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May I ask a question Bosranic? Do you really think that beating GW a hd entitles Authorized to win an Arc?
Take NCC out of the race and Authorized has scraped home. Not Arc winning form IMO. I’d say that Authorized may get placed in an average Arc on the form of that one race alone.Hi, newbie here – first post.
Great race and what an inspired ride by Ryan Moore – a thoroughly deserved victory by Notnowcato.
The Eclipse has often proved to be the graveyard for Derby winners. Authorized’s connections should not be too down hearted – though history suggests that he will find it equally difficult to win the King George & Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes after such a hard race – and especially after being defeated.
It is no coincidence that only two Derby winners have both gone on to win the Eclipse and King George & Queen Elizabeth in the last thirty six years – ’71 and ’89.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Bosranic,
I don’t think you can draw any conclusions about where the winner might have finished if he’d stayed on the far side. Notnowcato actually travelled further than those he beat and had to race on his own for over 3 furlongs, so it appeared to be a performance of some merit even if he did find the fastest strip of ground. We will know more when we see the speed rating.
I agree that it was a very bold move by Moore because it could have so easily left him with egg on his face. There was no rush over to the stands side in the mile handicap that preceded the Eclipse, which you would have expected if the consensus amongst the jockeys was to take that route.
As for Authorized, his jockey having elected to stay on the far side, all Dettori could do was make sure he won that race and he did, always holding George Washington.
These two races in one are always unsatisfactory from a purist’s point because they ask more questions than they answer. For what it’s worth, my view is that Notnowcato has been underrated(but not by you, Bosranic) and this form should(subject to evidence of a fairly run race) be rated very highly indeed.
These two races in one are always unsatisfactory from a purist’s point because they ask more questions than they answer. For what it’s worth, my view is that Notnowcato has been underrated(but not by you, Bosranic) and this form should(subject to evidence of a fairly run race) be rated very highly indeed.
And therefore, the fact that Manduro beat Notnowcato over 5L probably means that Manduro is fully justified in being hailed as the best 10f horse in Europe.
Mike
Welcome, Himself!!
Colin
Thanks seabird ( what a horse! , btw).
Good to be among such knowledgeable racing people.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
What a race!! My conclusion of the Eclipse:
George Washington DOES stay 10F
Authorized was a good Derby winner
Notnowcato was very much an underrated horse (much to my advantage – see my previous post)
I for one am NOT blaming the riders who didn’t follow Ryan Moore. There’s a fine line between winning and losing, as the winning margin suggests. What he did took courage – if he would have lost by a ShortHead he would have been slated.
This was a truly run race. The two main contenders running stride for stride at the rear of the field ready to pounce. Ryan Moore made a bold, intelligent move and it won his horse the race.
Had he remained with the rest of the field, in my opinion, he would have been third. George Washington ran his race and stayed the trip but Authorized was always in control of that dual.
This race has only enhanced the reputation of Authorized, in my opinion. Had Notnowcato remained on the far side, Authorized would have beat him. Had that been the case, he would have beaten a previous Guineas winner over 10F (to prove he has sufficient speed) and a dual Group 1 winner – both OLDER horses.
Authorized to win the Arc…
Agree with all that except…GW will have Authorized if he comes the Irish Champion, absolutely atrocious ride from Seamie, we can see now why mr Fallon is No1 in Ballyd, and Teofilo will kick both arses..roll on september
Notnwcato’s speed rating should be around the 120 mark, which might hold the form down slightly, although I would expect the RPR and Timeform to be around 125, so a very useful performance, but perhaps not quite as good as his Curragh victory against Dylan Thomas, which was given a RPR of 127.
Yellowstone, who is a pretty good marker(RPR, 112 last three runs) was beaten only three lengths, which also holds the form down.
Have you allowed for the ground drying out between the start and the end of the card or just taken the times as read? I thought that Notnowcato’s time rating would be in the teens, either way.
Just a rough estimate based on the time of the (fairly run) mile handicap which will probably be used as a time marker.
