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Bit of a market over reaction to Teeshan over the last couple of days?
He won his point by 41 lengths, leading and galloping on strongly. That form is relatively untested, but the second did scramble home today. Today he tracked the pace, and picked up nicely to beat something of a rag-bag collection at Exeter. His first race was on soft, and the second on heavy. He is by Westerner, and the dam, who hadn’t previously produced a winner, was a soft ground stayer. Nicholls has no great record in the Festival Bumper although he did produce a big-priced placed horse last year. This one won’t be a big price.
My guess is that today’s form is at least a stone below Let It Rain, and that’s before the allowance. Then you would have consider how Teeshan would cope with quicker ground. I am looking from a distance, but in addition to being a form standout, as a model I would also much prefer Let It Rain. Let It Rain is 20/1, and this horse is 6/1.
Good performances today on either side of the Irish side from Teeshan (Exeter) and Cantico (Navan). Both plenty short enough with the bookies overreacting, as usual.
This looks wide open and it would probably be foolish to bet anything at this stage. However, I’ve had a spare 10a on Argento Boy at 25-1. Won well on debut, as you’d expect, and he’s a half brother to 2013 winner Briar Hill. Owned by the Turley’s and races in the up and coming Galopin Des Champs colours. He might lack the tactical speed for something like this but he’ll be a nice long term prospect either way.
Are the British just desperate for a decent bumper horse , could see this as part of the reason , let’s face it the British have been nowhere in this in recent years
Stupidly decided to hang fire on LET IT RAIN but have gone in now at 12’s. Price shortened probably due to being tipped up on the Paddy podcast. Apparently Skelton has said all systems go for her. Still, a good price for what I think will go off 6/1 at worst. 14/1 for Ante Post, 12 safer option NRMB
Sadly, Skelton now saying Let It Rain has an issue, and likely to miss the Festival. It wouldn’t take much to dissuade Skelton from running so I would guess next to no chance. You couldn’t make it up, in the race for all of five minutes. Hopefully, at least those who backed it recently will probably be on NRNB.
I hadn’t taken much notice of the Champion Bumper, but as it was on Neil’s Cheltenham
competition. As some of you will know, I’m rarely a favourite backer but having watched
ALL the races I don’t think there is anything that looks of the same quality of Willie
Mullins Maughreen. She’s got a classy pedigree, by Walk In The Park who in turn was by
Montjeu. I wished I’d checked this race out a while back, but even at 11/2 I think she’s
terrific valuee.If I were to have an e/w, and I have, I think Aorora Vega has a decent chance at 50/1
or 33/1 NRNB. Not just because she is out of Quevaga but she won her 1st 3 races before
a disappointing 4th at Leopardstown. However she got herself caught on the rail in the
last furlong and there was no way out.Maughreen 11/2 Betfair win NRNB
Arora Vega 50/1 E/W Unibet
I thought when William Munny edged out C’est Ta Chance at Navan last month that they were potentially two very smart horses. William Munny backed up that impression yesterday when readily winning what looked a good bumper at Naas. If he was going to Cheltenham he’d surely be in the first few in the market but it appears he won’t be travelling. As such I had a small interest in C’est Ta Chance at 20/1 NRNB in the aftermath of yesterday’s race.
I did a stupid. Watched some Twitter on the loo, saw William Munny canter and quicken, trainer quoted saying “best bumper horse around this season” or sumthin, put on a toilet tenner, watched full interview, not going Chelters, aiming for Punchestown.
25/1 if he does change his mind.To be honest I’m going in hard on MAUGHREEN AT 11/2. I think it’s written in the stars after the death of Maureen Mullins a short time ago. Patrick will be on board and will become the winning most jockey of this race (currently tied with Ruby on 3)
I can see her being 3-1 or less on the day so I’m taking it now and this will likely be my biggest bet of the festival.Chivers, I almost did the same thing with William Munny, but I watched race and interview first and decided not to have a go. Though you can never tell what goes through Barry Connell’s mind. The 25s are a nice price in case he should change his mind.
I also agree that the Mullins family would do anything to win the race in memory of Maureen.
She will be favorite on the day, that’s for sure.Reading today’s mullins stable tour I got the impression Patrick will be on you oughta know
If so he will go off fav
Willie picked out you oughta now and jasmine de vaux as his top two
Maughreen actually named after the owners next door neighbor from some time ago but the correlation between the two would still make it a decent story.
Willie hasn’t had that much to say on the bumper team, he says Jasmine and YOK are top two but has recently said Maughreen could be anything and will improve all the way to the festival.That said, I’ve cooled a little from my initial burst of excitement and looking at Jasmin again, he clearly is in the could be anything category too. It would be typical for the connections of Jeroboam Machin if YOK wins this after beaten fair enough and square enough at the DRF.
I’ll put a piece of pie on Jasmin and also I like the look of Ben Pauling’s SIXMILEBRIDGE at 25/1. So, 3 in total.No more bets your honor.
Added another. ARGENTO BOY 20/1. One of the slightly overlooked Mullins contenders, he won on debut and although difficult to gauge what he beat that day,he did it very nicely. He’s a brother to 2013 Champion Bumper winner BRIAR HILL who also won this race off the back of one run albeit he did have some PTP experience.
Still might put a little bit of cover on YOU OUGHTA KNOW and BRECHIN CASTLE as both were 2nd last time behind fancied runners for this race that have now been ruled out (Jeroboam Machin + Let It Rain) but they’ll just be pocket change.
Total bets ante-post:
JASMIN DE VAUX 6/1
SIXMILEBRIDGE 28/1
ARGENTO BOY 20/1
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