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‘Value’ by definition is backing horses at bigger prices than their chance of winning warrants. Even if you are backing the jockey with the nicest silks, if you are making a profit you are getting value, you have to be. If you are making a loss, you’re not.
How and why you get to that point (or not) is all personal choice.
That really is the extent of the debate.
Mike
Yes technically true Mike, but there are things a punter should know to make it easier for him/her to show a profit. In reality, if a punter has made money by backing the "jockey with the nicest silks" – it is luck. There is no logical explanation. If continuing with the "nicest silks" system he/she will eventually lose money because luck will eventually run out.
I’d prefer to take luck out of the equation?
By knowing the "maths" punters know what they are up against, so far more likely to find a profitable method of "investing".
Value Is EverythingYES, I did believe 5-0 had an 11% (8/1) and 6-0 9% (10/1) chance of occurring.
5-0 was 10/1 and 6-0 was 20/1.
I deliberately used prices for 5-0 and 6-0 that I would not have considered value Nathan, to illustrate that 6/1 4-0 may have been better value.
At 10/1, was it actually a better than 9% chance of 5-0?
At 20/1, was it actually a better than 5% chance of 6-0?I’d say a 4-0 result had more than a 5% better chance of coming up than a 5-0 result yesterday (6/1 = 14% and 10/1 9%, 14 – 9 = 5 (or 14.3 – 9.1 = 5.2 if more exact), and I’d also say 4-0 had a better than 9% better chance than 6-0. So if you excuse the aftertiming Nathan, I’d have said 6/1 was the better value. And one result means nothing in the scheme of things when looking at achieving value for over all profit.
You study all the Football teams, players and results and form aswell now do you Mark? 4-0 had a better chance of coming up as it was the shorter odds but no way in my world was it the value pick, 5% more chance than 5-0? do you know exactly how many seconds it takes to score a goal? If my 2 picks were not the value than Gordon Bryon Wilson is not the legendary laying King of horse, woman and beast.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I’d prefer to take luck out of the equation?
You’ll wish you edited that bit out when I’ve finished with you!!
First rule of Gambling…….You need Luck,it doesn’t matter what form of gambling you still need luck.As far as Horseracing goes you need plenty of Luck,your good Luck is someone elses Bad luck when backing a winner.Every race won in the History of racing has had elements of both good and bad luck and your Grand National winner ‘Neptune Collonges’ victory was more luck than judgement not only in the fact he got the verdict on the nod of a head but the fact he even made it to the racecourse,never mind jump 30 fences en-route!
No I’m afraid that one throw away line exposes your arrogance and complete obsession with numbers for you to think that Luck isn’t a huge part of the equation.You backedBoston Bob
in the RSA and was robbed of certain victory,I was robbed even more as I had the sense to back him e/w but Bad luck rained down on us.I was lucky ‘Toronado’ didn’t perform in the 2000gns but at least I have the sense to realise how lucky I was,you need to appreciate the word Luck a bit more and be grateful when she’s on your side and yes I do feel sorry that you had bad luck being born with Ginger hair because I’m a philanthropissed!
You study all the Football teams, players and results and form aswell now do you Mark? 4-0 had a better chance of coming up as it was the shorter odds but no way in my world was it the value pick, 5% more chance than 5-0? do you know exactly how many seconds it takes to score a goal? If my 2 picks were not the value than Gordon Bryon Wilson is not the legendary laying King of horse, woman and beast.
Winding you up Nathan. Just as you often do me.
Of course I have not got a clue about football.
My posts just pointing out bigger odds does not necessarily mean better value.Value Is EverythingYES, I did believe 5-0 had an 11% (8/1) and 6-0 9% (10/1) chance of occurring.
5-0 was 10/1 and 6-0 was 20/1.
I deliberately used prices for 5-0 and 6-0 that I would not have considered value Nathan, to illustrate that 6/1 4-0 may have been better value.
At 10/1, was it actually a better than 9% chance of 5-0?
At 20/1, was it actually a better than 5% chance of 6-0?I’d say a 4-0 result had more than a 5% better chance of coming up than a 5-0 result yesterday (6/1 = 14% and 10/1 9%, 14 – 9 = 5 (or 14.3 – 9.1 = 5.2 if more exact), and I’d also say 4-0 had a better than 9% better chance than 6-0. So if you excuse the aftertiming Nathan, I’d have said 6/1 was the better value. And one result means nothing in the scheme of things when looking at achieving value for over all profit.
You study all the Football teams, players and results and form aswell now do you Mark? 4-0 had a better chance of coming up as it was the shorter odds but no way in my world was it the value pick, 5% more chance than 5-0? do you know exactly how many seconds it takes to score a goal? If my 2 picks were not the value than Gordon Bryon Wilson is not the legendary laying King of horse, woman and beast.
