Hurdle) (20/1)
Bobs Pride (3rd 2007 Ballymore Novices Hurdle) (40/1)
Ebaziyan (1st 2007 Supreme Novices Hurdle) (25/1)
Straw Bear (2nd 2006 Supreme Novices Hurdle) (20/1)
Sublimity (1st 2007 Champion Hurdle) (9/2)
Amaretto Rose (3rd 2007 Supreme Novices Hurdle) (25/1)So in effect you are saying that all of these have a better chance than Sizing Europe and Osana because of the "trends"?
Regarding Sublimity, look again at last year’s race – he doesn’t jump the last, then after it he doesn’t quicken away, but he’s far enough in front to stay in front. Just don’t ask me to name who will win, probably Sizing Europe – though Osana won’t be far away, and Harchibald will surely make the frame.
At last someone bar myself who actually watched the race:lol: I have been saying that since the day I joined this forum and before.
I can find no evidence anywhere on the planet that makes my think Sublimity has a cat in hells chance of winning the Champion Hurdle.
The horses he beat when 1/3 in his race before Cheltenham were travelling as fast as Hardy Eustace and Brave Inca were goingt to the last. The only decent race he ever ran in was behind Noland and depite his youth he failed to a pass aingle horse on his way up the hill…he was very one paced…first bit of presssure and he is gone IMO and he’ll get plenty of that in this years running…..be unfair of me to say he was a bad horse but Dual Champion Hurdle winner? I sincerely doubt it.
With all due respect, to suggest that the front two can’t win because they didn’t contest a Championship race last year is complete cobblers and a good example of the Craig Thake approach to trends. They both have good course form and have proven top class form this season. Their position at the top of the market is fully deserved and a strategy that leaves them out is doomed to failure!
Anyone whose approach fails to concentrate on the horses with previous Festival form is doomed to failure (IMHO of course)
So in effect you are saying that all of these have a better chance than Sizing Europe and Osana because of the "trends"?
No. What I am saying is that history tells us you need win or placed form at a previous festival to win the Champion Hurdle. Those two simply don’t have it. End of story. Therefore you need to look elsewhere for the winner and I’ve identified those entered that satisfy this crucial criterion
I can find no evidence anywhere on the planet that makes my think Sublimity has a cat in hells chance of winning the Champion Hurdle.
Other than the fact he won the Champion Hurdle by 3 lengths last year. The comments in running for his win read "held up last, smooth progress before 3 out, stalked leading pair soon after, produced to lead last, driven and soon well in command"
As for his run behind Noland, he was certainly unlucky that day as he was hampered by a loose horse at a crucial moment.
I can find no evidence anywhere on the planet that makes my think Sublimity has a cat in hells chance of winning the Champion Hurdle.
Other than the fact he won the Champion Hurdle by 3 lengths last year. The comments in running for his win read "held up last, smooth progress before 3 out, stalked leading pair soon after, produced to lead last, driven and soon well in command"
As for his run behind Noland, he was certainly unlucky that day as he was hampered by a loose horse at a crucial moment.
The comments in running are true, however, if you actually watch the race as I have numerous times recently, he does nothing after the last. Rounding the home turn and cruising in behind the leaders you think he’ll win like Rooster Booster. Not saying he can’t win, but I wouldn’t back him, and one run since his win. Mmmm, that’s another one of my gripes about Cheltenham- horses just geared for one race a season.
No. What I am saying is that history tells us you need win or placed form at a previous festival to win the Champion Hurdle. Those two simply don’t have it. End of story
Well if its "end of story" then the answer is yes then isnt it?
A good run at Cheltenham is an obvious positive because of the nature of the course and also the experience of hard run bustling fields. But presumably you would also have dismissed Best Mates chances for his second GC because of the very well known trend that preceeded that ?
let alone his third…
Unless a "trend" or stat has strong logic behind it, then im not interested. Standard deviation can account for a lot.
Unless a "trend" or stat has strong logic behind it, then im not interested. Standard deviation can account for a lot.
So you wouldn’t consider the ability to show top class form in Championship races as logical?
Try reading what i said
Regardless of that, it is "illogical" to completely dismiss horses chances simply because they do not have festival form. Thats horribly simplistic
Your posts so far indicate that is precisely what you do
So in effect you are saying that all of these have a better chance than Sizing Europe and Osana because of the "trends"?
No. What I am saying is that history tells us you need win or placed form at a previous festival to win the Champion Hurdle. Those two simply don’t have it. End of story. Therefore you need to look elsewhere for the winner and I’ve identified those entered that satisfy this crucial criterion
Like Alderbrook or Royal Gait?
To be honest its a silly stat.
I can find no evidence anywhere on the planet that makes my think Sublimity has a cat in hells chance of winning the Champion Hurdle.
Other than the fact he won the Champion Hurdle by 3 lengths last year. The comments in running for his win read "held up last, smooth progress before 3 out, stalked leading pair soon after, produced to lead last, driven and soon well in command"
As for his run behind Noland, he was certainly unlucky that day as he was hampered by a loose horse at a crucial moment.
