- This topic has 179 replies, 28 voices, and was last updated 8 months, 1 week ago by
.
-
Posts
-
“Nick rockett has NHC written all over him imo”
After the race yesterday assistant trainer said “He’ll get further, that was two-five today and he’d have no issue getting a trip. He’s a good relaxed horse and jumps very well.The boss will make a plan now.”
I am hoping ‘getting a trip’ and ‘making a plan’ means the NH Chase.
I don’t think Nick Rockett would win a Brown Advisory. I’m leaning towards FTF coming here. Willie may need both him and GW to try and win the race as he doesn’t have a short priced one in it. NH Chase looks open and again Willie doesn’t have a short priced one so put Nick Rickett in it i say, rather than relying on just Embassy Gardens (not sure Minella Cocooner would get the trip and/or be as good as he was).
Doing a bit of tidying up before NRNB comes in, I cashed out Grey Dawning, fortunately got the full stake back as he’s a little shorter than when I backed him. I still like him, but think he ought to have beaten Ginny’s Destiny last time, despite the weight concession and the mistake.
I don’t think he’s going to beat either of two of my other selections, GCW or Monty, so I think he’s running for 3rd place at best, and so a fifth of the 33s, less the loss of the win part of the stake, didn’t seem enough to hold onto the bet.
I’ve still got American Mike in there and probably should just cashout and swallow the loss, but that bet is with Paddys who keep the option available a bit longer, I think. I’ll sit tight and cross fingers that he can go on a retrieval mission on better ground somewhere, but frankly not hopeful given last year’s fizzled out season. One of the perils of my penchant for talented crocks I suppose.Phew. They didn’t want to win today with Stay Away Fay it would seem. Held him up, not his style. Won’t do that in March i bet ;o)
I know, sickened, thought he had a great chance . Hope Monty’s will go well now, but also added Minella Cocooner at 33-1 ew with b365. Classy enough to win and place in G1 staying novice hurdles only beaten by the older wiser Nice Guy, settles better now over fences, jumped nicely last time. Will forgive reappearance run as he tends to need it. Just has to win the Ten Up and stay sound for another few weeks.
WPM has just said on Racing Tv that Fact To File comes here.
Until he changes his mind…
Monty’s Star is one of my biggest fancies of the week.
I’ve bet him at bigger prices, but its obviously poor craic to come on here armed with a price I had every opportunity to put up earlier, so I’m happy to go with 11/2 nrnb. I have bet him again at that price anyway. If he wins I’ll have a good day out.
Fact To File might be favourite and can understand – with a lack of other absolute top staying novices why Mullins would come here with FTF… Coming here possibly frees up the out and out stayer Embassy Gardens for the NH Chase… But there is a chance FTF will be outstayed this early in his career.
The Brits aren’t out of it and can see Stay Away Fay running well here.
Value Is EverythingBacked Sandor Clegane each way at 20/1 today. There may possibly only be six or seven runners here, and he is one of the ones certain to run barring injury. It’s a cliche but he has always looked and a chaser and his whole season has undoubtedly been building to this.
He has Cheltenham form in the book, albeit on the new course, when third to Stay Way Fay in the Albert Bartlett, beaten just over a length having come from an unpromising position.
While he has yet to win over fences I would be surprised if he doesn’t put in a career best over the larger obstacles next week. I don’t think he was suited to making the running last time at Naas and even then I would rate the victor Embassy Gardens very highly.
The vibes are incredibly strong about Fact To File, and if there is a future Gold Cup winner in the field it is probably him, and if someone fancied him I couldn’t put them off, but he is unproven at the trip and light on experience so I’ll take my chance.
After him you have Stay Away Fay and Montys Star. The former looks very solid while the latter could be anything but bombed out last year. After that there looks nothing much in the race, so am hopeful Big Sandor can hit the frame at least.
Tony Mullins was on a preview yesterday, saying that Fact To File would beat Galopin in the Gold Cup this year.
I’m going to take that one with a very large pinch of salt.
Tony Mullins probably thinks that, because Fact To File is beating Galopin on the gallops. But just because he has more speed does not make him better, especially at 3m+.
For sure FTF should be a fairly short priced fav for this and I do believe his last time out performance was top quality for a novice. The time tells us that… ie For a novice to put up such a good performance that early in the season is unusual. But on Timeform ratings still has more than 20 lbs to find on Galopin.
As far as this race is concerned, FTF took off up the back straight at Leopardstown. Possible a bigger field will help him settle, but there is imo a fairly large possibility he’ll be too free and does’t stay. So – at the prices – I’ve taken him on with Stay Away Fay and Monty’s Star.
Value Is EverythingIf wanting an each way bet, you might want to get on now, as it looks like 7 runners at most.
Some (like Hills) are already going two places.Value Is EverythingBroadway Boy ruled out of Cheltenham.
The things I want most in life are the things that I can't win.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.