I’m afraid Nath that Gingers got an opinion on everything absolutely everything,he’s the sort who will argue Black is White and White is Ginger just to be argumentative,others on here are very good at tolerating his drivel about ‘Value’ and ‘Percentages’ but I just tell the T*at to shut the **** up! That was a Class post about laying ‘Lethal Force’ though if I do say so myself.Can you imagine Ginge Laying anything????????
Winding you up Nathan. Just as you often do me.
I phoned Gord up about 5 hours ago saying you were a wind up merchant.
Also said you would have backed Australia for the derby by now. 1 out of 2 aint bad.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I’d prefer to take luck out of the equation?
You’ll wish you edited that bit out when I’ve finished with you!!
First rule of Gambling…….You need Luck,it doesn’t matter what form of gambling you still need luck.As far as Horseracing goes you need plenty of Luck,your good Luck is someone elses Bad luck when backing a winner.Every race won in the History of racing has had elements of both good and bad luck and your Grand National winner ‘Neptune Collonges’ victory was more luck than judgement not only in the fact he got the verdict on the nod of a head but the fact he even made it to the racecourse,never mind jump 30 fences en-route!
No I’m afraid that one throw away line exposes your arrogance and complete obsession with numbers for you to think that Luck isn’t a huge part of the equation.You backedBoston Bob
in the RSA and was robbed of certain victory,I was robbed even more as I had the sense to back him e/w but Bad luck rained down on us.I was lucky ‘Toronado’ didn’t perform in the 2000gns but at least I have the sense to realise how lucky I was,you need to appreciate the word Luck a bit more and be grateful when she’s on your side and yes I do feel sorry that you had bad luck being born with Ginger hair because I’m a philanthropissed!
Don’t be daft Gordie Boy. There is a big difference between "luck" in any particular race and "luck" in showing an
over all
profit. Any particular race can obviously have luck or bad luck, but over all (if the punter has enough bets) luck equals out… Unless of course he/she has such a lack of confidence in their own ability as a punter, so actually wanting to rely on luck for profit. Where any profit relies on just one or two massive bets (compared to his/her usual sized bets)
. Or has one lucky mega win with the miracle (multiple) bet coming up (a la Gladys Haddock).What is the point in anyone studying form if luck is such a big factor?
As for my "arrogance". It is not me who calls himself "The Ante-Post King", who often displays supposed massive over-confidence in his bets. But every successful punter has a bit of arrogance/confidence otherwise they wouldn’t be able to keep looking at races in the correct (profitable) way.
Value Is EverythingI’d prefer to take luck out of the equation?
You’ll wish you edited that bit out when I’ve finished with you!!
First rule of Gambling…….You need Luck,it doesn’t matter what form of gambling you still need luck.As far as Horseracing goes you need plenty of Luck,your good Luck is someone elses Bad luck when backing a winner.Every race won in the History of racing has had elements of both good and bad luck and your Grand National winner ‘Neptune Collonges’ victory was more luck than judgement not only in the fact he got the verdict on the nod of a head but the fact he even made it to the racecourse,never mind jump 30 fences en-route!
No I’m afraid that one throw away line exposes your arrogance and complete obsession with numbers for you to think that Luck isn’t a huge part of the equation.You backedBoston Bob
in the RSA and was robbed of certain victory,I was robbed even more as I had the sense to back him e/w but Bad luck rained down on us.I was lucky ‘Toronado’ didn’t perform in the 2000gns but at least I have the sense to realise how lucky I was,you need to appreciate the word Luck a bit more and be grateful when she’s on your side and yes I do feel sorry that you had bad luck being born with Ginger hair because I’m a philanthropissed!
Don’t be daft Gordie Boy. There is a big difference between "luck" in any particular race and "luck" in showing an
over all
profit. Any particular race can obviously have luck or bad luck, but over all (if the punter has enough bets) luck equals out… Unless of course he/she has such a lack of confidence in their own ability as a punter, so actually wanting to rely on luck for profit. Where any profit relies on just one or two massive bets (compared to his/her usual sized bets)
. Or has one lucky mega win with the miracle (multiple) bet coming up (a la Gladys Haddock).What is the point in anyone studying form if luck is such a big factor?
As for my "arrogance". It is not me who calls himself "The Ante-Post King", who often displays supposed massive over-confidence in his bets. But every successful punter has a bit of arrogance/confidence otherwise they wouldn’t be able to keep looking at races in the correct (profitable) way.
