Nassau Stakes 2008

[MDeering]

Surely this is the premier F&M race on the calendar.

Peeping Fawn, Ouija Board, Alexander Goldrun, Russian Rhythm, Islington are all recent winners.

This is a very classy renewal yet again. And I hope Aidan O’Brien doesn’t pump Halfway To Heaven’s tyres because I want to back Lush Lashes until I am blue.

[batman]

Halfway to heaven for me Her guinneas win & 3rd to Zarkova at 4/1 is the value for me she also has a longer rest than the hard race Lush lashes had at Ascot imo.

[colinf]

I don’t think the track will suit Lush Lashes. She has a splayed action (to my amateur eye) and it didn’t look like she enjoyed running downhill at either Newmarket or Epsom.

[Ian]

I think Lush Lashes will win but her price 7/4 on Betfair is way too short to play at IMO given that there are three Group 1 winning fillies in opposition.

[tenbob]

my ratings for the race

146 lush lashes
141 heaven sent
135 halfway to heaven
134 passage of time
125 majestic roi
117 muthabara
116 classic remark
116 soft morning
108 cape amber
105 sugar mint

will back lush lashes to win

[thedarkknight]

Lush Lashes should be odds-on for this race imo.

[Anonymous]

I’ll second that TDK: she looks to have at least 7lb in hand of these.

[davidjohnson]

Halfway To Heaven has massive question marks against her stamina for me. She’s already out running her pedigree by proving effective at a mile considering she is the product of 2 King’s Stand winners. Lush Lashes looks in a different league to this lot.

[clivex]

Im amazed shes 13/8 in places. Are there any negatives that i have missed?

[guskennedy]

Im amazed shes 13/8 in places. Are there any negatives that i have missed?

The yard isn’t in great form.

[MDeering]

Then there is the obvious influence of one Aidan O’Brien. Plus the uncertainty about travelling down the Goodwood straight (didn’t travel at Epsom, but she should never have been tried at 1m4f).

What I like about Lush Lashes is she can pull away from fields without really leaving them flat-footed via a significant change of gear. She is robust and tough and always seems to find more when asked, like the Musidora and then the Coronation when Infallible looked a chance.

The price of Passage Of Time leaves me confused, really. Not even prepared to argue it. It’s just stupid.

I’ll take a small E-W ticket on Muthabara because she needs this chance to cover more ground, being a Red Ransom-Woodman. If her coat looks to standard, it’s a plus.

[Gingertipster]

The negatives for Lush Lashes have already been aired.
Trainers form and ability to act on an undulating course, if there is a lot of rain she would not like a soft surface, though doubt if it’ll be that bad. She is the class horse in the race though. These are my prices to 100%.

Lush Lashes 13/8, Heaven Sent 11/2, Passage Of Time 11/2, Muthabara 15/2, Halfway To Heaven 9/1, Cape Amber 33/1, Soft Morning 40/1, Majestic Roi 40/1, Sugar Mint 132/1, Classic Remark 800/1.

Think David is right, sire, dam and dam’s sire of Halfway To Heaven were all sprinters. This filly is only the price she is in the market because of who trains her and Aiden’s record in Group 1’s. Not her form, likleyhood of staying and chance of winning. The only way I can see her winning is if allowed to dictate a slow pace.

Mark

Value Is Everything

[Anonymous]

The price of Passage Of Time leaves me confused, really. Not even prepared to argue it. It’s just stupid.

Can’t really see why, MD?
She’s a genuine gp1 filly who had throat problems last season; has reportedly "turned the corner", and is expected to improve on her last run. Add to that the deficiencies of most of her rivals and she looks nailed on for a place at least, and at 13/2 and 1/4 the odds a place looks a safe bet for those who don’t want te be with the favourite.
All imo, of course.

[MDeering]

For breeding’s sake, the Group 1 is great. But reading between the lines, that particular Group 1 is never of the Group 1 standard. At least she did beat Soldier Of Fortune.

Maybe a little harsh, but she is about 11/1 in my books.

[Himself]

I think Halfway To Heaven is value at 9/2.

Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning

[davidjohnson]

What do you think about the trip for Halfay To Heaven?

Only serious negative I can find for Lush Lashes is that Birchy has made it 4-star nap material in the RP.

[thebrigadier]

Lush Lashes is the form pick but perhaps an ew on Muthabara may be more value. She is an interesting runner and is coming back from problems. Passage of Time looks the best of the older fillies.

[Author]

Posts