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Now that the Flat is well under way, it’s time to introduce one of my favoured systems which I have followed with some success over the last 5-6 years.
Rules
Only look at (Flat) Handicap races on the turf.
There must be at least 12 runners.To be a selection a horse must have…
> won it’s last race (same season)
> won previously over Course and/or Distance – look for "C", "D" or "CD" after the horse’s name.
> ran 9-18 days ago (inclusive).There are no handicap races that have 12 or more runners today at Beverley but there are a few at York tomorrow so I will post any selections that are amnogst them.
If you were to include Ireland, you’ve got four in the 7:55 at Killarney: Jackemil, Apache Gold, Trans City and Truly Delightful.
If you were to include Ireland, you’ve got four in the 7:55 at Killarney: Jackemil, Apache Gold, Trans City and Truly Delightful.
I’ve never really followed the Irish racing, shame I suppose as Truly Delighful won at 9/1.
There are a few to start off with tomorrow, let’s hope the list contains a winner or two…
York 1:45 Maven
York 2:15 Fast Shot
*York 3:50 Rogue Wave, Inyordreams + Tea Leaf*
Chep 7:25 Catalinas Diamond
*Chep 8:25 Captain Sharpe + Lac Sacre**Personally, if there is more than 1 selection in a race then I usually take the one carrying the highest weight if the going is Good or firmer and the lowest weight if Good to Soft or softer.
The reason why I did not put up Slemy in the 3:50 at York is because the win was on the all weather and I have only recorded turf wins previously.
York 1:45 Maven
York 2:15 Fast Shot*Personally, if there is more than 1 selection in a race then I usually take the one carrying the highest weight if the going is Good or firmer and the lowest weight if Good to Soft or softer.
I’m guessing Maven should have also had an asterisk, as Ansaab also qualifies as it ran 18 days ago at Donny and won over 10f at Curragh 22-Apr-12, but is 8st8 as opposed to Maven’s 8st3 ?
Also, why Fast Shot and not Yeeoow, which ran ten days ago, carries less weight and won at 6f at Ascot 10-May-13 ?
(sorry, I’m not being obtuse, I’m genuinely interested in systems and I’m just trying to understand your selection)
I was a bit puzzled at first but then I realised what has happened. In the selection process, you should only look at horses than won last time out, then check to see if it is a C, D or CD winner.
My apologies, as this must have caused a lot of confusion. To list the selection process again…
Only look at (Flat) Handicap races on the turf.
There must be at least 12 runners.>Look for all horses that won last time out.<
To be a selection a horse must have won previously over Course and/or Distance – look for "C", "D" or "CD" after the horse’s name.
Only back selections that ran 9-18 days ago (inclusive).
Wednesday’s results…
York 1:45 Maven – unplaced
York 2:15 Fast Shot –York 3:50 Rogue Wave – unplaced
York 3:50 Inyordreams –York 3:50 Tea Leaf – unplaced
Chep 7:25 Catalinas Diamond –Chep 8:25 Captain Sharpe – unplaced
Chep 8:25 Lac Sacre –
Because this system is based around handicaps with big fields the P&L figures will be based on the following stakes – 2 point win and 1 point each way. The figures will be kept seperate so that we can see how each type of bet does.Win bets =
E/W bets = +1.73pts
Thursday’s runners…
York 1:45 Pandar
York 3:15 Fort Bastion
Newm 5:55 Eco Warrior
Newm 7:00 Flemish School
Newm 7:00 One PursuitI was a bit puzzled at first but then I realised what has happened. In the selection process, you should only look at horses than won last time out, then check to see if it is a C, D or CD winner.
My apologies, as this must have caused a lot of confusion. To list the selection process again…
Thanks, I follow you now
Thursday’s results…
York 1:45 Pandar – unplaced
York 3:15 Fort Bastion –Newm 5:55 Eco Warrior – unplaced
Newm 7:00 Flemish School – unplaced
Newm 7:00 One Pursuit – unplacedWin bets =
E/W bets = -5.67
pts
I’m sure I put these selections up last night, oh well, never mind.
Friday’s runners…
York 2:15 Itlaaq
York 3:50 Scarborough
Hamil 8:40 Hab Reeh
Hamil 8:40 Busy BimboFriday’s results…
York 2:15 Itlaaq –
York 3:50 Scarborough –
Hamil 8:40 Hab Reeh –
Hamil 8:40 Busy Bimbo – unplaced
Win bets =
E/W bets = -2.02
pts
Saturday’s selections…
Thir 3:25 Lastchancelucas
Thir 3:25 Keep It Dark
Newm 3:30 Nova Champ
Thir 4:00 Celtic Sixpence
Donc 8:05 Run With prideSaturday’s results…
Thir 3:25 Lastchancelucas – unplaced
Thir 3:25 Keep It Dark – unplaced
Newm 3:30 Nova Champ – unplaced
Thir 4:00 Celtic Sixpence – unplaced
Donc 8:05 Run With pride – non runnerWin
E/W
Overall
21 selections
0 winners
8 placed 38.1%
– – – – – – –
Previous Course winners
9 selections
0 winners
3 placed 33.3%
– – – – – – –
Previous Course & Distance winners
6 selections
0 winners
2 placed 33.3%
– – – – – – –
Previously won on same going
14 selections
0 winners
5 placed 35.7%
– – – – – – –
Previously won with same jockey
18 selections
0 winners
7 placed 38.9%
– – – – – – –Not
in the top 6 weights
18 selections
0 winners
8 placed 53.3%
– – – – – – –
Bottom half of the handicap (based on weight carried)
13 selections
0 winners
9 placed 53.8%
– – – – – – –Not looking too good
Trendyrich
or is this normal for the time of the season?
Billy's Outback Shack
It’s possibly a bit early still, I tend to think that horses running in handicaps take 2 or 3 runs to get themselves into the groove. It is encouraging that some decent priced horses have hit the frame and each way backers would be enjoying this more than those who bet win only.
The thing about systems is that you need to view the selections for a while and get comfortable with it or decide that it’s not right for you (generically speaking). There was a 28/1 winner with Orwellian on Friday in the Hustlers and there was also another winner at 7/1. It would be nice to start shouting "231/1 double, what a great system!!" However as far as I can recall (too tired to go and check as I write this) that’s the first time there has been 2 winners on the same day for that system. The reason I post the selections is not to prove that this is a sure fire method to make money but to let people know what sort of selection process can be useful from time to time. It may be that someone out there tends to stick with the sprints i.e. 5f-7f races and they have been showing better/worst figures than the milers and longer.
I have found over the years that it is good to see things like this as it gets you thinking about selecting horses, how other people go about making theirs etc. I suppose one way to put it is to start off thought processes. For example, I decided one day to record the figures for a horse’s last run and that’s when i noticed that the 9-18 day range was by far more successful than any other range – I boxed them into 10 day ranges and then analyse the results. On the flip side, it kinda makes sense that a horse running again around 2 weeks after a win would probably be the best time to run him/her again, a). because he/she’s still fit b). to give the horse time to recover from the last race’s efforts. I follow a similar system on the jumps and with that the range is a little later, i.e. around 3-4 weeks between runs shows the best figures.
I’m sure the winner will come soon, I think there are enough hitting the frame to keep the faith.
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