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DIfference in price is because of the exchange price being a win price compared to the books prices being e/w ones. It’s potentially a ‘bad e/w’ race so bookies are wary to push out e/w prices
Also the bookies going non runner no bet takes the price down
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Not by that much, Nathan. I’d expect the normal difference in prices. Point is the difference in prices are more than I’d reasonably expect.
Value Is EverythingDIfference in price is because of the exchange price being a win price compared to the books prices being e/w ones. It’s potentially a ‘bad e/w’ race so bookies are wary to push out e/w prices.
Why should Politologue’s betfair win price have a larger difference than other e/w horses, Kev?
Value Is EverythingBecause he’s a very likely e/w play to get in the 3 and is a confirmed runner compared to many in here like Fox Norton & Douvan.
Paul Nicholls’ Stable is as straight as it comes and has never from what I can recall been one to show up on Betfair pre-news.
It’s only being layed for minimal though ginge.
Someone doesn’t fancy the horse after having things in his favour and getting beat with the minimal of fuss by Altior 1st time back after his op. If it was getting layed for hundreds might be different. Like Kev has said Nicholl’s is as straight as they come and would have said if anything was wrong with the horseGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Because he’s a very likely e/w play to get in the 3 and is a confirmed runner compared to many in here like Fox Norton & Douvan.
Would’ve thought it goes without saying that you would not compare one that’s a doubtful starter, Kev.
Politologue was as low as 4/1 (now 6/1) in places and as high as 10/1 in one place with bookies (all NRNB) and yet on betfair was 20/1.
ew horse Special Tiara 14/1 and 16/1 with bookies, 18/1 with betfair.
I expect some difference, might even expect more of a difference than Special Tiara has.
However, even shortening to 16/1, the difference in Politologue’s odds are still worrying, treble that of some bookmakers and almost double the best bookmakers price… and that 10/1 is a stand out! All put together suggests he’s had a setback to me.Value Is EverythingBeen on Altior since March, Nathan… and recently had savers on both Min and Special Tiara. So suppose you could say I’ve already laid Politologue.
What am saying is:
Bookmakers prices vary from 6/1 to 10/1. Those bookies that have him @ 6/1 presumably believe he has around a 12.5 to 13% chance of winning (unless they’ve got big ante-post liabilities and just don’t want to lay him). Those @ 10/1 presumably believe he has around an 7.5 to 8% chance of winning (unless they haven’t got much money in the book). So bookies odds compilers believe Politologue has between a 7.5 to 13% chance if turning up (NRNB). That’s a very big difference of opinion as it is. However, when betfair is 22/1, they would not be laying that price unless believing his chance is at most 3.5% (all in run or not). Presumably less than 3.5 if they’ve allowed for a fair margin for error.When the difference is so large in my opinion it’s probable some bookies and exchange punters have heard something negative. Either a setback or strong rumours of a setback. However, if you’re not in on what’s happened it is impossible to judge whether 23/1 (the price you’d need to lay the horse) is value or not.
May be he’s had the setback and there’s still a good chance he’ll recover and get to Cheltenham in A1 condition. In which case 22/1 would be a good price to actually back the horse to win. On the other hand might be a probable non-runner or unlikely to be in A1 condition, in which case 23/1 would be a good lay bet.Personally, when this type of thing happens I’d rather back another horse in the race rather than lay the one on the drift. imo If able to get 7/2 Min each way or 16/1 Special Tiara each way might be the bets to consider at this point (as long as the bookmaker’s NRNB rules don’t have rule 4’s). Just trying to warn TRFers Politologue’s likely to have had a setback of one sort or other and punters should beware of backing him at this stage.
Value Is Everything“Douvans chances of making the champion chase are now considerably better than 50/50”
You’ll be hoping Douvan doesn’t turn up so..
Hope Douvan turns up, be a great race Vautour; although my wallet might disagree.
Kicking King, Binocular… Douvan? Horses ruled out before coming back to win the biggest races at Cheltenham. Those Irish fields have some exceptional minerals – performing miracles.
Value Is EverythingI hope he does turn up but He’s not jumped a twig yet Mullins confirmed when asked. Of course, The RP have sensationalised what WPM said already blowing the whole thing out of proportion.
On ATR Website, no sign of a setback according to this
Paul Nicholls believes a fast pace will play to the strengths of Politologue in the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase.
trainer is cautiously optimistic the seven-year-old grey will run honourably at the Cheltenham Festival.
He said: “One thing about the Champion Chase is that they will go flat out and that will suit him much better. Hopefully that will help us close the gap. He has got that level and is a decent horse and continues to give a good account of himself. Since we have gone back to two miles, he has been really progressive.”
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So then there were 10.
Soon to be 9 as Un De Sceaux will almost certainly run in the Ryan Air (maybe even more so now that Waiting Patiently has dropped out).
Will Douvan run?
May be he’s had the setback and there’s still a good chance he’ll recover and get to Cheltenham in A1 condition. In which case 22/1 would be a good price to actually back the horse to win. On the other hand might be a probable non-runner or unlikely to be in A1 condition, in which case 23/1 would be a good lay bet.
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