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Newbury – 14:05 – Marchilhac – 33/1 E/W – 2pts
Lots of equality in lower numbers. PU while in position in only race in 18 months, good shout due to earlier-career form if odds right – (I think here I was saying that as an outside chance the horse might do well with everything else being on par, while it had a look in barring circumstances in other races. I think a good third of the bet, having done a bit of reading and seeing the odds its getting, was just seeing the horse mentioned somewhere.)Thurles – 14:20 – State of Cognac – 8/1 E/W – 2pts
Ran over further distance, has possibility with lower weight than favourite, needs the slightly slower ground I’m predicting from (the not accounted for today) rain, Improved from 2018 Season in 2019Kelso – 14:25 – Joke Dancer – 5/1 – 2pts
Won at lower prizes, won after not raced in a while. Form says can finish strong which is a good win shout depending on odds. – Opened at 5/1, amongst others, go with gut. (I wanted to let this drift, but seeing it open just around the price I thought it’d get had me backing myself.)Newbury – 14:40 – Idilico 12/1 E/W – 2pts
Never won a low entry race, but always close, finishes well. Has to beat one or two more proven horses but seems a shout with others poorNewbury – 14:40 – 10/1 E/W – 2pts
Sometimes close in lower entry races, good second in higher prize with same ground, jockey and trainer in good form (I’m betting on two horses to either place or one to win here, which might not be the wisest thing)Newbury – 15:15 – A Little Chaos – 22/1 E/W – 2pts
Improving horse that has done well at weight if not over distance. Probably an outside shout, but has proven they can win recently (It’s entirely possible I mistook this with Some Chaos in the 3pm at Kelso, and justified it after. I seem to have written this down in my notes as a take at 5/1 odds, when it started much further than that. On the other hand Some Chaos is 9/2 but I’m far too close to my budget to jump at it.)Thurles – 15:30 – Lischlogher Lad – 5/1 – 2pts
Heavy weight, old horses, but looks like the only horse with experience and some form for the distance and conditions. Does well in chases so don’t know what it’s like on hurdles. Might be too old and too much weight. Can see an outsider winning this with so much in the air. (I had written down I’d take this at 7/1, but at 5/1 I figured I needed a few closer shots on my day’s betting, just for adrenaline’s worth)Thurles – 15:30 – Glenmalure Lodge – 12/1- 2pts
Pulled up twice, always with low weights, like this race. Has run longer races and been respectable. Last race bodes well, but ground is varianceThurles – 16:40 – Sizing Rome – 3/1 – 2pts
Did well in big price race, depends on getting around at heavy weight, looks good (I had this down as the favourite and my second pick as longer odds to take, when it went in with that favourite and this second I took this at the slightly longer, but still short odds to have something to shout at the telly.)Kelso – 16:45 – Craig Star – 13/2 2pts
Had better previous Seasons, seems to stay well in a race, could be an each way place in a poor race, ground might suit with drying (took it to win when I saw the odds, although I probably should have hung on to see if it drifted)Thurles – 17:15 – You Can’t Catch Me – 20/1 E/W – 2pts
EW Potential, has come outside places in races before, probably has a race in him if the trainer can show it, drier ground is a potential benefit as well. Back if odds are decent (I said I’d take this at 16/1 so when the price was 20/1 I took it. It’ll probably drift but I have no nerve.)‘lo all. I’m new to the site.
About once a year I get in a few beers, settle in front of the TV and have a little ol’ bet on the horses. This year, with Cheltenham being so exciting and me looking to fill my time, I decided to see if I want to keep it up through the fallow, non-festival days.
These are all my picks for tomorrow. Most of what I’m doing is just an exercise in occupation: filling my time of an evening and watching how well my time was spent the next afternoon (not very well, typically.) I have a small little budget, if that budget keeps me through a week of racing, only losing a few quid then it might be ok (I still haven’t experienced losing enough.) Obviously, I’d like to win, but I don’t have my eye well in enough to manage that it seems, and that’ll take practice. Of course some people with mounds of practice are well down in the profit/loss column as well, so I may be stuck at this for the foreseeable future.
Anyway, like I said, these are my picks. And apologies for horrifying you with my terminology bastardised from the proper jargon.
Welcome to TRF FiftyP
best of luck with the thread
Nice write up but you have left the horse name out of the 2.40 NewburyBlackbeard to conquer the World
Hi 50p. Pleasant time-filling, low budget, occasionally beer fuelled, telly shouting fun is my kind of betting! I hope your thread is more lucrative than mine but sure it’s all good fun, good luck
I just couldn’t let it rest this morning. This is just a smidge less than the odds I wanted, but what are Saturdays for?
Kelso – 15:00 – Some Chaos – 9/2 – 2pts
Other horses are flashy, this goes up in weight but is solid in performing and seems to finish well – Bookies showing about five horses around the same price. Blue Flight early favourite.Also, Glenmalure Lodge should have E/W next to it.
Newbury – 16:25 – Vinnie the Hoddie – 5/1 – 2pts
Seeing as I have an hour to fill with nothing to watch, and decided to do what you should never do and chase losses. I thought this was worth something at longer prices, but it’s stuck around 5/1 all day. That might say something. I might be listening to the worst part of myself.
