- This topic has 220 replies, 46 voices, and was last updated 3 years, 7 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Goshen won well but can a 5yo really give 7 lbs to two top class mares? I doubt it.
“Hes no chance”
I’m far from his biggest fan but surely thats simply not true
We have no idea how good he actually is
He probably isn’t a monster but today has shown he just might be the horse people thought he was after the triumph where he was going to absolutely batter double grade 1 winning novice chaser allmankind and 160 rated grade 2 winning aspire tower
Only bet iv had in this race is Saint Roi who unless he’s a spring horse now has absolutely no chance
Looks a complete no bet race now at these prices
Sit back and watch honeysuckle, epatante and goshen go at it now that iv missed the good betting opportunities on honeysuckle and goshen
Both this and the arkle will hopefully mean we have a belter of a day 1
Not for me ff,Has no chance whatsoever, im still laying as if now if anyone wants the 6s lol,
You spoke about races falling apart FF with me in regards to the bumper, if there was ever an example of a race falling apart, it was this, it imploded entirely and youd be aswell pretending SFS wasnt in the race, because he wasnt and him finishing 2nd shows how bad that race actually was, he wasnt travelling from 4 strides in.
HDLG 25s fair enough not knocking anyone for backing him just saying IMO not on this earth does he have a chance of winning this.
Ill ge interested to see what rating he gets given, the top end british animals are shockingly poor atm
“HDLG 25s fair enough not knocking anyone for backing him just saying IMO not on this earth does he have a chance of winning this.”
I mean id say you couldn’t knock backers any more than saying their pick has absolutely no chance ham hahaha
It certainly didn’t fall apart in the same way as the kilcruit race ham
Goshen was ridden prominently and helped set a gallop that the inferior horses couldn’t handle and all got burnt off (just like all of his wins)
Whereas kilcruit took advantage of the horses who set the pace not finishing off their races
I make honeysuckle the likeliest winner but there’s just something about goshen that intrigues me, that small chance that he’s a faugheen esque type of monster
I look forward to finding out
Id imagine he’ll either win by 15 lengths or finish last
Adds another interesting dimension to the race
Excellent training performance from Gary Moore with Goshen!
I’ve been camp Epatante for a long time but honestly think Goshen is the one to beat now and come the day when he struts round the paddock and the confidence grows from team Moore he’ll end up going off favourite.
Couldn’t help but dig back to the episode of Luck On Sunday from December when Moore was on talking about Goshen after his disappointment and the heart issue. Listening again to that you could tell the faith was still there and rightly so…there was the obvious heart issue but he also said he went there short of work…hurdles being taken out went against him and he also said they tried different tactics that now with the benefit of hindsight was a huge mistake.
If there’s one horse in this race with the potential wow factor it’s certainly Goshen! I love honeysuckle and her attitude is fantastic but I’ve always had a feeling she’s better over further and would be vulnerable to a class one over a true run two miles. Isn’t that why she skipped this last year and connections were 50/50 again this time round until her last win?
Let’s not forget…as good as her last performance was…her last run over two miles in the same race last year she was all out to beat Darver star and Petite Mouchoir…on a line through those she has a fair bit to find with Epatante and on the evidence of just that one performance last time out I don’t trust the form enough to think all of a sudden she’s a world beater at two miles.
With Goshen on the other hand in two of his last three starts he’s put in two extremely impressive performances and the other we can easily put a line through with the known issues to come from that race.
He would have hacked up in the triumph by a good 15-20 lengths and the placed horses have shown the form to be worthwhile with Aspire Tower now rated 160 and 4th/5th favourite with some for this…Allmankind has won at grade 1 and 2 level over fences with ease on his last two starts, though I’m still unconvinced he’s at his best at Cheltenham and even Navajo Pass who finished 4th in the Triumph and was beaten out of sight yesterday took two decent scalps in a career best effort at Haydock last time out…
Song for Someone may have been a little under par but the same can easily be said of most of the field in the Irish champion hurdle…
Goshen the most likely winner for me..
Racing manager Peter Maloney said they sat down last year and agreed that at that stage her jumping wasn’t slick enough to drop back, and it made since to get Kenny Alexander his first winner at Cheltenham. He also said that if the Irish Champion went to plan this time around, they were always aiming to go to the CH this year. Obviously you can never be certain a horse will win and you’d imagine Goshen wasn’t more than 50/50 before Saturday given his torrid year so far.
Honeysuckle and Epatante certainly have a wow factor, i can’t agree with that statement at all. I do think i know what your saying in that Goshen is very likely to win impressively when he does given his race style but Epatante is more of a push button horse, and to my eye she’s every bit as “wow” when on form.
In looking at Goshen’s wins even including the fall, i would very much say he has yet to prove himself as a top G1 horse. Yes he’s only in his first year in open company, so that’s harsh enough, but he’s a price where you have to be harsh. As you point out Aspire Tower wasn’t at his best. Burning Victory hasn’t ran since, and to be honest, while she’s clearly got plenty of ability, she had won 1 race beforehand and can’t jump. Navajo Pass has been superbly placed by McCain and clearly is improving (like Juveniles can do). Buveur D’air was clearly miles away from his true ability and Ballyandy too.
