Below the Line

[billion]

MrE wrote:

I find this idea the hardest to get my head around, it appears illogical… why cut out the top weights???… why not cut out the bottom weights, or the first 5 in the betting forecast, or perhaps any horse that has a name starting with the letter ranging from A to X, there’s just no logic as to why this would possibly work.
But, in saying that, I have got something using this idea and it’s looking profitable, strange but true…. but more work is required and I hope to hammer the final nail into this particular coffin by Sunday night….. what a way to waste a sunny weekend.
It appears that you can’t have a successful “one size fits all” system for this, it’s too volatile with scary bank drawdowns, so I believe the answer might be to have to separate systems, one for Flat and AW, the other for the jumps… that’s what I’m working on at present….

MrE

Perhaps a little history may help you MrE, I will try to do this as quick as I can because I am battling against a week signal here in sunny Norfolk.

A chap (I think) named Loanshark via another forum told the story of how another person (I forget who) lets say a pal always bet horse number 12 in the big Saturday handicap. I won’t go into the finer details because I forget them.

But number 12 would be a way down the card of a larger handicap field and so in theory should be carrying less weight and once more, in theory, should have an advantage over all those with more lead under the saddle.

This reminded me of a long forgotten system which discounted those weight bearing animals and it is not too greater leap to guestimate the field of those Saturday handicaps at 18 and so number 12 is approx 2/3 from the top (or 1/3 from the bottom) and so felt like a good place to start.

Lets look at today’s Grand National, the 60% line is number 24 (O’Faolains Boy) carrying 10st 11lb which happend to be the same weight as ONE FOR ARTHUR but ARTHUR was card number 22 and therefore is it the done thing to draw the line at the card number or the equal weight?

I am not sure how far rab123 has progressed with his tweaks etc. but maybe the starting point of this idea has to be where the so called line is drawn.

All your other suggestion have a certain validity to them and I am sure are possible to construct systems or methods with them as a main constituent just as our man elcartero has a leaning towards top weights which after all should be the best horse in any handicap race but here we are looking for the “light-weights”. My original thinking being if any given rating tips the horse we may have a chance (Timeform being my first call) and if backed up by an expert tipster the chances should be increased of finding the winner.

Rab123 found more winners than I with his own adaption and perhaps with the benefit of your data base and years of experience it may be possible to take the idea one step futher. I hope so!

Billy's Outback Shack

[rab123]

Good Moring gentlemen since all those stats two runners and two losers one today
2.30 Wind Mistress Quickly

The basic rule system has preformed well last seven days.

2.10 Kel The Doorman/Buckled
4.10 Kel Roxyfet
4.55 Red Golconda Prince

[rab123]

3.10 Font Snippetydoodah 2nd
8.15 Kemp Papou Tony W 5/1

[rab123]

3.25 New Good Run L

[rab123]

1.50 Muss Penwortham
4.45 New/A Arthur Burrell

[rab123]

3.55 South Treaty of Rome W7/2
5.15 FFos Cogry/The Bay Oak 2nd9/2 /W9/2

[rab123]

1.30 Wolv Queen in Waiting W4/1
3.10 Wolv Orignal Choice W3/1
2.05 Red Carlton Frankie W2/1
4.20 Red Roller W3/1
4.30 Mark/R Kauto Riko pl7/1

[rab123]

2.20 War Boy In A Bentley/Alpine Secret

4.10 Pont Star Catch

[rab123]

5.45 Pont Horsforth
1.20 Wolv Dalalah
3.00 Wolv My Girl Maisie
5.15 Wolv Pipers Piping

[rab123]

4.05 Chest Teoodoro L
6.55 Chelm Pavillon W9/2

[rab123]

4.15 Catt Tonto’s Spirit N/R

[rab123]

3.55 Ling Quench Dolly
6.50 NOtt Haraz
8.00 Not Glorvina

Up In Weight
3.45 Mark/R Popelys Gull

[rab123]

5.55 Hay Never Up
2.40 Not Major Valentine

UP in Weight
4.15 Ling Ghalib

4.00 Asc Stamp Hill…. Billion’s Trainers?

[rab123]

2.50 With Lydia’s Place
6.50 Wind Sparkalot
7.30 Tow Goodnight Charlie

[rab123]

8.35 Perth Jester Jet

[rab123]

5.40 York Brimham Rocks L
4.45 News Outcrop pl14/1
5.35 Aint Black Tulip pl9/2
6.05 Aint DegoochL
6.50 News Flymetothestars W5/4
7.30 Ham Kensington Star pl3/1
8.40 Ham El Hombre W11/4

[rab123]

5.35 Newm Acclaim the Stars L
5.50 Donc Our Kylie L

[Author]

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