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El Fabiolo should win but Evens. Paired with Constitution Hill, who also should win, 2-1 so went with that.
The only horse that I can see with the potential improvement to make him an ew candidate is Boothill, so I’ve initially taken 33-1 ew
Boothill just won off top weight at Ascot and may have been fortunate but he needs trying in a Graded race.
The things I want most in life are the things that I can't win.
He was too keen yesterday (Boothill) but still a decent effort he’ll be close to 160 now which could be enough to place. I think its a bad market to bet in antepost because assuming the front two get to Cheltenham, what’s the shortest a horse like Boothill could be on the day? 16s maybe? Might get to single figures if he wins a G2 well but more likely is they run him against Jonbon in a G1 and he gets beat fairly easily prior to Cheltenham he could be a 33’s shot on the day. Will there be 8 on the day? Might be your saving grace on the place part but hard to see where the likes of Edwardstone, Editeur, Captain Guiness etc go if not here so I think there could be 8
I’ve a couple of tickets for 33s on Boothill , I think he has a e.w squeak , he’s an improving horse and real he can beat the likes of Editor and Guiness , I’ll be honest I’m not convinced by Edwardstone now either , I reckon you’ve seen the best of him
I think it’s time for my annual Gentleman de Mee bet in this. I’ve managed to restrain myself till NRNB kicks in, to account for his sicknote tendencies. Do you think b365 will take a stern view of my taking the 33s ew NRNB…which is the same as their normal antepost rules price? He’s 25s NRNB elsewhere so it’s not wildly out of line. Maybe they just think he’s not very good and has as much chance of placing whether he runs or not
Ferny Hollow currently in the 20s for this reappears in the Newlands Chase today.
The things I want most in life are the things that I can't win.
Halved in price for beating an 11yo handicapper getting weight. LOL I love antepost these days, well and truly dead.
Yes, not really a surprise that he won’t be going to Cheltenham. Ash Tree Meadow jumped some of them as if he had never seen a fence before.
Given the competition here, I think that there are worse nrnb options than Maskada. I’ve taken 100/1 ew non runner no bet
“To be the best chaser in the country you have to be a phenomenal jumper and I don’t think El Fabiolo is a phenomenal jumper,” De Boinville said on the Racing Post’s Cheltenham Festival preview show.
El Fabiolo might not be the slickest chaser around but he’s never looked like falling and has never made the kind of mistake Jonbon did 4 out at Cheltenham (in a race where it was noticeable that he also lost ground at several other fences) so to come out with that line is utter nonsense from Nico.
Moscow Flyer (like El Fabiolo) had his own way of jumping and wouldn’t have been described as a ‘phenomenal jumper’ (as shown by the 2004 QMCC when he completely walked through the open ditch at the top of the hill to get rid of Geraghty) but he was without a doubt the best 2m chaser around in his day.
Only 1 bet for the festival for me, one I placed around this time last year – Edwardstone ew 20/1. Will be more than happy with a place as I’d forgotten I’d even put the bet on until checking my accounts the other day!
Similar here Ben. After watching him win at Newbury, I could not remember if I had backed him for this race. I looked through my account and found I had back in October (not as good a price as you got, though).
I think El Fabiolo will probably win but Edwardstone is a sporting each way bet.
I agree CAS, haven’t watched any jumps racing this year but after a quick look through this years results I can’t see past El Fabiolo eiter, he certainly looked a proper horse in the Arkle!
Wish I had 20/1. Just took Edwardstone at an average of 8.33/1 to win, Ben.
Shouldn’t really be good enough to beat the two favourites, but both Jonbon and to a certain degree El Fabiolo’s vulnerabilities are in their jumping. Wanted to keep out until the day, but if Jonbon catches the Hendo lurgy he’ll be a lot shorter. Might have a place only saver on the day, but imo he is better value to win than each way. Because he’ll be trying to match EF and J from a relatively early stage, whereas others will be sitting back and trying to pick up the pieces if the front three over exert themselves… And Edwardstone being the front runner is most likely of the three to do that.
Value Is EverythingIs Edwardstone a front runner now? I remembered him being held up in most of his races but having just looked at the RP form I see he front-ran for his recent victory, have connections committed to the change in tactics for the horse then?
King has said Edwardstone does not need to front run, Ben… But he would wouldn’t he. I suppose on ratings it was a similarly rated performance to the 2 3/4 lengths second to Jonbon in the Tingle Creek, when taking a keen hold held up (well… held up in third of four runners). However, he won the Game Spirit with a lot more enthusiasm, jumping fast and fluently. With the potential to do more ridden that way. They’d be crazy to do anything else imo.
Value Is Everything
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