Below the Line

[rab123]

Two for tomorrow
3.00 South NoguchiL
4.00 South Bold grove L

[rab123]

2.10 South Millybond L
3.55 South Saved My Bacon L

[rab123]

6.45 Newc Erissimus Maximus L

Two CD’s Forty points up this year.
3.05 Sand Rathlin Rose W 7/4
6.15 Newc African Queen L

[billion]

Hello again Rab123.

It has been a while since I dropped in for a “nose around” but it is good you are keeping the idea going. Are you managing to turn a profit and have you made any further changes to the selection process?

Billy's Outback Shack

[rab123]

Morning Billion

I keep tinkering with it but can’t make any money.

3.25 War Chateau Robin

[billion]

I have dipped my Sunday toe into the water with a teenie tweak for the handicap with the largest field of the day for the Class 3 3.55 Warwick also offering the top prize money: –

ABBEYGREY at 6/1 (15/8 for a top 3 finish looks tempting but I have gone e/w for my Sunday fun.

Good luck with yours Rab123 it is interesting to see the other Robin in the race is trained by Kim’s ex. Caroline.

Billy's Outback Shack

[rab123]

3.20 Hunt Wade Harper pl 9/2
4.40 Kel Tantamount pl 10/1

[MrE]

Hi guys…. just reading through the thread and noticed that it started well enough…. noted also that Rab made a few modifications, so I was thinking whether the rules had changed from Page 1???….
Can’t understand why there are so few selections, I would have thought that there would have been selections on most days… can you shed some more light on this Rab, I’ll chuck some parameters into my database and see if something sticks out…

MrE

[rab123]

That will be great MrE I keep tingering with it.
Tomorrow there is one, more tingering all back fitting but it has produced mega money
from £100 bank.I have it running in HRB at the moment, last seven days produced six
out of seven selections.

7.45 Kemp Gala Celebrations

Kiss of death

Only a place today nothing tomorrow.

[billion]

I have always held the belief this idea will flourish better when the ground conditions are softer. I have no substance for this belief other than horses with less weight to carry may fare better under such conditions.

If this proves not to be the case I think any system with a high weighting towards Handicap Ratings such as RPR, Timeform, Formcast etc. etc. etc. indicate the figures produced are from any horse at its peak and therefor only an improving horse can do better and again ground conditions will have an effect and perhaps reverse the benefits of those with a lighter burden racing on the soft.

What on earth has this all to do with being in the bottom 40% of the card, well I am not sure but it may have something and perhaps ignoring the sole called top rated or top 2 or even 3 whilst filtering it into those being under consideration may provide some help but I doubt if it can ever better 6 winners from 7 selections. Well done rab123.

Billy's Outback Shack

[rab123]

MrE and BILLION

I have run these through HRB and these are the figures.

Standard 19%win 49%pl ROI-10pts 8-12runners card No 6-9 thats over 5 years

NEW BILLION 18%win 33% pl ROI 131pts over 2 years 9-16 card No 6-9 9-16 runners
class 3-6 plus some trainers

BRAND NEW BILLION 32% win 54% pl ROI 94 pts over 5 years same race card numbers
plus some trainers and as I wrote the other day started with £100 bank and using
1% of bank made mega money but its back fitted. I will try it through PR Rating
and see what that comes up with.

[rab123]

Put it through PR Rating as well not to bad either will tinker some more.

[MrE]

Rab….aha, do we have lift off???…. this might start to get exciting now, we have some stirring in the loins. I realise that there are other posters on board and VTC, Matron and Alexander have been posting forever, but it’s not something that members can enjoy playing with… this, on the other hand, could prove interesting… and added to that, Rab has access to HRB AND PR Ratings, two of the best ratings software out there. I also think that Bill might just get a funny feeling where he hasn’t had a funny feeling for many years…. thanks for inviting me to play….

MrE

[billion]

The emotions are stirred

Billy's Outback Shack

[rab123]

4.15 Ling Takatul

[MrE]

I find this idea the hardest to get my head around, it appears illogical… why cut out the top weights???… why not cut out the bottom weights, or the first 5 in the betting forecast, or perhaps any horse that has a name starting with the letter ranging from A to X, there’s just no logic as to why this would possibly work.
But, in saying that, I have got something using this idea and it’s looking profitable, strange but true…. but more work is required and I hope to hammer the final nail into this particular coffin by Sunday night….. what a way to waste a sunny weekend.
It appears that you can’t have a successful “one size fits all” system for this, it’s too volatile with scary bank drawdowns, so I believe the answer might be to have to separate systems, one for Flat and AW, the other for the jumps… that’s what I’m working on at present….

MrE

[rab123]

One for tomorrow

4.50 Tram Simiel

[Author]

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