Surely it’s just as arrogant to call yourself a ‘tipster’ when you don’t actually tip anything….
You’d actually back all horses in a race if they could all be backed at better odds thanperceived value price.
Not sure how that’s tipping, but what I do know is that it sucks the fun out of gambling..Surely it’s just as arrogant to call yourself a ‘tipster’ when you don’t actually tip anything….
You’d actually back all horses in a race if they could all be backed at better odds thanperceived value price.
Not sure how that’s tipping, but what I do know is that it sucks the fun out of gambling..I’ve been a tipster tipping on DLAP for years and before that on other forums. You can tip/back more than one horse in a race if you want to Andrew, it is not cheating.
If I tip/back two 8/1 shots in a race to win the same amount – it is exactly the same as you backing one 7/2 shot. Do you have fun when backing a 7/2 winner Andrew? And if I backed three 8/1 shots to win the same amount – it would be the same as you backing one 2/1 shot. Do you have……. well you get the picture (four 8/1’s would be 5/4).Yes, I have backed every horse in a race before now for a guaranteed profit Andrew. What’s wrong with a guaranteed profit on a race now and again? It’s getting one over on the enemy. All part of the fun. But it’s not the norm, the numbers of horses I back in a race has been greatly exaggerated by Gord, for his own personal reasons
. Don’t be conned Andrew.Whichever way a punter makes an over all profit is surely fun? I love racing, I love betting and I love making a living from it. Do feel lucky to do something I love as a job. May be the success won’t continue, but I’ll have fun trying Andrew.
Value Is EverythingSurely it’s just as arrogant to call yourself a ‘tipster’ when you don’t actually tip anything….
You’d actually back all horses in a race if they could all be backed at better odds thanperceived value price.
Not sure how that’s tipping, but what I do know is that it sucks the fun out of gambling..I’ve been a tipster tipping on DLAP for years
If I tip/back two 8/1 shots in a race to win the same amount – it is exactly the same as you backing one 7/2 shot. Do you have fun when backing a 7/2 winner Andrew? And if I backed three 8/1 shots to win the same amount – it would be the same as you backing one 2/1 shot. Do you have……. well you get the picture
Yes, I have backed every horse in a race before now for a guaranteed profit AndrewAll part of the fun. But it’s not the norm, the numbers of horses I back in a race has been greatly exaggerated by Gord, for his own personal reasons
. Don’t be conned Andrew.
Whichever way a punter makes an over all profit is surely fun? I love racing,Ginger , nobody can enlighten you sadly , your one of these guys that know it all
you can take my post or leave it , I certainly dont believe in a million posts just to have the last word
Lets not get off topic though , Mike has given us some real gems , we should learn from them
imo
Ricky
Mike thanks for the work
you have put in here but
it is a big shame you didn’t get
Mrs Large to vet your bets
and iron your old slips
The value debate reminds me of
a stink in my Paw’s old office
back in the 70’s
Paw worked in Australia House.
A chap came in from the next door
office and said " I had a big
touch on Balmerino and it just
won at 6-1Ol’ paw was turning green as he
told him, of course it was a
certainty and he romped home
in an ordinary hick race in the
west country.It was his first pipe opener
in England. Balmerino had won
the triple crown in New Zealand
including the 2000 guineas and
the Derby. He then went to Australia
and was voted horse of the year
after winning more races.
No-one apparently knew about this
equine marvel in England
apart from the chap
who caused the stink.Some say he was unlucky in running
coming second to Alleged in the Arc
however that is speculation
what is true is he caused a stink
in Paw’s old office.I’ve been a tipster tipping on DLAP for years
If I tip/back two 8/1 shots in a race to win the same amount – it is exactly the same as you backing one 7/2 shot. Do you have fun when backing a 7/2 winner Andrew? And if I backed three 8/1 shots to win the same amount – it would be the same as you backing one 2/1 shot. Do you have……. well you get the picture
Yes, I have backed every horse in a race before now for a guaranteed profit AndrewAll part of the fun. But it’s not the norm, the numbers of horses I back in a race has been greatly exaggerated by Gord, for his own personal reasons
. Don’t be conned Andrew.
Whichever way a punter makes an over all profit is surely fun? I love racing,For the record I tried and failed to make it pay full time backing just horses as I couldn’t afford to pay all my utility bills,food for the Gals,fuel tax and insurance on my vehicles and the odd bottle of Champers.
The Green King strikes again.
Oh those green eyes.Value Is Everything
Also said you would have backed Australia for the derby by now. 1 out of 2 aint bad.
. Or has one lucky mega win with the miracle (multiple) bet coming up (a la Gladys Haddock).
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