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I’d have to be tempted to go for one of the European horses – I have to believe that our 12f turf horses are better than theres.
Hurricane Run looks the most likely winner despite recent runs.
At likely prices though, I’d go with T H Approval to improve, noting also that:
–  via The Tin Man it arguably has as much a chance as Cacique; and
–  at Churchill Downs this hasn’t been a favourites race.
<br>best regards
wit  <br>
(Edited by wit at 11:56 am on Nov. 2, 2006)
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Hurricane Run has always needed a strong pace at 12f to be fuly effective, something he hasn’t had at all this season.<br>Considering the way the King George was run, he produced an excellent effort to get up in the shadow of the post, and showed there that he is still the same horse as last year, given the right circumstances.<br> Slightly unlucky in the Arc, it was nevertheless an excellent run considering the steady pace and fast ground.<br>Given a proper lead in the ‘Turf’ he should blow these away, but will he get one?<br>Scorpion is the key horse in this respect, already proven over further, able to run his race from the front, and another who cannot afford any hanging about in the early stages, he will hopefully ensure a proper test, thus setting the race up for (imo) the best 12f horse in the world.
(With apologies to Zorro:) ).
edited to add: <br>And he also now has the ground in his favour.;)
<br>(Edited by reet hard at 7:58 am on Nov. 2, 2006)<br>
(Edited by reet hard at 8:01 am on Nov. 2, 2006)
That’s OK reethard:) I do wish Deep had run to form in Paris though:( <br>Agree about the Hurricane. If the Arc first three were in this they’d laugh at this lot – with the possible exception of Scorpion if somehow they’ve got him back to his best. That would be some achievement though, wouldn’t it.
The Tin Man isn’t running.
I’m pretty convinced that none of the Europeans will get the pace they need, and I think Hurricane Run has been over as a winning proposition since he busted a gut to win the King George.
I’m looking forward to this year’s Breeders Cup. It looks distinctly classy. David Junior v George Washington v Bernardini v Discreet Cat is mouth-watering.
Quote: from Brevityy on 1:55 pm on Nov. 2, 2006[br]Discreet Cat isn’t running. George vs. David for last will be a good contest.
Yeah, I just noticed that. Bugger!<br>It’s still the race of the day for me though. Bernardini is obviously a monster, but GW will be a tough nut to crack if he doesn’t get too worked up on the day. He will either run a massive race, or no race at all IMO.
Hurricane Run really has the look of a horse who has lost both his sparkle and interest.
Scorpion is interesting if the ground comes up quick, but I’m finding it hard to compare US v European form – the joys of the Breeders cup ;)
One question that you need to consider about the European horses is whether they can run to their seemingly superior form faced with a tight track that is just 7f round.
O’Brien on Scorpion:
"A slow pace at Churchill Downs would not bother him as he has made the running several times before."
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