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TAPK
Do we really need to have another decent discussion sullied by your morbid attention-seeking?
Ffs, give it a rest!I do apologise reet! I"m just making a stand on this one as i haven"t seen such an over rated Dewhurst winner since Xaar!
Love the sums Pru
One Way or Another I had to look up as I hadn’t heard of until now.
As far as I can make out the BHA in their widom hit him with a rating of 92 for finishing 3 lengths 2nd to MJ’s Dubai’s Touch who ran some good races in his time. However when he beat OWOA was beaten out of sight in way too many races either side of that to suggest he was anything like his old self.
Te horse he beat in his previous race Charlie Tipple did nothing to boost his form the did drop him 2lbs for that but 92 doesn’t look justified.
As far as I can make out he’s been dropped down to 86 which he managed to beat a bad horse off. Then enter Aldermoor who beat him a head getting WFO age which he would no longer be entitled to. He not too long ago ran Tagseed to a neck getting only 2lbs and OWOA ran K Kingdom very close getting 9lbs.
Both Aldermoor and OWOA have been dropped 8lbs since there day out together
I’d say OWOA could win of his current mark but he needs to be dropped about 2lbs and I’d drop Aldermoor 4lbs before they would carry my money as both their marks seem a tad high….. unless they can find another Charlie Tipple to beat.
Seville:
First race runs 2nd to Dubai Prince hasn’t been seen since.. 3rd horse has won but nothing to write home about.
Fairly impressive on his 2nd outing winning a 4 horse race. The 2nds form isn’t up to Group 1 standard and although he was always held when young Joseph gave Seville a crack he failed to put any extra distance between him and the second. The distance did increase but oly because the jockey on the 2nd eased of when beaten.
I didn’t like the way he carries his head or the way he was eyebaling his jockey. They say he’s a bit special but he didn’t convince me.
The 3rd in that race ran well in a decent race yesterday beaten 3 lengths by a horse rated 87 but that doesn’t exactly give him a boost having beaten Triple Eight (98)
He’s probably worth the 5 1/2 lengths he beat Triple Eight and could improve.
How do you rate a hyped AOB horse give him the 104 or 105 he deserves or do factor into AOB’s reputation of bringing out massive improvement in them when the big day comes?
If you are asking if I think he’ll win the Racing Post Trophy my answer is no.
Well, I did ask…
Well, I did ask…
Dont pretend you didn"t know what was coming Pru!
Fist spent nearly 2 hours writing that for you! 
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[deleted]
Regarding the ratings, to be fair to the BHA they can only go by what evidence they have on the day and the level of horses within a certain field and if that means they can only rate Frankel 124 then so be it – you can hardly hold a grudge against them.
A lot of us or even the general Racing fan would know that Frankel is probably or should I say certiantly a better 2 year old than the rating suggests but again you can’t factor that opinion in.
Time will tell but its the best Dewhurst rating I’ve given but lets not forget he done it hands n heels and has never really been in a race this year despite cantering over everything he’s faced – you’d be a brave man betting against this not being a 3 year old given the easy time it’s had.
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I cant wait for next spring! RP website reports "and frankel seems very laboured in his work,perhaps he was just a great 2yo"
You heard it here first!
While I do rate Frankel very highly and it would be great if he turned out to be extraordinary do you honestly think I give a hoot from a punting point of view, which comes first and foremost, if he finishes stone last in the Guineas.
While you were busy telling me and everyone else what Dream Ahead was going to do to him in the Dewhurst I was online and on the phone backing Frankel for every penny I could afford to lose.
I’ve backed Wootton Basett for the Guineas because if any horse can beat Frankel it’s him IMO and he’s a better price to be placed than Frankel is to win.
I see Paul Hanagan says he’s past the post already which is nice to know.
As far as Pru’s answer goes it took me about 20 minutes longer than what it normally takes as I rarely get as involved in the tpe of races those horses run in. 19 runner handicaps on the flat are strictly for the birds and one look is enough for me to say……don’t
The first sign of madness is studying them and the second sign is bettting in them IMO.
Well Fist irespect your view on handicaps but do not agree i specialize in them and find them an exellent betting medium as far as the first sign of madness is concerned some people might think we area all mad to be on a horse racing forum.
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I got twice as much respect for you mate if you can make it pay. I know I couldn’t.
I was on the ball in the toughest handicap of all the Grand National and was adamant Don’t Push It would win months before the race. It was nothing to do with handicapping though, I put 2 and 2 together and knew exactly what Jonjo had in mind for the horse the day he ran him in the Servo Trophy at Cheltenham over 3m3f after two visits to Aintree to get him used to the place.
Being JP’s I knew nothing for sure and no one excpet him and jonjo ever do but when I saw AP saying he wasn’t sure which horse he was going to ride I knew here it comes JP is going to gamble this off the boards so I got in again before he didSo for me betting in handicaps is not about sums and ratings it’s about knowing trainers and how they think.
The most obvious one is Sir Mark Prescott who without breaking rules wins race after race with horses that have ratings not worth the paper their written on.
Ferdy is a genuis at it it and if you took anything he runs at Chetenham you’d never find the winner.
I do a fair bit of place betting on both exchanges and find it easy to make a few quid but I take one glance at those handicaps with 14 runners going 5 the filed and I wouldn’t have 2 brass pennies on. With good horses perhaps but midweek races on the all weather I’d be flat broke in before you could say told you so.
