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Spotlight in the RP says;
"He does make his hurdles debut on the back of another long absence on ground softer than ideal but the problem he has had – heat in a leg – <b>evidently wasn’t that serious</b>, he is most unlikey to want for fitness hailing from the Pipe stable and, with Super Nick not setting that exacting a standard, really should win."
A 644 day break suggests that it was serious in my opinion. Apologies if I have misunderstood the above.
Anyway, my main question is – as I’m not a big ratings man – is it fair to say that this horse has at least three stone in hand tomorrow on the best of his chase form, perhaps even more?
Mike
Anyway, my main question is – as I’m not a big ratings man – is it fair to say that this horse has at least three stone in hand tomorrow on the best of his chase form, perhaps even more?
His best chase form has to be in the 160’s (even though his OR is only 160 I’d rate his Betfair Bowl around half a stone better, RPRs have it at 171). Super Nick is by far best of the rest on previous, and his top form won’t break the 120 mark. So yes, he has 3 stone and more based on his chase form.
All that being said, I won’t be touching him FTO after such a long break. ‘Watch with interest’ is the official line.
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MM
The stable has been known to look after their better horses even when the injury isn’t regarded as ‘serious’.
Well Chief was also wrapped in cotton wool and not raced for 2 years, – with a similar injury as I recall. Having said that, WC did return in his correct discipline, and for a much more attractive prize than a 3k egg & spoon race.Cheers for that Reet.
It’s just a bit strange reading that the injury wasn’t serious yet the horse has been absent for 644 days. But I know exactly what you mean though.
Perhaps there is a plan tomorrow. The horse is now a 10 year old and maybe the stable are thinking there is no way on this earth he can be competitive from his current mark in chases.
Am I correct in saying that Celestial Gold can remain a ‘Novice Hurdler’ for the whole season? So maybe a victory tomorrow, and a string of novice hurdle wins, might open up a few options later in the season over hurdles rather than fences.
Or am I talking a load of crap?
Mike
Wouldn’t surprise me if the Pipe stable is plotting a National run (dunno if he is entered or not).
The hurdle run could be part of a plan, including 1 or 2 more before the big one, in order to keep his handicap mark down.
The owner seems to have been addicted to trying to win the race over the past decade.
Just a thought.
Am I correct in saying that Celestial Gold can remain a ‘Novice Hurdler’ for the whole season? So maybe a victory tomorrow, and a string of novice hurdle wins, might open up a few options later in the season over hurdles rather than fences.
MikeYes Mike, Celestial Gold can run in novice hurdles for the rest of the season if the Pipe team wanted to go down this route but I will be surprised and I think his future will be over fences and this is just a warm up. I agree with Friggo that this race is best watched and not one to bet on.
Pete
Thanks guys.
Evidently I was talking crap as David Pipe has told ATR that Celestial Gold is being aimed at the Gold Cup and is in all the big staying chases towards the end of the season.
Obviously today is just a ‘pipe-opener’ (pardon the pun), though it was intersting to hear Pipe reiterate what has been said on here, that the horse is best left alone today in terms of betting purposes – not that I was thinking of having a bet anyway – I would rather stick pins in my eyes than back a short-priced Pipe horse.
Mike
I think Pegwell’s spot on… Running in the gold cup wouldn’t affect his national mark would it? I could see them tuning him up over hurdles, getting his eye in at the GC and then onto the national.. He stays all day so I wouldn;t be surprised.. They might even bypass the Gold Cup as he will struggle to get in the first five imo.
Nick
Super Nick tried to run out at the stable bend at Aintree in his second Bumper start (he won by 7 lengths) and he practically pulled himself up at Haydock in a Brush Hurdles race. It’s fair to say he’s a bit of a character, not the sort of horse I’d be too keen on putting too much money on.
I think Pegwell’s spot on… Running in the gold cup wouldn’t affect his national mark would it? I could see them tuning him up over hurdles, getting his eye in at the GC and then onto the national.. He stays all day so I wouldn;t be surprised.. They might even bypass the Gold Cup as he will struggle to get in the first five imo.
Nick
The weights for the National are normally published in February at some point, so he could win the GC if he wants and will still have the same mark as he was initially given for the National come April 5th.
I think it would be an interesting entry. When he won the BF Bowl he ran off 160, and will probably have been put up for his effort. However, the 2 years absence would certainly give Mr Smith something to think about, and we could see him given something as low as the mid-150’s, meaning that officially he’d be very well in.
Given that the handicapper is at liberty to frame the National weights pretty much as he pleases, horses 1-10 in the field will probably be ‘officially well-in’ too. Celestial Gold would be an interesting runner though.
Well that run was too bad to be true. Pulled up and beaten by some of the worst novice hurdlers in the UK…!!?!?!
I may be being niave but that horse had no intention of running competitively today. Yes he hinted at it not being a 4-7 shot this morning but he really should have told us it was just a run out for him, which it was. It cruised up as easily as the winner and was never once ridden out. He just never tried. In my opinion David Pipe has cheated the punters today.
To be fair he did say in the racing post the other day that the horse would need the run.
His form on today’s ground should have put a few people off too to be honest.
Gareth.
I may be being niave but that horse had no intention of running competitively today. Yes he hinted at it not being a 4-7 shot this morning but he really should have told us it was just a run out for him, which it was. It cruised up as easily as the winner and was never once ridden out. He just never tried. In my opinion David Pipe has cheated the punters today.
Strong words KS – but I know what you mean. Even allowing for the conditions and the absence, that was a poor effort in a race that if you took Super Nick out, would have made a seller look like a Gold Cup
.Just to defend Pipe slightly, he looked almost inconsolable in his interview after the race, you could see the shock on his face. I think Murphy new the horse was knackered and just eased him – but the run was too bad to be true in all honesty – maybe the horse is now a spent force.
Mike
To be fair he did say in the racing post the other day that the horse would need the run.
Did ATR manage to get a hold of Mr Pipe after the race? I’d have wagered he came out with the same as an excuse. But there’s "needing the run" and then there’s "not running to within 5st of your mark", Davy boy!
Yes Friggo ATR spoke to Pipe after the race.
I’m not 100% certain I caught all of it but I think I did – and if I did they never spoke about how disappointing he was today and instead they spoke about how important it is for the horse to be fit and well tomorrow (which of course is true, but they should have discussed the race).
The only reference made to the race was Pipe saying that he thought Murphy looked after the horse after it had got very tired.
Mike
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