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Normally in the elections there will someone saying to follow the bookmakers odds to find out how it is going to pan out.
Well that was totally blown out of the water with the Brexit Market.
I saw an intrepid forumite having a punt on the high remain percentage and when the polls closed it looked a shoo in for Remain.
Minutes after 10 O’Clock the lowest odds on Remain were 1/20, while you could back Leave at 10/1.
Fast forward to 4am and it could not have been any different, as it was 10/1 Remain and as low as 1/100 that we were Offski.
I can’t recall many two horse races where you could have had 10/1 on both selections and been sitting there as happy as an Italian Lothario with two willies.
In this case the bookies were as clueless as all of us and it probably wasn’t safe to take a Lillian Gish incase the market lurched again suddenly.
This looked like a Dog’s Brexit as far as understanding the likely outcome.
A wise man once said never to bet on anything where the Public have a say in the outcome and I doubt any of these bookies traders will be getting the call from the Financial Times any time soon.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
By luck rather than judgment, it was a beautiful bit of trading. It was like Jos Buttler’s T20 Blast stumping the other day!
All the big long-range retail and online bets were on Remain at heavy odds-on. When the books closed, Leave was a big winner and Remain was a relatively small liability. They might not be getting calls from the FT, but the traders have been rubbing fiddies on their tiddies nonetheless.
I’m sure the bookmakers relished laying Remain at long odds-on for weeks and weeks. I found it amazing that a 10/11 each of two race – as the polls more or less predicted over four long months – averaged something like 1/4 3/1 over that time with ludicrous exotics such as 1/6 5/1 appearing in recent weeks
The market was also way out at the last general election when a conservative overall majority was around 16/1 on election eve and actually drifted to around 25/1 on the day itself
All the bookmakers need to do now is to lay England at something woefully short for plenty in the Euro footie as they normally do, and their shares will soar while the rest of the market nosedives after Brexit
Who needs horseracing
Wanted to ask you knowledgeable guys on here a dilemma I want answered, now I have not really followed this debate and the outcome, how it will really effect us time will tell. but my question is
My partner who is Russian obtained her Pharmacology masters in Russia, she came to UK three years ago (Not a paid bride guys lol), anyway she was unable to practice her profession due to the EU rules that she would have to re-sit exams here for three years, and that her masters was not recognised due to being obtained outside the EU.
Now we have left the EU, not fully but as it finalises would she now be able to practice now we have become an independent Country. ?
Thanks Guys
Darren P Goodbody
I’m sure the bookmakers relished laying Remain at long odds-on for weeks and weeks. I found it amazing that a 10/11 each of two race – as the polls more or less predicted over four long months – averaged something like 1/4 3/1 over that time with ludicrous exotics such as 1/6 5/1 appearing in recent weeks
The market was also way out at the last general election when a conservative overall majority was around 16/1 on election eve and actually drifted to around 25/1 on the day itself
All the bookmakers need to do now is to lay England at something woefully short for plenty in the Euro footie as they normally do, and their shares will soar while the rest of the market nosedives after Brexit
Who needs horseracing
This
The leave odds were an amazing giveaway yesterday evening – although you couldn’t get that much on though.
Personally, I’ve potentially made much more money buying shares at rock bottom prices this morning.
Wanted to ask you knowledgeable guys on here a dilemma I want answered, now I have not really followed this debate and the outcome, how it will really effect us time will tell. but my question is
My partner who is Russian obtained her Pharmacology masters in Russia, she came to UK three years ago (Not a paid bride guys lol), anyway she was unable to practice her profession due to the EU rules that she would have to re-sit exams here for three years, and that her masters was not recognised due to being obtained outside the EU.
Now we have left the EU, not fully but as it finalises would she now be able to practice now we have become an independent Country. ?
Thanks Guys
I’m in no way knowledgeable on these matters Darren and I think it’s going to take time (anything up to 2 years) for the UK to negotiate it’s way around our departure from the EU, but the future is looking good for talented young people from countries outside of Europe to come here to work and study without being bogged down by EU rules and regulations.
JacAt one point last night on the BBC just before the count was declared Alex Salmon was watching the betting exchanges and reported that you could get 14/1 on Leave winning the referendum…that was before the close call at Newcastle for Remain and the outstanding victory at Sunderland for Leave when it the odds dropped like a stone to 7/4. How wrong the pollsters and the bookies got it with Bet Fred predicting a 10 point lead to Remain as the Polls closed last night.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...And how wrong Cameron got it. No way would he have given us this vote if he thought he would lose. Shows how out of touch he was with the public
He thought he could do no wrong and believed his own hype. Now he will be remembered as a big time loser. should have taken the hint when he said he was a villa fan. It was brilliant watching the so called experts,the bookies and the pollsters make utter fools of themselves. 1/10 in a two horse race. Hysterical.