If you think that was a good champion hurdle last year there is no hope for you. I am repeating myself here but watch Hardy Eustace last year go look Hardy Eustace previous years………look when he first comes under pressure…….NOTHING ran any sort of race last year except Sublimity who was handed the race on the plate…….he went past ok but as soon as he hit the rising ground……..ZAP!!!! he had gone completely and just plodded up the hill to the line. A good horse would have won that by 6 or 8 lengths. He is either nothing special or he simply does not stay the trip. If it’s the latter then he’s in big trouble this year because he will need every bit of his speed just to get to Katchit and/or Sublimity……they will be strating to run where HE and B Inca were stopping last year.
Exactly when did Sublimity get hampered by a loose horse behin Noland?
He had a clear run turning for home came on the outside and never went anywhere near the lose horse. He did show a fair bit of toe to get to Straw Bears quarters, he even looked like the most likely winner going to the last, but the minute he hit the rising ground he stopped like he was shot.
Evaluatuing form of years ago is difficult but he was behind Straw Bear then. Taking it he has improved a bit, but forgetting that debacle of a race last year his form behind Noland and Straw Bear wouldn’t see him beat Afsoun this year let alone the rest of the leading horses.
He may come there with a challenge at some point but I think he’s going to be pushed to do it against this crop of hurdlers…….he wont be hacking coming to the last like he was last year and the minute the pressure is on I think he’ll fold……….I think he”ll burn himslef out between the last two and have nothing to offer after the last…..wouldn’t have him in my 3.
could Sublimity have possibly not been 100% fit last year; I think he had a problem at the start of the season and had only had one race prior to the Champion Hurdle…I do find that when unexpected horses win races and people don’t back them they seem to nit pick the quality of the race [only a supposition]….and agree with Tuffers about previous form at Cheltenham – I know very little about betting but followed the race trends last year and had a very good Cheltenham…
So in effect you are saying that all of these have a better chance than Sizing Europe and Osana because of the "trends"?
No. What I am saying is that history tells us you need win or placed form at a previous festival to win the Champion Hurdle. Those two simply don’t have it. End of story. Therefore you need to look elsewhere for the winner and I’ve identified those entered that satisfy this crucial criterion
Like Alderbrook or Royal Gait?
To be honest its a silly stat.
I would acknowledge that the exception to the general rule is horses that are Group class on the flat – Sizing Europe and Osana are not
Try reading what i said
Regardless of that, it is "illogical" to completely dismiss horses chances simply because they do not have festival form. Thats horribly simplistic
Your posts so far indicate that is precisely what you do
What we are trying to do as punters is employ a strategy that produces consistent profits. All of us emply a variety of strategies with a greater or lesser degree of success.
For the Cheltenham festival I only bet in the Championship races and the handicap chases. Even then I only bet if I think I have an edge. Generally the problem with the Championship races is that they have been analysed to death so there tends to be very little value unless you can employ an approach that restores your edge. I happen to believe that the single most important factor in Championship races is previous Festival form. The stats would suggest that only looking at those runners with win or place form in Championship races would result in the winner being on your shortlist in the vast majority of years. I believe that this restores my edge in this year’s renewal of the Champion Hurdle because it enables me to oppose to of the top three in the betting.
This may be a simplistic approach but I’m a great believer in the KISS (Keep It Simple, Stupid) approach. Whilst I am fascinated by the lengths some on here go to producing their own ratings I believe I can achieve a winning formula by keeping it simple.
The other factor which I think is crucial is the state of the going which is why I am so interested in the Turftrax Going Stick. Despite the criticism it receives from some quarters on here I am again convinced betting on the basis of the Going Stick rather than the official going gives me an edge over other punters Last year, following a conversation with the guy at Turftrax on the morning of the first day of the Festival, I was convinced that the going was good all the way round. This again gave me an edge over other punters and I was able to bet a good ground specialist in Joes Edge at very fancy prices as a result.
I don’t believe you should slavishly follow stats that have been back fitted to the historic data but I will continue restricting my betting in Championship races to those who have already shown they can handle the unique test these races produce.
So in effect you are saying that all of these have a better chance than Sizing Europe and Osana because of the "trends"?
No. What I am saying is that history tells us you need win or placed form at a previous festival to win the Champion Hurdle. Those two simply don’t have it. End of story. Therefore you need to look elsewhere for the winner and I’ve identified those entered that satisfy this crucial criterion
Like Alderbrook or Royal Gait?
To be honest its a silly stat.
I would acknowledge that the exception to the general rule is horses that are Group class on the flat – Sizing Europe and Osana are not
They’re all different types of horses. Royal Gait was an out and out stayer, Alderbrook wasn’t.
Its not really a fair comparrison as the flat and hurdles are different codes.
I think its a case of trying to fit the stats to an opinion when as with most stats they can be manipulated in any way if you try hard enough.
The horses don’t know the trends. Osana and Sizing Europe have both won big, graded hurdles races against the best of the opposition, that is enough of a recommendation.
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