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Market up now…
https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/betfair-chase/winner
Hardly a surprise to see Bristol De Mai at the head of the market here, and it would be a brave man who fights him off for this.
Lostintranslation should have a huge season ahead of him, this is the plan, and I can see why he’s so short.
This is a race where I’ve never had a big bet, usually a race to enjoy, but I was hoping that Frodon would be bigger than 5’s. I was going to bet him, in the hope that this would set him up for Kempton, but if he stays at that price, I’ll be willing him on without a bet. Need a big run from him here to have any hope.
Can’t remember the last time, if ever, the three horses I liked, occupied the first three slots in the betting, so unusual territory for me.
I’ll no doubt bet one of the rags.
No doubt that if Potato wasn’t blocked he’ll turn the thread about Elegant Escapes but I think Delta Works looks interesting. Going to wait for the card to come out on racing post before seriously considering this race.
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.Frodon would be the one for me
Looks no value in his price at this stage though
Probably because nicholls has confirmed it’s his target
Regulars will know I think Bristol De Mai is a superstar, but I’d much sooner take 25s Elegant Escape EW than 2s the grey 6 weeks ahead of the race. But Tizzard won’t decide on the betfair for Elegant Escape until after the Charlie Hall, according to his stable tour, whereas he has Lostintranslation earmarked for Haydock already. A heavy ground Betfair would be the last place for a solid Gold Cup contender – beaten both runs on heavy, and the last thing he’ll want is being gutted on his first run of the season.
Elegant Escape in a heavy ground Betfair would be a cast iron EW nap. The Charlie Hall looks a chancy choice; the ground has been soft on only 5 occasions since 1997 – better ground on all other runnings.
Great thread as usual for a great race. Does anyone know how Sizing Tennessee is being campaigned this season? Still a lightly raced horse for an 11-year old with a great record at trips between 3m and 3m2f.
Don’t think he’ll go the Betfair route, but with a horse rated 164, where do you go with it at all?
Unless last season has done bad things to his wind as well as whatever problem he had at Aintree that made him jump so miserably badly. Poor horse should have been pulled up.
FRODON 6/1 Will improve for that debut run of course be hard but got pace as well think can win
I don’t make many comments on NH races as not as knowledgable about the jumps horses and their form being a flat racing fanatic. However I do love seeing these wonderful old favourites come back year after year and Bristol de Mai is in my books a rising star getting better each year. Still only 8 years old he seems to have been on the scene forever and on Saturday I would just love him to bloom to superstar status and win the Betfair and doing so join the ranks of the great Kauto Star and Cue Card in winning this race more than twice .
I’m not having a bet just watching and hoping that he wins but most of all that he comes home safe.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Very little rain forecast this week
Be interesting to see what the ground is like, the better the ground the better the chances for the speed horses lostintranslation and frodon
On soft or worse it would take something top class to beat bristol de mai
Disappointing there are so few runners, but hoping to see Lostintranslation proving he is a real Gold Cup contender.
Lostintranslation 15/8
I was very iffy about that JLT form in the GC thread, but now that form appears to be very hot i have had to reconsider my opinion on Lostintranslation for all i don’t fancy him for the KG or GC. BDM for me is a slogger in general, so with the ground looking no worse than soft i have to take him on with what i believe is a better, faster horse.
* Bristol de Mai
* Lostintranslation
* Frodon
* BallyopticThose four will battle for the win. Altior out as expected and Elegant Escape as well. I would have taken a little bet on Elegant Escape if he was a big price.
BDM showed last year that the ground didn’t matter; he just loves Haydock. Going to have my biggest bet of the year on BDM to win this. Think 6/5 is a great price for the King of Haydock. Lost in Translation may well be the higher rated Chaser come the end of the season; but this is Haydock and BDM doesn’t lose here. If you are a Lost In Translation fan he he comes up short this weekend I wouldn’t be too disappointed; however if he managed to topple the King of Haydock then he’ll be a worthy Gold Cup favourite.
Form last year was dismal though, he beat Native River who always needs the run 4 lengths?
I’d agree it showed he acts on it, but he doesn’t perform to the same level on it as he does when it’s hock deep.
I couldn’t really split Bristol de Mai and Lostintranslation at those prices, so I will remain loyal to Ballyoptic who has done me a favour so far this season at Chepstow and Wetherby. This is another step up, but at 14/1 it is worth a little bet.
Ballyoptic 14/1
Jac
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