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Commonwealth Cup 2015

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  • #988574
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    If Tendu wants further than five furlongs then there must be some value in the race Steve!! I am on Zeb Un Nisa at 20/1 . It was unlucky behind Waady last time at Sandown and is a huge price.

    I didn’t see the race won by Waady Raymo. I would imagine Gosden knows how good Tendu is compared to Waady but I thought he would leave her at 6f for her next start, especially at York.

    Roger Charlton had a nice winner with Temptress last Saturday and he’s had quite a few second places this month, so the stable is getting there. Just a slight concern about the step up in class for me.

    If I had to bet, it would be on the other horse with a Z at the start of the name.

    Zuhoor Baynouna had quite a good first season, winning a couple of times and she was out of her depth a bit when last in the Cheveley Park behind Tiggy Wiggy. She was third behind Patience Alexander and Tiggy Wiggy in the Marygate at York last season and I think few people would recall that she was actually favourite that day, ahead of the two fillies who would later fill 1st and 2nd spots in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot.

    Richard Fahey’s filly finished the season with a win at Musselburgh, where she won easily, in quite taking style. She kicked off this season with another win, this time in a listed contest at Bath, where she looked a speedy filly worth keeping on side. The third horse that day, Newsletter also won a Listed race next time and it looks decent form.

    Zuhoor Baynouna has to give 3 lbs to Gosden’s Tendu but at 8/1 I think she is the value each-way in the race, I’ll be quite surprised if she isn’t in the frame.

    Good luck with the other filly with the good scrabble score for a name.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #991825
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    Tendu was beaten by a neck. I just had a worry that this might not be ideal for her today and she was awfully short to be backing with supreme confidence.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1003453
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    Third to Limato, my ex Coventry horse Adaay has just dotted up at Newbury. That form is looking very solid and if there is any sense they will probably be trimming Limato for the Commonwealth Cup.

    Mind you it will be pretty Uncommon if I actually land any Wealth from my 6/1 Limato. Getting the price is one thing, the winner a totally different matter.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1033842
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    Limato will go straight to this race without another run. The trainer sees no need to race again beforehand and states that the horse goes best when nice and fresh.

    The Wow Signal is still in the betting for the race with two firms, despite being retired and sent to stud. Jesus Wept. :cry:

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1055444
    darren83
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    Question for you guys if this race did not exist how you see the top 3 in betting do in group one sprints this year at Ascot when you think a 3yo was placed at York last week.

    #1064815
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    Question for you guys if this race did not exist how you see the top 3 in betting do in group one sprints this year at Ascot when you think a 3yo was placed at York last week.

    Looking at the big sprints yesterday I could only conclude Sole Power was in the wrong race and was the wrong price. He’s never won at 6f so why not just accept that fact at 8 years of age and concentrate his efforts at 5f, where he has made his name?

    Mustajeeb could be unexposed at these sprint trips and is well worthy of respect. It has to be said that Maarek being so close up tempers enthusiasm for the form a bit though. Gordon Lord Byron scoped badly afterwards, while Sole Power never looked likely at any stage of the race. I was surprised Astaire was favourite, for me he’s not quite top class and the horse who beat him earlier in the season, Naadirr, ran like a drain in the Duke Of York next time.

    Over at Haydock the 5f horses got their chance to shine and Pearl Secret finally made the step up to the big time after a few disappointments. It didn’t look a strong renewal though, with Hot Streak as favourite showing the lack of real depth. Jack Dexter has looked as good as he has ever been this season and he has gone close here as a previously well exposed sprinter not quite at the top level. I wouldn’t rule him out of a big win if he gets his soft ground this year at the right time but it’s not exactly indicative of a raft of talent in the Sprinting division that he is going close in these group races.

    G Force had a bad experience on bottomless ground after his Sprint Cup triumph but back to 5f here and having his first run for a while left him as one to oppose under his penalty. At just 4 years old he remains with scope when nearer full form and probably back at 6f. His good run in the Nunthorpe last year convinced me his future probably lay at the 6f trip.

    Along with Hot Streak, Goldream was a bit disappointing. I had thought Stepper Point would have been the one when Goldream last won but Simon Cowell’s brother Robert did the business with him that day and I expected he would have been slightly better than he was yesterday, having eyed him at 10/1 earlier in the week as interesting.

    Overall it doesn’t look an awe-inspiring bunch for Limato to be afraid of later in the season. He’ll get his age allowance as well. First of all he needs to consolidate his position by winning the new 3yo sprint at Ascot. Hootenanny looked a fast animal last year and Tiggy Wiggy needs no introduction, although her forays over further were a bit of a negative preparation for a sprinting campaign in my mind.

    I would back Limato to beat the older horses and hopefully stamp some class on the sprinting bingo of recent years.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1064933
    Avatar photoraymo61
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    The older sprinters all look much of a muchness!
    I think that a top class three year old will emerge and beat thses older horses later in the season Steve and your Limato looks like the prime candidate.

    #1069144
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    Limato will go straight to this race without another run. The trainer sees no need to race again beforehand and states that the horse goes best when nice and fresh.

    Apparently has an entry at Haydock on Saturday.
    Trainer saying now it is ground dependant.

    Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026

    #1069245
    Avatar photoThe Ante-Post King
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    Paddy Power go 9/4 ‘Limato’,6/1 ‘Hootenanny’, and 7/1 Tiggy wiggy and I’ve taken that,Hughsie was looking round for dangers at the furlong pole in the 1000gns and a drop back to 6f is perfect,the rest wont see which way she went.

    #1069253
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    Limato and Tiggy Wiggy were Timeform’s best 2 year old colt and filly. Don’t rule out latter’s stable companion Ivawood if he comes back to sprinting. The American Hootenanny is a 4th 3 year old sprinter. Only three European older horses can see capable of serving it up to them are the Irish pair Sole Power (5f) and Mustajeeb (6f) but (in particular) another Hamdan horse Muthmir. First and last named have most scope to improve in to real top class sprinters, better than we’ve seen in recent years. Generally 8/1 Muthmir for the Kings Stand is outstanding value imo.

    Value Is Everything
    #1069256
    Avatar photoThe Ante-Post King
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    Generally 8/1 Muthmir for the Kings Stand is outstanding value imo.

    Nah 25/1 Jack Dexter is outstanding value Ginge.

    #1069304
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    <div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Gingertipster wrote:</div>
    Generally 8/1 Muthmir for the Kings Stand is outstanding value imo.

    Nah 25/1 Jack Dexter is outstanding value Ginge.

    Muthmir needs good or possibly even better a “firmish” surface to be at his best Gord. Royal Ascot is (if not officially) usually run on a firmish surface. Do not trust Royal Ascot going reports, in recent years they’ve been notoriously unrealistic, times would’ve been impossible to do if the official description was accurate.

    Jack Dexter might seem value on his best form, but is thoroughly exposed so won’t improve further and therefore is not up to winning an average Kings Stand. Exposed, inferior horses are always priced up at considerably bigger odds than those of similar ability who may yet improve. Jack Dexter has some good form on a firmish surface, but is more consistent – and fewer rivals go – on softer. On firmish won’t have enough speed at 5f either. Temple was a poor Group 2, with all 6 single figure priced horses – Hot Streak, Danzeo, Goldstream, G Force, Great Minds and Take Cover – well below form. So might have been technically “unlucky” in running, but “lucky” best horses in the race failed to deliver. However, if it came up soft or heavy then 25/1 Jack Dexter would indeed be outstanding value; that’s a big IF. So 25/1 is imo not value at this stage when considering the usual seasonal going bias.

    Value Is Everything
    #1085596
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    The Sandy Lane Stakes has been priced up and unsurprisingly Limato is favourite. 11/8 with Paddy Power looks likely to be as big as we will see but you never know. Stan James have him 10/11.

    Henry Candy’s Gelding has already beaten Mattmu, who is second favourite and Adaay who is next in the betting. Toocoolforschool drops back from 7f in the Greenham, a race that has only really been boosted by Ivawood in the two Guineas, with the rest being disappointing. The concern for me is that his best run came on soft ground and it is currently Good at Haydock.

    I must admit, I don’t like trainers going against their original plans. It was originally said that Limato would go straight to Royal Ascot, as he goes best when well fresh according to Henry Candy. It was felt that another run beforehand was not necessary. I always question U-turns, and the statement that this run will help him for Ascot and that it would have been a long time to be doing nothing with the horse doesn’t make a lot of sense. The gap between the Pavilion Stakes and The Commonwealth Cup was always what it was, it’s not like they sneaked the race a bit later into the year.

    I prefer if trainers are going to have a plan, that they make it a cunning plan and then stick to the plan.

    Mattmu looks the likeliest danger. He ran well against his elders in Group 2 company last time, beaten only a head. That looks better to me than Adaay’s win in listed company, where Salt Island was 3rd.

    Surely a decent win would see Limato cut to less than 2/1 for the Commonwealth Cup.

    This will be the time of year where we find out if will remain the force she was last year. She was always the type to have concerns about at 3yo and I am not 100% sure her Guineas run has proved 100% that she is still the bullet she was last season. The two fillies who bested her in the Fred Darling absolutely stank Newmarket out in the Guineas and Jellicle Ball was thrashed by Lady Of Dubai next time, where she was about as popular as a fart in a frogman’s suit in the betting beforehand. I prefer the colts for the moment in the sprinting division, rather than the filly dropping back in trip.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1086169
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    Good to soft at Haydock now and there must be a chance Limato won’t run I would have thought.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1087355
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    I didn’t like the change of heart from Candy coming here after saying the horse didn’t need another run. I thought I read Candy saying the horse wouldn’t run with soft in the going description. If that was correct he only has himself to blame for the horse’s reversal today.

    I had a bad feeling all this week that this was going to happen.

    A double kick in the nuts to have Adaay winning it. I had money on him at 12/1 for the Coventry last season and he ran like a drain before another disappointing effort afterwards.

    That’s the air of immortality bust with Limato anyway.

    Make a plan, make it a cunning one, and stick to it Henry.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1087356
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    Do we still pile on for Ascot Steve?

    Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026

    #1087357
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    Ivawood looks Jersey bound, 6f for him is too far a step back here so that’s a good decision I think.

    Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026

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