There’s no doubt he was winning it impressively so that’s another story, but again, he was beating g1 juveniles, not top horses at that time.
Saturday was great to see as it gives the Moores hope that they can get put right the disastrous fall last March and as a family i’d love for it to happen even though i don’t see it. As you say he beat a below par SFS and even Navajo Pass, but are they even all that good? He was getting 6lbs as well. Friend or Foe went off 11/2 in the race he’s rated 146 and won 2 handicaps.We know with Honeysuckle she is a proper G1 mare, the same as Epatante. I would agree the Irish Champion had pretty every horse in it bar Honey run below themselves, but we had Supreme 2nds, Champion Hurdle 2nds in there. It was more her own performance that confirms things, she jumped much slicker (like in the Mares Hurdle) than last year.
Would i discount Goshen, not at all, would i say he’ll be favourite? Not for me, and his form is still weak. When we have g/s and a proper championship pace, where all the horses can cope (couldn’t Saturday) we will see if Goshen can fight them off.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Really nice performance from Goshen, I had hoped he would become a top class Grade 1 Hurdler after his juvenile campaign and was very underwhelmed by his next couple of performances on the flat and back over hurdles.
I’d backed him AP and was resigned to the fact my slips were dead. Although I could have got three times a better price before the Kingwell I was delighted to see him win and more importantly race with enthusiasm like he did.
I agree that some of the other horses may have under performed but he looked very impressive and although I need to watch it back again Jamie Moore looked to have a tight hold of him but was happy for him to race with a lot of enthusiasm which I dont think he’s done past couple of races.
He’s a huge player here now and as Zamorston says the Triumph form has plenty if substance. Will need to try see how the race could play out tactically but plenty of horses here with a shout of winning it!
Jack…you mention Honeysuckle beating supreme 2nds, champion hurdle 2nds but the point is did they run their race?
Navajo pass beat a two time champion hurdle winner and a Cheltenham bumper winner and very solid yardstick but they didn’t run their races…
It’s all about perception…Goshen thrashes a horse rated 158 and it’s because he didn’t run his race…Honeysuckle thrashes a horse rated exactly the same and she’s the best thing since sliced bread?
As I say, I love Honeysuckle…her record is perfect and her attitude is absolutely top class! The fact is though in 10 starts under rules she’s only ran over two miles three times…she looked impressive last time but in previous efforts has jumped slow and looked like she could be vulnerable at the trip to a good one…it was only 12 months ago she was all out to beat Darver Star who was rated 146 at the time and Petit Mouchoir who has consistently been found out at the top level…even this season she was all out to hold on from Ronald Pump who’s a mid 150’s at best and would need to set off straight after the Arkle finished to be involved in the champion hurdle finish!
And what I meant by the wow comment is out of all the field Goshen is the only one I could see putting in a performance that would leave that reaction…Epatante may win but don’t think it would be anything like Goshen would have been in last seasons triumph…Honeysuckle will finish 3rd at best for me…as game as they come but Goshen and Epatante will leave her going up and down on the spot…
Jack…you mention Honeysuckle beating supreme 2nds, champion hurdle 2nds but the point is did they run their race?
I said in the same sentence that every horse in the ICH bar Honeysuckle ran below themselves!
It’s all about perception…Goshen thrashes a horse rated 158 and it’s because he didn’t run his race…Honeysuckle thrashes a horse rated exactly the same and she’s the best thing since sliced bread?
No it’s not? As i said she beat horses that were below themselves. RPRs have Aba as running to 160 when losing to her 10ls. For me that is wrong + even with the mares allowance he didn’t run to that level.
The simple fact of the matter is, she has beaten top top horses, open G1 horses. Goshen hasn’t yet. She beat Benie by showing her superior pace, and Roksana is 11.75ls back. I do believe the ride was also superior on Honey that day but she’ll have the same pilot touch wood this year.even this season she was all out to hold on from Ronald Pump who’s a mid 150’s at best and would need to set off straight after the Arkle finished to be involved in the champion hurdle finish!
To be fair to her, that was her debut for the season. He had a first run under his belt, and ran a very decent race, showing his desire to get back to 3miles. Pity he’s out of the stayers. He’s a very decent horse, a Stayers 2nd. Beacon Edge in 3rd, beating Fury Road yesterday.
Fair enough on the wow factor point, i still stand by the fact, that Epatante looming up on the bridle and speeding past and winning by 5 or 6l is as exhilarating to watch. Goshen will need to be very very good to beat the two of them, probably 170+. So far, in my eyes he’s 10lbs off that. If he has plenty left under the bonnet then that might be achievable, personally i think his form is of G2 standard right now, but he’s priced as if he’s a multiple grade 1 winner- he isn’t. At best he’d be the winner of a juvenile G1 so far if you forgive him his fall.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I can’t refer to any Triumph Hurdles off hand, which were as strong as the one Goshen was about to hack-up in. Anyone not giving him a chance is crackers.
BUY THE SUN
A lot of strong opinions here in what looks, to me at least, to be a very competitive renewal. Right now i’d be siding towards Epatante defending her crown but Goshen is a serious rival as is Honeysuckle and, if we get some decent ground, Abacadabras. I just can’t warm to Sharjah as he seems so unpredictable.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.