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Tony Martin has a few contenders for the end of season marathon but I am drawn to a horse of his who seems on the up and unexposed on the flat.
Heartbreak City made his debut on the flat on the all-weather over what now looks a ludicrously short distance for him. He went hurdling but was pretty woeful there, although his last couple of starts were not quite as bad. Switched back to the flat he was a decent third before then finding his best ever effort in a 2 mile handicap at York, which was a £31,000 race.
Hearbreak City went up 9lbs for his York win and is now rated 90, so he will sail into the Cesarewitch off that mark based on last years race ratings.
With other possibles from the stable it’s a bit of a guessing game but the extra couple of furlongs look sure to suit and he’s an unexposed horse who could still be dangerous off his new rating with progress very much a possibility with only 3 flat starts to his name.
For me, he’s the interesting contender at 16/1 and I’ll stick win only on him to keep costs down.
Cesarewitch Heartbreak City 16/1 win only
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
A tad to early for me to make predictions but Shades Of Silver looks like one I’ll certainly be on.
This horse has won five of his last eight races and is proven at 2 miles and I think the extra 2 furlongs won’t inconvenience him because it seems the further he goes, the better he is. He’s not the most graceful of movers but he has a good, long stride that eats into softish ground. With the going likely to be softer in October, this will play to his advantage.
He’s around 25/1 at the moment.
Here he is winning at Nottingham on Gd/Sft…
Jane Chapple Hyam says that The Twisler is being aimed at this if it is any help but it might not get in off 85
A tad to early for me to make predictions but Shades Of Silver looks like one I’ll certainly be on.
This horse has won five of his last eight races and is proven at 2 miles and I think the extra 2 furlongs won’t inconvenience him because it seems the further he goes, the better he is. He’s not the most graceful of movers but he has a good, long stride that eats into softish ground. With the going likely to be softer in October, this will play to his advantage.
He’s around 25/1 at the moment.
Here he is winning at Nottingham on Gd/Sft…
I had a look at him Rob, he’s got a good strike rate and could have more to come.
The slight worry is how well handicapped he’ll be on the day. He won his first race off 55 and is due out tomorrow running from a mark of 88 at Goodwood.
I’ll see how he goes tomorrow but that mark is the nag for me.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Oddly, Max Dynamite was backed in for this race before disappearing from the betting altogether. The plan was always to head for the Melbourne Cup and, as I had said, that always made the Mullins horse an unlikely runner here.
Low Key took himself right to the head of the betting with a nice win at Newmarket on Saturday for David Pipe. The eight year old dual purpose horse has a good strike rate on the flat and I think he is well worth a saver at 14/1 with Sporting Bet.
Thomas Edison is the other one at the head of the market but Tony Martin said last week that Heartbreak City and Quick Jack were his two most likely runners, so that puts me right off Thomas Edison.
Low Key 14/1 (Sporting Bet) win only
Hearbreak City 16/1 win only (already advised)<Those will be my two for this race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
TAPK the legendary King of foresight has been sitting patiently like a Barn Owl in a Barn for the 48hr decs for this.I have been known to go in hard and early but since I became a Eunoch those urges have subsided and now I can Pray like a Praying Mantice.I have been on my knees this week praying that Bayan gets into this years race as he has a piece of form that suggests to me he’s thrown in.That form came from Cheltenham in the Coral cup of 2014 where he finished 3rd to 2 of my National hunt pals in ‘Whisper and Get me out of here’.I know some will snigger at that but TAPK knows a horse when he sees one and he knows a Trainer that can prepare this 6yo for a tilt.I have snaffled a little bit of 25/1 but 20/1 is freely available still,that of course wont last long now I have pounced from my perch high in a Barn somewhere in Derbys.
Bayan’s one i like the look of too. Himself and Cassells rock are 2 that have a piece of form that has caught my eye is their run in the 1 mile 6 handicap at Leopardstown last September. They were in off 90(B) and 85(CR) that day and CR had a decent claimer taking off 5 so effectively ran off 80 and he finished 2nd with Bayan 3 lengths back in 4th.
