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Think this can go well tomorrow in what looks a weak renewal.
He won the same race that Prince of Lir won last year and then went on to win the Norfolk and I reckon he would have beaten DeBruyne horse if the woodcote had been over five furlongs.
If you want a saver think you can do worse than back Havard grey as the form was well and truly franked yesterday by the winner of the windsor castle. A nice type however he is unlikely to be able to dominate this time with the muscular McErin in opposition. That one is respected and although he was put in his place by Arawak when they both galloped at ascot he had previously galloped very well at Keeneland.
Personally I’ll be disappointed if Cardsharp can win. He is exposed as a second tier horse in his division. I think it’s too soon to say it’s a weak renewal when there are plenty of ‘could be anything’ types.
I agree with you in principal though. It feels like a shonky market which should yield plenty of value away from the fav. McErin isn’t one of the top Wesley Ward juicers but conceivably could dip even shorter than the current 4/1 if Happy Like A Fool skates in today.
I though Havana Grey was a little flattered at Sandown – just bagged the rail at a track where the draw is such a massive edge.
Nine Below Zero is the one for me. I’ve nibbled away at 15 on Betfair and hope to pick up similar odds with one of the major firms if Happy Like A Fool wins today. NBZ spanked Windsor Castle 4th Mokaatil at Salisbury and was value for much much more than the margin.
Billy Dylan possibly another I might add for the 4, 5 and 6 places. For a Brighton maiden, I think the race he won last time was unusually strong.
I hear what you’re saying but think it’s improving and we’ve seen Johnston win with similar exposed types before
I did Sound And Silence ante post for this race. He was 14/1 and then promptly got beat at Sandown. He was rerouted to the Windsor Castle and, of course, he won it.
Havana Grey was the winner of that Sandown race and that was a nice form boost yesterday. There isn’t a lot between him and Frozen Angel though, with the latter getting going too late last time.
Nine Below Zero is a horse I like. I backed him last time and he was an easy winning tip, backed in from his early odds, which I felt were overly big due to the 6 lb winner’s penalty. I think he’s underestimated here with improvement still possible.
I have been aware of McErin for a while and have watched him. I wasn’t particularly struck with the strength of the race he won, with him being 2/5 Fav and the other four runners 7/2, 8/1, 20/1 and 40/1. He has a low action, not overly sharp in cadence and he should handle the fast ground. I will wait until tomorrow to see what way the odds lie but I suspect the Ward horse will be too short.
After the poor effort of De Bruyne Horse in the Coventry, I can’t have Cardsharp. I don’t find Johnston reliable either. We saw Yalta as a speedster last year who never really ran the same race twice. I’ll see but I may not bet here.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Surely after Happy like a fool got put in her place there the vibes for the rest of Ward’s two year old runners can’t be good, as that was supposed to be his best shot. I actually said on the coventry thread that I thought there was a good chance he had nothing this year as none of his that galloped at keeneland particularly impressed me.
Had a very limited look at this race, but with 4 places available at 12’s, I don’t think it’s out of the question that True Blue Moon can get involved here.
I’ve done Cardsharp too. Each way 16s.
Shapes as if he didn’t stay at Epsom. Backed it at 5f Beverley and won cosily.
Will run well here.
Happy Like a Fool was only beaten by a very good horse in Heartache, who maximised the draw bias – not sure you can say she was put in her place as she comfortably beat everything else…
For me this is a no-bet race, very tricky…if I was forced to choosing one it would be Koditime, who should revel in this faster ground after getting bogged down in the last furlong at Newbury last time behind Denaar.
I also quite like True Blue Moon in this; brings in some of the best form around and I liked the way he picks up. I won’t give up on Frozen Angel despite his reversal last time out as this horse has a serious engine and at the prices I like Billy Dylan who I thought was quietly impressive at Brighton.
I won’t bet here. There is no value at the current odds.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I won’t bet here. There is no value at the current odds.
Go on, have a small one on Nine Below Zero. I will if you will.
Getting a bit worried about the draw for my pair. They’re in Box 4 and Box 7 with the going stick saying there is still a high draw bias after last night’s watering.
Just added True Blue Moon to the team each-way at 16s.
Done: Mcerin 15/2, It Don’y Come Easy 17/2 and Koditime 14/1 with a saver on Santry 13/2.
Suspect Mcerin will be backed on course when paddock experts see what he looks like.
It Don’t Come Easy put up an excellent performance on similar ground at Mussel’… Draw is a bit of a worry though.
Koditime looked really good on penultimate start and pulled too hard over 6f last time.Value Is EverythingI’ve gone for the exposed Sioux Nation 20/1. I think 5f on firm ground is exactly what this colt needs. His 2nd to Brother Bear on GF over 6f looks much better after Brother Bear’s respectable effort in the Coventry, and he didn’t handle the soft ground at all in the Curragh last time out. I think the drop back in trip on a firmer surface is right up his alley.
One for the little man here SANTRY at 15/2 !! If this goes on the ground it will win!!
Nine below Zero as a saver.
Billy Dylan has hit 100/1. The optimist in me has briefly taken over and I’ve gone in with a speculative each-way bet with Bet365 (1/4, 4 places).
Mcerin friendless, Koditime and It Don’t Come Easy very popular.
I did Nine Below Zero purely for the reason that I did him last time and he’s paid for the bet today. Low draw but he’s finished his races strongly and may come there at the finish off a strong pace. Tricky race but good luck everybody.
Nine Below Zero 9/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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