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Baffling Handicapping

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Viewing 17 posts - 18 through 34 (of 70 total)
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  • #1533739
    apracing
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    Sorry to disappoint you, but that 2lb rise has nothing to do with his win at Ascot. Because that race was on a Sunday, the resulting handicap changes won’t be published until next Tuesday.

    That rise was because the horse he beat at Chepstow, Zambezi Fix, has run well again since, earning a 3lb rise himself for another close second place. The handicapprs call that a rise based on ‘collateral form’.

    And fwiw, I expect that the rating he’ll get next Tuesday will be 147 or 148.

    #1533740
    apracing
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    Regarding the Irish handicapper and placed horses, he raised the Irish chase mark of Entoucas, a short head second to Sky Pirate in the Grand Annual, by 6lbs.

    That fits with the reaction of the local handicapper, who put Sky Pirate up 8lbs for his win.

    #1533771
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    Hi Jack,
    It was more a general point responding to DBRDBR’s earlier post about the British handicapper. Seems to me that if (and only “if”) the Irish handicapper puts horses up so little – supposedly resulting in many Irish horses winning big Cheltenham handicaps… I don’t see why the British Handicapper should be blamed. If (only “if”) the Irish Handicapper is too lenient, surely it is the fault of the Irish Handicapper?

    Value Is Everything
    #1533774
    Avatar photojackh1092
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    GT, the UK handicapper claims to completely ignore the Irish handicapper’s ratings and they supposedly keep a set of marks for each and every Irish horse, they just don’t publish them until an entry. It shouldn’t really matter then what the Irish do.

    Personally speaking i’d say the UK system on the whole needs a massive overhaul. No idea how it would be done, but surely in the long-term the UK/IRE systems should link and become one.

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1533784
    Avatar photoThe Tatling Cheekily
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    Watched a podcast prior to Cheltenham (EDIT – It was Hyslop and Walsh’s ‘Road To Cheltenham’, the edition where they focused on the handicap races), and a chap from the UK Handicap OR team was on saying that of every hurdler in training the ‘Median’ rating in Ireland, was 4lb less than than the UK median OR. Therefore, unless they believed Irish hurdlers were generally 4lb worse than UK horses (he did not believe this), the Irish hurdlers would need to be raised 4lb as a matter of course when running in the UK. Prior to any ‘special cases’.

    Seemed a rather crude way of looking at it, but it did make mathematical sense.

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    #1533794
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    Fair comment Jack. :good:

    4 lbs seems not enough, TTC… Unless you’re Mr O’Leary. ;-)

    Value Is Everything
    #1533795
    Avatar photoThe Tatling Cheekily
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    Don’t know GT, but the 4lb difference was what the Medians highlighted apparently.

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    #1533796
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    Is the handicapping system based on time? :unsure:

    Value Is Everything
    #1533797
    Avatar photoThe Tatling Cheekily
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    Not sure what you mean?

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    #1533802
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    “Time” as in the difference between the winner and second is timed and divided by the amount of time a length is worth.

    Value Is Everything
    #1533805
    Avatar photoThe Tatling Cheekily
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    Sorry, I thought you were responding to me with your post.

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    #1534073
    Avatar photoyeats
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    British handicapper put Tiger Roll up one pound for his Cheltenham win to 167.

    #1534081
    Avatar photoThe Tatling Cheekily
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    O’Leary crying again about Tiger Rolls OR in the RP. Thought he would still be wiping egg off his face after Cheltenham, but no the teddys are out of the cot again.

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    #1534665
    apracing
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    Returning to the opening post, the revised official handicap rating for Funambule Sivola was published this morning – 149. So a total of an eight pound rise since Ascot, two of which related to the subsequent form of a horse he’s beaten previously.

    We’ll find out if he’s up to that sort of mark if he runs in the Grade 1 novice chase at Aintree on Saturday.

    #1534677
    Avatar photoyeats
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    33/1 for the Aintree race sums up his chances, would have a much better chance and be one of the favs for the Red Rum but maybe the trainer doesn’t want to have 2 horses in the same race. Both races could be a bit quick after Ascot anyway.
    After winning 4 of his last 6 and being a short priced fav in four they can hardly complain at 149.

    #1534882
    Avatar photoThe Tatling Cheekily
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    I’m absolutely sick and tired of hearing from Eddie O’Leary. “Tiger Roll shouldn’t be 4/1, his rating is a joke, he isn’t a Grade 1 horse, he has absolutely no chance, everyone knows why we are running him in the bowl, and we hope the handicapper reasesses his mark”.

    These sorts of comments are bloody horrendous. The sooner these entitled people are out of the sport, the better, as far as I’m concerned.

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    #1534890
    greenasgrass
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    • Total Posts 9181

    he has absolutely no chance, everyone knows why we are running him

    Because it’s all about the horse’s welfare, we have to do what’s best for Tiger blah blah. Hopefully those two potentially conflicting motivations aren’t tested too hard. You generally have to complete to have your mark reassesed don’t you?

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