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Think about Fame And Glory is everything he has done to date is a bonus. For a horse that had the stamina to win over 1m2f in bottomless ground in France last year (from some useful sorts) it has been really encouraging to see him travel on decent ground over 10 furlongs this year with such ease and style. The horse is bred to relish every inch of 12 furlongs and is showing plenty of class in his races.
Whats more the money for him the last day on track was significant…they ploughed into him as if defeat was out of the question despite there being plenty of support and confidence behind the Oxx horse.
I have long fancied Freemantle since his two year old days, but I find it hard to see him beating Fame And Glory now.
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Hmmm wasn’t Black Bear Island backed early in the season because he was impressing on the gallops and in the gallops on the Curragh? Freemantle must have a huge chance at reversing the form given how the O’Brien horses are improving for the run.
Aidan
How many of AoB’s horses that "improved for the run" have been ridden as forcefully on their seasonal debut as Freemantle was at York? Certainly did not look a training run to me. Unusual too, for a horse that had never front run previously, to be given such an aggressive ride when stepped up >3f in distance.
I’d still maintain that Freemantle was the target for his better fancied stablemate in the Dante, and be amazed if the form was turned around at Epsom.Time and again in recent Derbys the horse with a bit of toe and a stamina doubt beats those sure to stay. I can see BBI having trouble holding a good position in the first half mile and meeting a lot of traffic- he’s going to need a charmed run like New Approach to win. Freemantle is a stamina doubt but has every chance of lasting home on decent ground. Furthermore he’ll surely be ridden prominently out of trouble and may have 5 or six lengths on BBI at the turn into the straight. The latter may turn out to be the stronger stayer but can he make up the leeway?
The clincher? Freemantle was (as of this morning) twice the price with the worst judges of what Glenn calls "The Trilaterals".Interesting CH. For me, what won BBI the Dante was speed, not stamina – he had the ability to quicken at the crucial point in the contest – it wasn’t like he was under pressure and then staying on through beaten horses as you might expect with a horse bred for further whose stamina has won the day,
If ridden more handily at Epsom, I think he could be the one that quickens and gets the others in trouble – I certainly agree with you that they would be foolish to try last-to-first tactics in the Derby.
Correct TDK.
I’m confident Black Bear Island will become a classy colt, but I’m sure Fame And Glory will outstay him.
It depends on what you’re looking for in a Derby winner.
Fascinating race and agree with the consensus that it’s hard to come to the conclusion that O’Brien and Murtagh know that Fame and Glory is ‘the one’. Personally I still think Golden Sword is underestimated and think with a similar ride around Epsom he’ll get first run on plenty.
If we’ve learnt anything this season it’s that if you can make a case for an O’Brien outsider, don’t be afraid of a big price. Anyone backing the stable outsiders this year would be well in front- for precisely the reasons given that APOB isn’t interested in finding out at home, only on the racecourse. If Michael Tabor needs to pay a professional gambler for tips to make his betting pay, that’ll tell you the value of inside information from Ballydoyle.
The two best fields of colts assembled this year have been in the 2000 Guineas and the Dante. And the derby winner has come from these two races for the last few years. Only Monitor Closely ran in both, and if you assume he reached the same level of form twice then for me that makes the Guineas the marginally better race. Obviously this is a very basic comparison and its clear that the trip in the Guineas was too short for Monitor Closely.
Therefore I would have Sea the Stars as marginally ahead of Black Bear Island.
I have been very impressed by Fame and Glory this year. As has been mentioned, he hasn’t beaten much but thats not really his fault. He is very much untested in comparison to Sea the Stars and Black Bear Island.
No Dante loser has ever won the derby so cant see Fremantle reversing form with Black Bear Island and I feel the Chester form this year has too many ifs and buts about it. Golden Sword, while impressive, will not be given as much "rope" which which to hang his rivals at epsom.
Guineas losers can come good at Epsom (Sir Percy and New Approach) so I cant discount Gan Amhras and Rip Van Winkle without thought. They are good colts but I see no reason why, having been beaten fair and square at Newmarket, they can turn the form on Sea the Stars.
So in short, Sea The Stars, Fame and Glory and Black Bear Island are my shortlist for derby. Free Agent would have to do something special today to alter that!
And I am sorry if I should really have posted this in the derby thread of big races. And I am sorry for anyone who finds this post too bleedin obvious that they feel the urge to make snide comments.
So you fancy the first and second favourites, with the third favourite the danger- fantastic insight, thanks.
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So you fancy the first and second favourites, with the third favourite the danger- fantastic insight, thanks.
lol sorry had to laugh
So you fancy the first and second favourites, with the third favourite the danger- fantastic insight, thanks.
Indeed. Welcome to the forum Zoe.
So you fancy the first and second favourites, with the third favourite the danger- fantastic insight, thanks.
To be honest I have no idea what the odds of these colts are. I dont bet ante post. If they are the 3 favs then I apologise. The bookies, in my opinion, have the race sussed.
Sorry I dared to air my opinion, I thought thats what this site was about but Carvillshill – your response is out of order.
I personnally think Gan Amhras has huge chance of reversing form with Sea The Stars over 1m4f.
When a superstar like Dylan Thomas can go off at 25/1 for the Derby a couple of seasons back
Dylan Thomas was no superstar when he ran in the Derby! thats why he was 25/1, He certainly turned into one as a 4yo though!
If ever a horse was "Good looking enough to win the Arc" its Black Bear island, i can already see him cutting through the field with that "Menacing"
look of his! Oh yes where"s the phone!So you fancy the first and second favourites, with the third favourite the danger- fantastic insight, thanks.
To be honest I have no idea what the odds of these colts are. I dont bet ante post. If they are the 3 favs then I apologise. The bookies, in my opinion, have the race sussed.
Sorry I dared to air my opinion, I thought thats what this site was about but Carvillshill – your response is out of order.
Oh for the love of god, grow a backbone will you?
How can this already be described as a strong derby, best for years etc, when th leading contenders
Could well be a mix of so so animals from a relatively bunchefd dante finish, a guineas winner that may well not stay and a classy looking two year old who may not have trained on. Oh and a favourite whos somewhat untested. Bit early for conclusions i thinlk
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