I estimated Ordnance Row at a RPR of about 110, so I would expect his speed rating to be close to that(within 5lbs). Notnowcato was about 13lbs better on my reckoning, although if he raced on slightly faster ground due to drying out etc., it could well be that he will only be rated in the teens.
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Have you allowed for the ground drying out between the start and the end of the card or just taken the times as read? I thought that Notnowcato’s time rating would be in the teens, either way.
Which is about what I’d rate his performance, on form, yesterday.
Authorized didn’t show anywhere near his best, probably owing to the ground and the way he was ridden, George Washington simply isn’t as good as he is over Im, and Yellowstone might have improved by 2 or 3lbs.
Not a vintage Eclipse by any stretch.- Total Posts 17716
The RP website shows Notnowcato accorded a s/f of 117, and a RPR of 127.
By my reckoning, that suggests Yellowstone ran to 121 yesterday, 9lb higher than his best previous rating, an enormous amount of improvement for one so consistent, and on his 9th career outing.
Don’t believe he was anywhere near that good, myself.Reet, just reading your comments I’ve just checked my ratings re Authorized. In the Dante I rated him 118. After rating the Eclipse I rated him 117. I didn’t realise till checking that there is only one pound difference. It would seem therefore that he is around a 115 – 120 horse over ten furlongs. I have him rated 126 incidently on his Derby run which indicates strongly that he is a better horse over twelve furlongs.
I have Notnowcato rated 120 yesterday which is exactly the same as I rated him in Ireland when beating Dylan Thomas.
George Washington I have running to exactly the same mark as he ran to at Ascot and Yellowstone improving five pounds on his previous best to 115.
Not a vintage Eclipse. Really don’t understand why the Racing Post have gone so high with their ratings.
I tend to agree with you, RH. I wouldn’t have expected Yellowstone to be 9lbs better than his three previous races, but it isn’t out of the question. 3yos are often raised by this amount for winning a decent handicap, but I wouldn’t trust Yellowstone’s RPR from this race in future events.
I think races like this can expose the limitations of formal handicapping, as used by the RP .If you give the winner a figure that looks right, you have to use the ‘set in stone’ conversions for time/weight/distance/weight for age to rate the horses that finished behind.
Private handicappers, like Flash, can make use of their opinion and what they see, so have an advantage – provided they know what they are doing.
I’ve seen enough strange results this season to suggest that although some of us tend to trust the RPRs and Topspeed, they are perhaps only crude measures of what has happened. I also ask myself: with all the ratings and statistics at our fingertips, are we much further forward in our understanding than Phil Bull and Dick Whitford, who pioneered this type of analysis all those years ago? I wonder.
Could the improvement in Yellowstone be down to the trip? On breeding 10f should be his trip…not 12f which he has last ran in.
Aidan,
Could be, but he seems to lack the pace to win races at any distance at this level, which is perhaps why they have tried him over 12f. He doesn’t look to be a 120+ horse at the moment.
A few questions were fielded my way and only now have I got time to respond.
It’s still my opinion that Authorized would have beaten Notnowcato had the horse remained on the far side. Taking into consideration that Notnowcato was not only running on quicker, but fresh ground.
It’s true that the horse wasted ground when Ryan made the manouvre. However, take a look at the replay. Turning for home Notnowcato had a four lenghth lead over Authorized. Passing the two furlong marker, the eventual winner appears to be trailing the field (a good marker is where the railing is replaced by hedges on the stands side).
It’s therefore apparent that the quicker, fresher ground enabled the horse to regain the lead and, inevitably, win the race.
Do I think that beating GW a head enables Authorized to win an Arc? Well, beating a previous Guineas winner who wouldn’t look out of place in the July Cup for speed over 10F isn’t bad form. I just think the conditions will also suit the horse. The ground is not a problem for this Derby winner who travels well in his races and also posseses the neccesary blend of speed and stamina you need to win an Arc. Peter Chapple Hyam is also a master at peaking his horses for a big race – and there’s no bigger all-age race in europe than the Arc.
Take Care
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