My thread title seemed to play out very well, “Beginner’s Luck.” I had some very fortuitous turns today that meant I went from a little down, to a fair bit up.
Kelso – 15:00 – Some Chaos – 9/2 – 2pts – Returned 11pts
This was one I was hesitant on at the odds being offered. It’s something I’ve done before, where I’m apprehensive about a horse I have a strong feeling on because I want longer odds, where my own uncertainty is stopping me putting money on something short as I can’t be “that correct” especially when I take into account other horses’ potential. This could be just as much me looking for long odds for a big win. This one shows I’ll have to build the knowledge to get over it. It was a crazy race to watch, Some Chaos really was some chaos: hurtling through fences more than jumping them, nearly unseating the rider, and generally looking manic from the start. He really finished out though, real quality.Thurles – 16:40 – Sizing Rome – 3/1 – 2pts – Returned 18pts at BOG 8/1
My Best Odds Guarantee helped me with this one. I had it priced as the favourite before the bookies put their prices up. When I saw it go up as second to the favourite I took it. Right before the off it drifted out to 8/1. I don’t know what was seen in the paddock, but thank you whoever started that. Before the last race I felt this was the one that would pull me back to only a minor loss, and was probably my most uplifting feeling after it won. It looked a controlled race the whole way through from him, and if it wasn’t for the bookies just slightly getting the odds wrong I might have gone for what was the favourite if it was shown as second favourite.Thurles – 17:15 – You Can’t Catch Me – 20/1 E/W – 2pts – Returned 37.6pts
More luck with the favourite, who I would have backed had I got the right odds, being withdrawn. Another horse was also withdrawn and Rule 4 was in play with the size of the field (not that I could work out what the meant for the return in the moment of it happening.) With that my horse went from a potential of placing, for me, to me looking at who else I thought had it in them, to me really wanting the place (despite the reduced payout tempering my prospects of a profitable day.) Watching the horse on the way around it built in esteem for me. It shot out of every fence, really picking it up. The jockey, JJ Slevin, kept the horse level throughout and then it had just enough by the end. A big win I would have longed for, but never really expected, not until it was half way around the course.Overall – Up 30.6pts
A delightful day, even if it seemed disappointing until the very last. My result is probably masking where I need to have a think on things, especially having the confidence to back horses at lower odds.With an enjoyable day yesterday, including three or four afternoon beers and a celebratory Old Fashioned before dinner, it meant I was half asleep by 7pm. That then meant I didn’t have the energy to look at today’s cards, so there’s no Sunday racing for me. I’m not sure if there’s a point in having a flutter after the bookies have 12+ hours of action to sort out their prices.
I have been looking through upcoming meets, and, of course, I decided to get into this betting business at absolutely the wrong time. From my limited time with ponies as a child all my attention was on jumps. I have absolutely no clue about flat racing. The summer means NH racing will be tailing off, and I’m not at all sure how to evaluate anything other than a hurdle or a chase.
In other activities, I’ve been looking at the upcoming meets in Ireland. Particularly what I can get to from my base in the south, via public transport. To say racecourses don’t really cater for those who don’t drive might be an understatement. Irish bus and rail systems are partially to blame, when it takes three hours to go sixty or seventy miles in a direction that’s not straight towards Dublin, but even then there’s very few races putting on shuttle buses between their town’s main train or bus station. Limerick, which is one of the bigger cities, suggests a taxi between the town and the course, which would end up costing you €30 for the day, on top of entry and everything else. Thankfully, my local track, Mallow (Cork,) has some sense and puts on a shuttle bus between the train station and the course. Another problem is the evening meets, so you’re risking, if it even exists, missing the last bus or train. All this, combined with the mostly evening and family days for the summer along with my lack of knowledge of flat racing, means I doubt I’ll be getting to a racecourse any time soon. Which is a shame. I guess I’ll just have to learn about flat racing and keep betting enough to see the races via the bookies’ streams.
Wincanton – 15:15 – Nightfly – 5/1 – 2pts
One poor, one good showing in bigger prize race. Hasn’t proven itself over 2m4f but on similar ground over 2m3f has done well. Depends on whether it gets to race its own race and the effect of the weight.My other bet for today, Midnight Midge, is a Non Runner. That’s a real pity as it was the horse I was most looking forward to seeing today. The Nightfly race I have as quite open among the top three or four, so it’s a real gamble. In the 14:45 I was thinking of Jenkins and in the 15:45 Findusatgorcombe but I’m not happy with the odds. Findusatgorcombe looks to be drifting a little from last night, but not near to where I wanted it.
A low key day for me, which I should probably expect more of coming into the summer.
My afternoon was looking a little empty, so I caved to the odds that were up. The market can’t always be wrong, can it?
Wincanton – 15:45 – Findusatgorcombe – 5/2 – 2pts
Always in mix in chases, drier ground might suit despite step in weight. Another horse is tipped so potentially good odds, though doubtful.No luck today, with Findusatgorcombe in second after what looked like a tough race. However, I’m annoyed as muck by Nightfly. The horse seemed to be struggling from a quarter of the way into the race, and never looked anywhere near fluent. It didn’t help that there was a fence another horse more or less jumped into him, and almost happening again at the next. I’ll never know what the horse was thinking but I haven’t a clue what either the trainer or jockey were thinking.
Today – Down 4pts
Overall – Up 26.6pts
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