Long time lurker here. Will post one or two picks a day – some shorties, some bigger prices. As with all gambling there are two key factors – value and discipline. My bets in the past have lacked both these things, but over the past year or so, I’ve been doing pretty steadily.
My race of choice tomorrow is the 3.20 Folkestone.
A pretty weak race; piss poor actually, but that hasn’t put me off.
Just Josie – 5/6 with Paddy Power as we speak – looks to have this sown up and I wouldn’t lay him.
His form is pretty solid. C+D and I would imagine he could only get better based on his last performance. The horse he beat in a tough finish last time, Spot the Ball, has a first and second in his last two races since.
However, 9 pounds is a fair hike for that win and I would actually suggest that at 95, the handicapper pretty much has Just Josie where he wants him. In this crap a race, that doesn’t stop him from winning, but it does make him susceptible to an up-and-comer. Odds-on doesn’t represent value and I would only back him if he drifted to around 6/4+
Well for me, the only other horse in the race is Portrait Royale. His form is as sketchy as Picasso’s art work, but, at a two year in the weights, could pull a surprise.
He simply loves it around here and is also a C+D winner. Indeed, he’s won of 8 pounds higher over C+D. His Folkestone form reads 133 whilst other form is a somewhat less impressive 445PU.
He has no problem with the ground, and the horses who beat him in his last two races here have gone on to better things. Based on his Folkestone performances, I would place him at a mark of around 95.
At 13/2 (Paddy Power), he looks like some tasty value and I’ll be sticking on a wee each-way punt tomorrow. I would say that anything above 7/2 is solid value.