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It’s not often I get excited seeing a class 4 handicap at Southwell, but yesterday was the exception where I think we could have seen a real contender in the Cambridgeshire in Foolin Myself
The forgotton horse of 2007 of a highly competitive maiden which Foolin Myself downed Tartan Bearer but suffered a bad injury and hasn’t been seen since that, he somewhat struggled to regain the heights of his maiden win for Barry Hills, was disappointing favourite on reappreance and didn’t do much else in other races to be fair, but was then moved stables to Michael Bell and has seemed to have prospered very well.
Hayley Turner led him to 2nd if I remember on KG & QE day and would have won imo if he never badly hung like he did, and today he beat some horses that had already beat him prior, it looked comepetitive on form but he totally destroyed the field and probably in 2nd gear, surely the blinkers first time have been a huge success, and while not getting carried away on lets face it was a handicap on sand he seemed huge at 40/1 imo which is a very worthy punt.
Nicely bred too, and I think he is open to massive improvement.
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Foolin Myself has been with Michael Bell all season, reappearance included. I’d have thought his performance today had far more to do with the surface – he needs soft ground.
Had a look at the race this evening – trying to guess what Mr Seagal might put up during the week.
Despite there being nearly 100 still in at this stage I found myself coming back to Invisible Man again and again.
He has the same connections as Pipedreamer who won the race so well afew years ago when put up by Pricewise. I saw his win the last day – he won quite cosily beating two future winners in the process. He has course form to boot! According to RP quotes ‘ the trainer has always thought abit of him’ and he fits the overall profile – 3 year old improver who may be a future group horse.
For any of an arbing disposition it may be a quick in and out job if he is put up as he is entered in a race at Thirsk on Saturday along with some other notable Cambridgeshire entries – so he will either be 8/1 favourite for the Cambridgeshire on saturday night or a probable non-runner.
There you go Tom just cut and paste this article into the post on Wednesday and send me the cheque. LOL.
Red, you will be Foolin Yourself if you think your horse will even get a run off a mark of 88,the horse i would be interested in is
Docofthebay
at
33/1
,his mark of 97 is guaranteed a place in the line up and even though his form these days is very in and out,just remember he chased home Pipedreamer in the race 2 years ago,only beaten a length off a mark of 98, he has run off marks as high as 107 so his trainer has placed him well to get back down to a very winnable mark! He was expected to run a very big race in the Hunt cup this year before the starter had a funny turn and removed both my Ante-Post selections from re-entering the stalls! Roaring Forte being the other one!
Star Express looks well-handicapped to me, even with the burden he’ll carry. We’ll see – assuming he runs.
Bushman ran a good "trial" race today although would probably need soft ground to figure. The race often throws up a shock so anything longer than 33-1 cant be discounted out of hand.
four winds of michael bells is very highly regarded and i imagine bell thinks he is a far more realistic contender than foolin myself who is a good horse in his own right but i dont think he could live with four winds who has contested group races this year addmittedly unseuccesfully but if dropped back to a mile at his favoured track hes already won over course and distance surely should have a major chance has failed to c out a mile and a quater but i think hes a potential group horse nwxt year . i like acrostic also im convinced he has more to offer.
four winds could not accellrate last time in ireland on the softish surface hanging to the left under pressure suggesting grounds issues would need it to be goodish or quickish ground to be seen to best effect
I want to see Nanton win the race, although I somewhat doubt he can beat all the better handicapped improvers! The only reason I want to see him win (apart from a reward for consistency) is that he then may attempt the Cesarewitch! What a double that would be!
Hey, heard a rumour that Shamali is out for the season, anyone know if thats the case or not?
Prob true seeing as he was my antepost play and was going to go in again come the day
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He was taken out of the Ebor withoiut a word of why although they did say after he won he might struggle at the trip. I was then told he had an injury and wouldn’t run again this season so I’m surprised to see him quoted. One for the back burner I reckon until someone confirms he’s ok
Tryst hasn’t run for some time either but has been oustanding on the gallops lately. He was regarded as a bit of a certainty the last time he ran but was turned over by Roaring Forte and hasn’t been seen since.
The only problem is he is very highly regarded and him neing him SMS won’t risk running him unless everything is in his favour. I already managed to get a bit of 25’s 20’s and 16’s ew so it’s a case of you put down your money and take your chances. No doubt if they come out publically and says he runs the money will come pouring in.
Cheers fist, I like Tryst as an individual but off his mark would need to win one or more to be sure to get in wouldnt he? and no entries as yet, what is the penalty system for the cambs anyway?
Another Stoute horse I would be very keen on granted some cut is Dancourt, but he would prob need to win the Newbury race he is in to get a run.
Obviously hated the quick ground up the straight at Haydock last time and wouldnt want to be risked again. Nevertheless showed his class at the top of the straight by being the only horse from the back to make instant ground and moved easily into contention, also is physically big and powerful which for me is a huge plus for this race.
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It’s the same old story Twinkle all depends on what else runs. The same could be said about 2 or 3 of the other market leaders if all those with higher marks were to turn up.
Somehow the bookmakers seem to know what’s what with these races and can work out what’s likely to run and what isn’t. I suppose a lot of it is to do with moles and enquiries they get but they’re never far of the mark.
You certainly got me looking as ratings aren’t my thing at all. So I’m open for someone to point out the obvious but as far as I can see:-
SMS has 5 entries of which Tryst has the lowest OR but has the highest RPR. Of the 5 he is the shortest in the betting…….handicap snip perhaps?
SMS said when he won hist first or second race the Cambridgeshire was a possibility for Danecourt and it’s surprising to see him available at 22/1 while Tryst is generally 16/1…Wouldn’t put you off backing him though as he has, as things stand, the better chance of the 2 running..of course that could change if Tryst turns out in the next fortnight.
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The Ante-post fav Invisible Man runs today off 95. I would imagine if he wins today he’s guaranteed a place in the big one. Bound to be short but Stoute’s should make a him backable…. worth a punt?
Foolin’ myself sounds interesting. But I’m leaning towards Bushman now, as his profile suggest a lot of potential improvement.
He ran a fast second to Many Volumes (his best time, too), last year, as a 4-year old, his first year of racing, but the slower race he ran when beating Little White Lie before that has some impressive collateral form, it seems to me.
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