That race now looks like it could be quite strong with the winner toe the line who won that day off 86 now rated 102,the 3rd home that day off 92 is now rated 109 and Bayan and Cassells rock have both only had 1 flat run since that and now each race off 84
I see Cam Hardie’s booked by Elliott? Is he still claiming or has he used it up? Seems an unusual booking but Gordon’s no fool. The other one that is of interest to me is Rennetti. Mullins seems to be targetting these staying flat races a lot recently and like Max Dynamite this boy’s another Rich Ricci animal that looks very unexposed and could have a part to play if there’s plenty of rain as his best French form seems to be on bad ground.
Steve, all about Heartbreak City for me too, really excited about this horse, and think he’s got some big races in him.
I might take a chance on a couple I’ve been waiting on for a decent prize, though I’d also have to be honest and say The Cesarewitch wasn’t where I’d expected to see them end up. They’re priced accordingly though, and in a race where I don’t fancy much else other than Heartbreak City, I’ll take an each way chance at a price. Norab and Cinilla both around 50’s
Heartbreak City 16’s
TAPK the legendary King of foresight has been sitting patiently like a Barn Owl in a Barn for the 48hr decs for this.I have been known to go in hard and early but since I became a Eunoch those urges have subsided and now I can Pray like a Praying Mantice.I have been on my knees this week praying that Bayan gets into this years race as he has a piece of form that suggests to me he’s thrown in.That form came from Cheltenham in the Coral cup of 2014 where he finished 3rd to 2 of my National hunt pals in ‘Whisper and Get me out of here’.I know some will snigger at that but TAPK knows a horse when he sees one and he knows a Trainer that can prepare this 6yo for a tilt.I have snaffled a little bit of 25/1 but 20/1 is freely available still,that of course wont last long now I have pounced from my perch high in a Barn somewhere in Derbys.
Wholeheartedly in agreement Gord, but it’s not just because of that Cheltnham form. Bayan has plenty of quality form over the sticks, and his form on the level isn’t too shabby either. All of his flat runs have one thing in common, he’s shaped as though a test such as this will bring the best out of him.
Elliott has become one of the top powers either side of the sea and has long been well able prime one for a big target. He is excellent at preparing one for a big day and I’d be hoping this has been the plan for Bayan since the Galway Hurdle.
Elliott’s team seems to be getting stronger every year, and one of his brightest young talents is entered over the weekend in the shape of Tycoon Prince.
Bobby, good luck with Heartbreak City.
Oriental Fox, Big Thunder, High Secret and Magic Dancer [rated 98 and is the ‘what on earth is he doing in this race’ horse]. May have a rare win bet on Heartbreak City to cover my losses. No computer for a week so haven’t had time to look at the race properly.
It’s not the easiest race to win with topweight. Aaim To Prosper managed it
at 66/1 in 2010, but on checking back, you have to go back to 1976 for for
the last one before that.So the stats are against Oriental Fox, but I think he has the right credentials
for this race, having won the Cesarewith trial (off 99) in 2013 and wen’t on to
run a very decent 6th in The Cesarewitch, (off 104) having been hampered over a
furlong out, when still in the mix, and eased thereafter when his chance had gone.He was 5th in the Gold Cup at Ascot in 2014 and won the Queen Alexandra Stakes at
Ascot in June this year. Add to that two very good performances in Group races
in France last twice out, and it all amounts to a horse that is top grade. He
has a lot to carry with 9st 10lbs, but he nearly always carries top weight in
his races.Maybe it’s an omen that it’s Mark Johnston’s birthday, but in any case I think he
is a serious race horse with a serious chance of winning this off 106, just 2 lbs more
than in 2013.I grabbed 22/1 early this morning with Betvictor, but 20/1 is still available now. I
think that makes great value e/w.Good luck guys
Unlucky BigG, at least you had it each way.
Very good shout
Thanks Bobby, I thought for a moment he was going to hang on,
but I pretty much new before they gave the photo result that
he was 2nd.E/w eases the pain, but what a gamble went on him in the ten
minutes before the off. That was some serious money to bring
him into 7/1 from 20/1.Nice call, BigG. Gotta feel gutted for the scoop6 bonus hunter too
Agreed Joe, I’ve maybe just missed out on a few hundred, but he must be gutted. In a
way I’m glad for him that Oriental Fox wasn’t half a point lower, at joint favourite
and being the lower number of the two favourites, he would have been the one carrying
the punter’s hopes. It would have been gut wrenching for him had he been pipped on
the post.It can be a tough game at times
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