As I say I admire you and anyone else who has the time and patience to work these races out but give me a decent hurdle race or even a maiden with only 3 triers in it any day of the week. The way I look at it I can either have 500 quid at 1.8 for a place in one of them or or take a massive risk and put 100 quid on a 4/1 shot in a daft handicap at Southwell where day in day out horses run ar$e for elbow….me think me stick with small drum better
Incidentally our man was interveiwed the other day and asked how he saw the season going. In joking manner he said I guess we’ll just have to win the national again which got a right few laughs…..trust me when he makes a joke of things with that lovely smile of his, his mind is ticking over at a million minds an hour and most of the time he’s deadly serious, but is very good at making others think he’s not.
After hearing it I couldn’t even remember what weight he had last hear I thought it was 10st 11lbs or near to it so I had a look..If I can refer to handicapping for a second after carrying 11 stone 5lbs this year the weight rise wont stop him even altough he will carry top weight as Denman wont run or so I have heard. He’s a great beleiver in the lack of weight doen’t make a bad horse go faster so you can bet your boots he’ll be all out to do the double and you can completely ignore anything he does between now and then…..like run him in the Pertempts Hurdle:shock: what a cracker that was.
Sorry about the rant which is totally off subject
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Another thread ruined by TAPK.
Regarding the ratings, to be fair to the BHA they can only go by what evidence they have on the day and the level of horses within a certain field and if that means they can only rate Frankel 124 then so be it – you can hardly hold a grudge against them.
A lot of us or even the general Racing fan would know that Frankel is probably or should I say certiantly a better 2 year old than the rating suggests but again you can’t factor that opinion in.
Time will tell but its the best Dewhurst rating I’ve given but lets not forget he done it hands n heels and has never really been in a race this year despite cantering over everything he’s faced – you’d be a brave man betting against this not being a 3 year old given the easy time it’s had.
I’m sorry MR W but I fail to understand you when you state they can’t then state "you can’t factor that opinion in"
Dream Ahead was beaten 7 lengths which in a race like that is like being beaten 30 lenths in the Arkle.
If they haven’t taken their opinion into acccount that the horse had an of day then what they hell are they doing?
Ratings are all about opinions and the only reason they don’t slash Dream Ahead is because they got it wrong in the first place IMO and can’t drop everything that ran 10 lbs and they can’t raise Frankel to 10lbs unless they want laughed off the planet.
These things when they happen are never easy to deal with and it’s just one of those things but your very naive if you think they can’t bring opinion into ratings when it suits them or they feel it’s the best way round a sticky situation
In joking manner he said I guess we’ll just have to win the national again which got a right few laughs…..
I hope you told the great man that
Albertas Run
even with top weight would love to skip round the National fences on Good ground mind!
Fist we agree about something many of my selections are based on trying to get into the minds of trainers and connections etc as much as weights carried form etc but its a guessing game whatever way you look at it, but still love it after 30 years,sorry to drift off subject.
Below is how Timeform rated each horse (before the Dewhurst) with their Dewhurst finishing positions and distances. How can this be rated (by others) as an exceptional Dewhurst? With just 2 1/4 lengths back to a 100 rated, total of 5 lengths back to a 111 rated, and (total of) just over 5 back to a 107 rated.
Granted some (especially the second) must have improved. But did all three 25/1, 33/1 and 50/1 shots show significant improvement?Frankel 129p
2 1/4 lengths
Roderic 100
2 3/4 lengths
Glor 111
Head
Waiters Dream 107
1 3/4 lengths
Dream Ahead 130
10 lengths
Saamidd 117pUnless it was run in a "wonder time", it must surely be rated around either Glor or Waiter’s or somewhere between the two?
With both Dream Ahead and Saamidd running so far below form I can’t see any justification in lowering either horse significantly. Although the latter could arguabley get a squiggle or note to consider a squiggle next time out.
Value Is EverythingWith just 2 1/4 lengths back to a 111 rated, total of 5 lengths back to a 111 rated, and (total of) just over 5 back to a 107 rated.
2¼ lengths back to a 100-rated.
Nonetheless, that is of questionable importance. Roderic O’Connor’s ability is surely defined by what he did in finishing second in the Dewhurst rather than by what he had done before.
As mentioned earlier, the BHA, one of the last bastions of the outmoded "yardstick" handicapping method, had the following to say:
"…the form of the placed horses makes it impossible to give Frankel an exceptional rating yet…having talked it over with the Irish Senior Handicapper, Garry O’Gorman, we have agreed to raise the ratings of all the placed horses…"
Confused? I am.
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Ginger
Judging the Dewhurst on a one-paced plodder like Glor Na Mara (the type that rarely win, but always finish close-up, whatever the class) is just about as daft as evaluating the Arc on the form of La Boum!- Total Posts 17716
I just had a look at the updted Timeform figure and they look much more realistic concerning the top 2 to me.
Frankel 130P
Dream Ahead 128
Always going to get a couple of pound between different opinions.
That of course is where the P comes in which stands for p!ssed all over the top of them which is worth about 7lbs
J/k aside nice job!!!
Dream Ahead was beaten 7 lengths which in a race like that is like being beaten 30 lenths in the Arkle.
Does that mean that his Middle Park was the equivalent of winning the Arkle by a distance?
Those timeform figs have a common-sense look about them but may, IMO be a couple of pounds high, not sure how they shake down when you start bringing all the confusing and conflicting collateral form-lines into the equation.
I suspect, with hindsight (which, of course, we have the benefit of when reviewing performances in the light of future events) Dream Ahead’s Middle Park may have been over-rated (Mr W made a point relating to the winning distances that day – unusually large throughout the day – and large margin, soft ground wins are notoriously difficult to rate are they not?)
The Irish form may be a opound or two low too. I think Pathfork may be a little closer to Frankel than the bare ratings may indicate.
Fist spent nearly 2 hours writing that for you! 
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