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The BHA has rated Frankel 124 after Saturday, their reasons given in the link at the bottom.
Meanwhile, it has Dream Ahead on 126 (down from 128).
One thing is that it can be established that the BHA is using approximately 12 lb/sec for 7f run in 85.73 sec.
((124-113)*5.5)/5.1 = 11.86
"…the form of the placed horses makes it impossible to give Frankel an exceptional rating yet…"
"…we have agreed to raise the ratings of all the placed horses…."
So they still don’t know what they’re doing in your opinion?
Yep, having just looked over the 3lb drop April Fool received for running to a mark below zero, I agree.
Ricky, fair question, would you want a strictly form-based rating or one which takes sectional analysis into account?
The latter was dealt with here
http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing … 90910.html
If forced to be constrained by the precise results of his races, rather than how those results came to pass, I would probably rate him 126.
Meanwhile, it has Dream Ahead on 126 (down from 128).
Well you can get a 3lb drop for being beat 44l at Wolverhampton.
I honestly can’t get my head around why Dream Ahead has been dropped 2lb. Fairly similar to Workforce being dropped after the Derby imo.
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Personally I wouldn’t move any of them apart from Dream Ahead who ran well enough to get into a challenging position but appeared to take so much doing so it gutted him. It’s a lot harder to make excuses for Dream Ahead than it is for Saamidd.
I wouldn’t drop him a drastic amount because he’s probably suffered more than any other horse in the race due to his style of running. When horses like him hit their limit they tend to weaken very quickly and end up out the back door. Run them 2 weeks later without a Frankel in the race to try and pass at a crucial point in the race and they’ll bounce straight back to form.
As far as Frankel goes it seems a bit odd he’s gone from winning a very moderate Group 2 to a decent Group 1 but people think he shouldn’t go up a bit.
As far as I’m concerned the race Dream Ahead won due to everything being in his favour against the was pretty ordinary opposition in comparison, never meritted such a high rating in the first place. I did read it is being re-assessed by someone and dropped 2lbs…….maybe Timeform I’m not sure.
To contunue to rate DA higher than Frankel or even the same is beyond me. The fact he is now 16/1 for the guineas 16 times the price of Frankel it would appear not many people think I’m wrong. If they did they woud be queing up to grab the price but he continues to drift.
I do realise that ratings aren’t just handed out to horses who get a mile and Dream Ahead could still be and probably will be a force to be reckoned with at shorter distances but he’s simply not in Frankel’s league if we are talking 7f and beyond.
My personal ratings no one will agree with as there more to do with the way I see things rather than tied strictly to a form book and taking into consideration a couple I think have been flattered in races
130 Frankel
126+ Wooton Bassett
126 Dream Ahead
121P+P Saamidd
120p Pathfork
119 Casamento
117 Drumboyne Express
117p Master of Hounds
117 Roderic O’connerThe fact he is now 16/1 for the guineas 16 times the price of Frankel…
100/(1+1) = 50.00
100/(16+1) = 5.8850.00/5.88 = 8.5 times
What is your rating for Seville please, Fist? And what is your rating for One Way Or Another? I would like to know whether he is well handicapped or not.
TIA
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Frankel clearly stayed Ascot’s stiff 1m very well, so to drop back a furlong in trip and still have his race won 2 out against better horses speaks more of his class than any rating would measure. The idea (not necessarily aired on this thread) that he has regressed since Ascot I find totally absurd.
Fwiw, Roderic O’Connor’s future almost certainly lies over middle-distances, so it’s unsurprising he’s improved markedly for the much faster pace (and that he had to maintain it longer) than he set at the Curragh.My personal ratings no one will agree with as there more to do with the way I see things and i cant see past my nose!
130 Frankel
You"re damn right there! By your own admission on this very forum you said you left ratings to others! Now you are Fil Smiff!
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Love the sums Pru
One Way or Another I had to look up as I hadn’t heard of until now.
As far as I can make out the BHA in their widom hit him with a rating of 92 for finishing 3 lengths 2nd to MJ’s Dubai’s Touch who ran some good races in his time. However when he beat OWOA was beaten out of sight in way too many races either side of that to suggest he was anything like his old self.
Te horse he beat in his previous race Charlie Tipple did nothing to boost his form the did drop him 2lbs for that but 92 doesn’t look justified.
As far as I can make out he’s been dropped down to 86 which he managed to beat a bad horse off. Then enter Aldermoor who beat him a head getting WFO age which he would no longer be entitled to. He not too long ago ran Tagseed to a neck getting only 2lbs and OWOA ran K Kingdom very close getting 9lbs.
Both Aldermoor and OWOA have been dropped 8lbs since there day out together
I’d say OWOA could win of his current mark but he needs to be dropped about 2lbs and I’d drop Aldermoor 4lbs before they would carry my money as both their marks seem a tad high….. unless they can find another Charlie Tipple to beat.
Seville:
First race runs 2nd to Dubai Prince hasn’t been seen since.. 3rd horse has won but nothing to write home about.
Fairly impressive on his 2nd outing winning a 4 horse race. The 2nds form isn’t up to Group 1 standard and although he was always held when young Joseph gave Seville a crack he failed to put any extra distance between him and the second. The distance did increase but oly because the jockey on the 2nd eased of when beaten.
I didn’t like the way he carries his head or the way he was eyebaling his jockey. They say he’s a bit special but he didn’t convince me.
The 3rd in that race ran well in a decent race yesterday beaten 3 lengths by a horse rated 87 but that doesn’t exactly give him a boost having beaten Triple Eight (98)
He’s probably worth the 5 1/2 lengths he beat Triple Eight and could improve.
How do you rate a hyped AOB horse give him the 104 or 105 he deserves or do factor into AOB’s reputation of bringing out massive improvement in them when the big day comes?
If you are asking if I think he’ll win the Racing Post Trophy my answer is no.
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My personal ratings no one will agree with as there more to do with the way I see things and i cant see past my nose!
130 Frankel
I hate to admit it but everything you say makes sense and make me look like an amatuer
and don’t doctor my post again you swine!!!!!!!!Pru , thanks very much , you could well be right , worryingly I agree with Fist …..130 for me and its a gut feel
However I have a feeling that this guy will do a Zafonic and blow them all away in the 2000 .
cheers
Ricky
Well at least the Official handicapper hasn"t fallen for all the Bulls*it surrounding "Frankel the wonder horse", some on here think he"s the best thing since sliced bread and yet he isn"t even the top rated 2yo! talk about lemmings jumping off the cliff with Fist the Pied Piper leading them! I hope you all land softly as racing needs the Gullible!
My personal ratings no one will agree with as there more to do with the way I see things and i cant see past my nose!
130 Frankel
I hate to admit it but everything you say makes sense and make me look like an amatuer
and don’t doctor my post again you swine!!!!!!!!I cant wait for next spring! RP website reports "and frankel seems very laboured in his work,perhaps he was just a great 2yo"
You heard it here first!
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TAPK
Do we really need to have another decent discussion sullied by your morbid attention-seeking?
Ffs, give it a rest!
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