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Baffling Handicapping

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  • #1540148
    thewexfordman
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    • Total Posts 1200

    To make matters worse, the 3 previous runs under rules I refer to above were all hurdle races. Yet he was allowed to run in a handicap on chasing debut? That makes a total mockery of the system.

    #1540171
    Avatar photorobnorth
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    • Total Posts 7568

    His official rating was 35 which is absurd given that you have next to no chance of running off anything lower than mid 60s at the absolute lowest. A horse that, under Rules, has got no closer than 93 lengths behind the winner in a different discipline should not be given a rating and trainer should be told to “go away and race it properly”. You can’t even say it was rated on its point win because that would have surely 60s at wrost.

    There is a problem with the “go away and race it properly” line however in that there are few if any chances of running a ‘slow horse’ in anything other than maiden/novice hurdles or handicap hurdles/chases. There simply aren’t any opportunities with few non-handicap novice chases available now giving a chance of a decent race for those in the lower echelons.

    Not sure what options the GB handicapper has in regard of horses beaten out of sight in all runs. Does anyone know if he has the option of not awarding a rating?

    #1540214
    Avatar photopatriot1
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    I was asking the same questions on Twitter last night. I don’t see how you can give a rating of 35 on the basis of just three runs.

    Surely the handicapper can’t raise him more than a stone for winning a class 5. Could he win three races before he is even in the 70s?

    I notice he’s declared to run at Ffos Las tomorrow. Normally you would run a horse under a penalty before he gets hammered in the ratings. But there shouldn’t be the need to do this on this occasion.

    #1540216
    Avatar photorobnorth
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    Advantage of running a 35 rated horse off a penalty is that it won’t make a difference to his weight! Assuming he’s recovering from Warwick ‘exertions’ then the stable have to have a go again.

    His rating was 35 but allowing for the 38lbs out of the handicap he ran off a rating of 73. If he could win comfortably off 73 then he has to be reassessed in the mid to high 80s at minimum. I would guess he will go up to around 88 with the second up a pound or two as well.

    #1540398
    Avatar photoEx RubyLight
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    • Total Posts 4240

    Raised 52 lbs… Great stuff!!! I hope all the Prescott et al will have their horses punished the same way after three uninspiring efforts in Maiden or Novices’ races. If a horse is tailed off three times in a row, there is no way it should get a handicap mark.

    #1540423
    Avatar photopatriot1
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    • Total Posts 961

    52lbs for winning an egg and spoon race is farcical. As was the original mark.

    Meanwhile some interesting examples from Nick Alexander.

    Kinneston

    #1540469
    Avatar photoThe Tatling Cheekily
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 2723

    Raised 52lb, jesus wept. Shame he isn’t Gigginstown owned, that would have been class.

    BUY THE SUN

    #1540470
    Avatar photorobnorth
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    I was one pound out, which at least suggests my studying of the ratings in the last year hasn’t been a complete waste of time!

    Before anybody says it, that doesn’t mean I agree with the ratings, just that I can get more of a handle on how horses are likely to be rated.

    #1540475
    Avatar photoThe Tatling Cheekily
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    • Total Posts 2723

    Joking part, I can’t agree the rise is ridiculous. Had to be something huge from that far out of the handicap and hosing up, backed off the boards too which I always think gets taken a dim view of.

    The ridiculous thing was giving the horse a rating in the first place. Ignoring the fact they were more than likely three non-triers, there are seperate ‘marks’ for Hurdles and Chases. How was the horse allowed a Chase OR at all, having only completed three hurdles under rules? I must admit I didn’t think that was possible.

    BUY THE SUN

    #1540477
    thewexfordman
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    • Total Posts 1200

    I’m usually highlighting rises that I think are too high, but on this occasion I actually think Danilo D’airy was leniently treated, considering the front 2 pulled so far clear of the rest.

    #1540478
    Avatar photorobnorth
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    The reason hurdles ratings get carried forward to chases is that there are comparatively few non-handicap chases, the BHA having chucked their all in with novice handicaps and open handicaps. For a maiden hurdler that connections might hope (or know) is better over fences there is little option but to run in a enough non-handicap hurdles to get a rating and then go into handicap chases.

    #1540483
    Avatar photoThe Tatling Cheekily
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    Thanks Rob. I remember the likes of Monkerhostin being supposedly ‘chucked in’ over fences on hurdle form, genuinely was not aware of that. I do prefer the flat in my defence.

    BUY THE SUN

    #1541531
    thewexfordman
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    • Total Posts 1200

    Danilo D’airy adds to the embarrassment the handicapper should be feeling.

    He’s just won again by over 3 lengths not extented giving 10 pounds to an 80 rated horse back in 2nd, with both of them pulling 34 lengths clear of the rest.

    I said the 52 pound rise was very lenient.

    #1541573
    Avatar phototbracing
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    • Total Posts 1453

    Some tracks and performances can be difficult to judge a handicap performance. Pontefract in particular is a course that comes to mind where runner can often win by exaggerated distances.

    #1541579
    pilgarlic
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    • Total Posts 789

    I don’t think the handicapper should be allowed to put up any horse more than 7 lbs at a time. If it results in the odd horse winning by half the length of the track and racking up a sequence, so what ?

    #1541585
    Avatar photopatriot1
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    I would have to agree Pilgarlic. It wasn’t connections fault that he had such a ridiculously low rating. 52 pounds for winning a prize that covered one months training fee is a nonsense.

    The problem with British racing is that ratings are calculated to try and stop horses running up sequences which is why trainers have to find ways to get their horses marks down to levels far below their true ability so that when their horse gets hammered for having the temerity to win a race it will still have something in hand of it’s new mark.

    Add to this the fact that prize money is so low that owners have to back their own horses just to try and get some of their costs back and we end up with these betting plots that the public know nothing about until they have happened.

    #1541592
    Avatar photoThe Tatling Cheekily
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 2723

    Limiting how much a horse can be raised? Which one of you is Mark Prescott?

    BUY THE SUN

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