I wouldn’t call laying an evens shot at long odds on for weeks foolish. Obviously they were giving 3s or 4s on the other evens shot but evidently weren’t taking stacks on it.
As I remeber the last general election it was a take your pick affair for Next PM the day or two before but 1/20 or so Cameron at 10pm polling day when the experts were all saying it was a toss up still. Of course nobody saw the Con majority coming.
And how wrong Cameron got it. No way would he have given us this vote if he thought he would lose. Shows how out of touch he was with the public
I don’t think Cameron even thought we would ever get a Referendum Homer..he used it as a vote catcher never believing he would win the last Election. He thought he would have another Coalition with the Lib Dems who would block it..that’s how wrong he was …as you say..totally out of touch with the people.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I always found the odds good predictor of election results until the last GE. It was explained to me afterwards that people don’t like admitting to vote tory, so the polls are misleading, and i reckon that’s what happened this time as well. Just hope it’s not a premonition for Trump 2016.
Brexit is a disaster; I don’t think it was immigrants or refugees who caused the crash. “The British people are sick of listening to experts” says it all; we used to aspire to intelligence, we weren’t scared of it<p abp=”190″>Wanted to ask you knowledgeable guys on here a dilemma I want answered, now I have not really followed this debate and the outcome, how it will really effect us time will tell. but my question is
<p abp=”191″>My partner who is Russian obtained her Pharmacology masters in Russia, she came to UK three years ago (Not a paid bride guys lol), anyway she was unable to practice her profession due to the EU rules that she would have to re-sit exams here for three years, and that her masters was not recognised due to being obtained outside the EU.
<p abp=”192″>Now we have left the EU, not fully but as it finalises would she now be able to practice now we have become an independent Country. ?
<p abp=”193″>Thanks Guys
a) We haven’t left yet – it could take up to 2 years or more to negotiate getting out and until then EU rules apply.
b) The UK could bring in its own rules about foreigners needing to resit exams. For the pharmacology industry I’d be very surprised if they didn’t.
Fairly clear which way it was going once the Newcastle result came in and pretty much confirmed by Sunderland, thankfully got out of most of my bets.
Can’t believe so many people were taken in by lies.
Just hope the young aren’t hit if recession hits (or should that be “when”?).
The poor say “it couldn’t get any worse than it is already”…. Oh it can!
Some people must have been so disappointed, voting to return to the 1950’s/60’s on Thursday, only to wake up on Friday and find themselves still pensioners.
It seems turkeys really do vote for Christmas.
Value Is EverythingFairly clear which way it was going once the Newcastle result came in and pretty much confirmed by Sunderland, thankfully got out of most of my bets.
Can’t believe so many people were taken in by lies.
Just hope the young aren’t hit if recession hits (or should that be “when”?).
The poor say “it couldn’t get any worse than it is already”…. Oh it can!
Some people must have been so disappointed, voting to return to the 1950’s/60’s on Thursday, only to wake up on Friday and find themselves still pensioners.
It seems turkeys really do vote for Christmas.
Not only voted for Christmas but got told the next day they “misunderstood” that Vote Leave actually have no plans to reduce migration at all, just choose different migrants; the bus advert extra money for the NHS also was a “mistake” – there is no money; Vote Leave Boris in no hurry to leave EU and may not even start talks until 2020; “we want to be able to elect or kick out our own politicians – so Cameron kicks himself out after promising and elected to stay on to 2020; “get our democracy back” means an elitist Bullingdon Boy will likely be your next PM with the UK having absolutely no say. UK will be better off from day one- £ falls 30%.
The biggest con of the public in UK election history.
Trying to leave aside the politics would be ideal here in recommending laying BoJo to be next PM, though it’s difficult to do so in arguing the case for trying to make a profit from him.
He said last night he intends to pitch himself as the ‘unity candidate’…just when you thought it could not get any more bizarre.
The man is an arch manipulator (we’ll leave aside his history of lying and of homophobic and racist statements). A whole Parliament of orthopaedic surgeons would struggle to find an altruistic bone in his body. He is fifteen stones of solid ambition.
His column in The Telegraph today suggests that nothing at all negative will happen now; all the positive aspects of EU membership will be ours at no cost, it seems. Oh, and some of the £350m a week (which, by the way was actually £175m) could be used for the NHS.
He was the main architect of the chaos the country is now in. He has no plan and seemingly no intention of getting his hands dirty with work. He’d like somebody else to tidy everything up then hand him the job of PM.
How is this man favourite to run the country? I thought we’d seen enough madness over the weekend. Or is it me who’s going mad?
Jac
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