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Hills quick off the mark as usual, and have it priced up, with entries due tomorrow…..
https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/becher-handicap-chase/winner
I’ll no be rushing in, but I’ll take my usual approach. Unlike The Grand National where you ideally want one that’s never ran in the race before, in The Becher, I really like one with a bit of experience round there.
Hills taking no chances right enough.
Kimberlite Candy and Walk In The Mill both deserve their place at the head of the market, while despite there being a real possibility of regression, I think that Vieux Lion Rouge will still be popular.
It’s another pair though, who really catch my eye.
Former winner Blaklion ran miles better than I expected on comeback, and though a massive ask to follow that up, he’s been given a real chance by the handicapper.
Hogans Heights is another winner round here, in last years Grand Sefton, and he’s impossible to rule out on that evidence.
Ramses De Teille disappointed in the 2019 National, but he fits the bill here for me, and I think he’s lurking on a nice mark.
Of those without experience, I’m sure I’m not the only one who’ll be watching Jett closely, but it’s Give Me A Copper who really interests me off an attractive mark.
No bet yet, and Kimberlite Candy and Walk In The Mill look like the common sense approach, but it’s this quartet I’m looking at right now….
Blaklion 16’s
Give Me A Copper 14’s
Hogan’s Heights 16’s
Ramses De Teille 14’sWalk In The Mill selects himself and Kimberlite Candy is impossible to ignore based on last season’s evidence.
Jett is worth a look with a view to the National and his likely pilot knows how to win around here.
Singlefarmpayment is the one really standing out to me. Ran a great race in the National itself in 2019 and I’ve always suspected that the Aintree fences would suit a quirky type like him. He doesn’t win very often and will need to rediscover some of his best form even off his current mark of 139, but that run the other day wasn’t devoid of promise and will have put him just right for this. Unlike others in this; he wouldn’t be running just to get experience of the fences as he will need to go up a few pounds to guarantee a run in the National if that’s still the target.
Some horse Singlefarmpaymemt.
I couldn’t bet him Peter, but I think he’d be a popular winner. There’s been a couple of times where I don’t know how he got beat. Definitely a character.
The Conditional 12-1 + Minellaceebration 16-1 are my two early fancies in this. I can’t split either of them just now, so I haven’t had a bet yet.
I think Katy may have the Many Clouds in mind for Minellacelebration rather than the Becher
Le Breuil 16-1 ew 5 places.
A fair few horses with weight rises to contend with, season debuts, doubly entered, and possibly best days behind them.
Le Breuil on the other hand gone the other way weights wise and has a 25lb weights turnaround with Kimberlite Candy on last season’s run. Also has had a run and isn’t doubly entered. In his stable tour Ben Pauling described his horse as not being right last season after his NH Chase exertion the season before. He thinks he has him back to his NH Chase season wellbeing.
At 16-1, and his lowest ever mark, I’ll give him a chance to show it.
Nice price Mike!
I backed Le Breuil at 12/1 ew 5 places.
For the exact same reasons as you’ve written down.
I’ve had two early bets in this. Le Breuil at 16-1, and Walk In The Mill 8-1.
I think that Callipso Collonges could be an interesting outsider at 33-1
17 left after the 5 day decs. I can see this cutting up a bit with several of these still holding other entries on the card and Sandown.
I’d give Crosspark another look if I knew he was lining up. Clearly in good heart and stays forever.
Double Shuffle is creeping further down the weights and is back at a more suitable trip. I just would prefer more positive signs in his last couple of runs.
And lastly are we all just going to be left kicking ourselves for letting Vieux Lion Rouge start at double figures off a mark of 140 at his preferred course, distance and conditions?
It’s not the most vintage lineup, but it’s certainly open. I can see us being left with 13/14 on the day.
I thought Coo Star Sivola looked ‘back’ on the comeback run at Bangor the other day, giving him a go at 33/1 here.
5lbs below the Ultima winning mark nowadays as well and decent jockey upgrade with Lizzie in the paddocks and STD taking over.
All a bit exposed and unexciting otherwise for me. Lots of incestuous old Aintree form. Did used to like Le Breuil but not keen on backing any of Ben A. Pauling’s horses at the moment, also wonder if that 4 Miler experience soured the horse as it did for Discorama.
Not very original but Walk In The Mill for me. Solid option who’ll embrace the slog in the forecast soft ground.
I can see why many fancy Le Breuil and Coo Star Sivola but i can’t trust either enough to back them.
My 2 are…
Le Breuil 16s 5 places
Walk In The Mill 6s 4 placesGonna be testing up there looking at the forecast.
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