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Whilst flicking through some old records from three years ago I found this little system which kept me amused and made a profit.
For those of you not familiar with the original "500/1 plan" here are the basics:
The purpose of this system is to consistently locate winning fourfold accumulators. Returns will not always be 500/1 but, if used correctly, should be in excess of 250/1.
A large bank is not required as the system uses comparitively small stakes and no expensive staking plans. Big returns won’t happen every day so the initial starting stake should be kept to a minimum until winnings allow for an increase.
A fourfold accumulator usually entails selecting one horse to win in each of four separate races. All four horses chosen have to win, if not then the bet is lost.
Using reasonable selection methods, most gamblers should be able to pick two or even three winners from four races from time to time, but it is getting a fourth winner that is the problem. How many times have you said "just one horse let me down"?
Each element of an accumulator bet increases the risk of that bet losing greatly, but this risk can be significantly reduced if we select more than one runner in each element of the bet.
Good selection methods will help us to reduce the need for too many selections. The principle of the plan is that we combine thoughtful, informed selections with some multiple options, working together this will greatly increase our chances of winning.
In two of the races we make just one selection. In the third race we pick two horses and in the remaining race we pick three runners. This requires just six different bets.
One of the main advantages of using this combination is the scope it gives us for increasing the accumulated odds of the bet. To explain further, although we need to stick to "short priced certainties" in the two elements of the bet where we can only make one selection, the luxury of being able to pick two or three horses in a field allows us to be more adventurous with our selections. For the "three horse race" we can choose a wide open race and select three runners at longer prices. This really helps to multiply the returns.
Here is my take on the selection method for the all-weather:
For races 1. & 2. I use non-handicap favourites. Maidens generally have a better strike rate so I try and use them if I can (even though the original system advises against using them). Normally I’ll just pick the shortest priced non-h’cap favourites. If there are a few races where the favourites are similarly priced I’ll choose those with the largest difference between the fav and 2nd fav prices.
For race 3. I’ll try and find a race (non-h’cap if possible) where the fav is as close to 5/2 as I can get. I then carry on up the betting forecast until I reach a horse priced 11/2 or greater and that’s the second selection for that race.
For race 4. I use the easiest method I could think of for helping out the accumulator. Of all the handicap races at the meeting (all the ones that are left if I’ve used a h’cap for race 3) I choose the first three in the betting forecast that have the highest total when added together. Whenever possible I try and use races with 12 runners or less but AW races have a habit of having at least 13.
For the sake of reducing the panic of trying to get up to the minute forecasts or early prices I decided to stick with whatever the RP forecast is showing. They seem to be accurate enough in the long run and will end up doing as many favours as not.
There you go – I hope that’s easy enough to follow. Any ideas for improvement would, as always, be welcome.
Here’s my first try – today’s selections are for Lingfield.
12.40 Dawn Piper <br>2.45 Smart Starprincess <br>12.10 Ripple Effect, Hurricane Coast <br>2.10 Cold Turkey, High Point, Typhoon Tilly
I may start to use Betfair to get my selections at some point in the future as this may indicate a more accurate market but I will just keep an eye on that for the moment. For instance, using the Betfair prices at about 10 o’clock this morning, the selections for the 2.10 race would be Cold Turkey, Moon Emperor and Tight Squeeze. All other selections would remain the same.
Bloody well done Urby, and on your first day too…. I make that a 110.72/1 Accumulator…… I’ll shout that out so that those that are asleep can see it…..
110/1 WINNING ACCUMULATOR…..
beautiful, just beautiful……<br>:biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin:
MrE
Excellent start Dave…could be a candidate for Bob Rolph’s 4PP Competiton. Watching with interest…:)
Regards
Brico
Praise from MrE.:o :o :o
You better print off his posting and frame it!
Well done Dave – I told you that medication would do wonders for you.;)
Regards – Matron<br>:cool:
(Edited by Matron at 5:33 pm on Jan. 14, 2004)
Just Fantastic Dave no other word for it! So clear too – wish I’d seen it yesterday would have had a dabble.
6 units staked and 112 back, you can afford a few losing days if they come along. Well done indeed.
Thanks guys. :blush:
It’s a shame that Dawn Piper was such a short price, otherwise the return could have been nearer the £170 mark.
Dawn Piper 1st @ 1/3 <br>Smart Starprincess 1st @ Evens <br>Hurricane Coast 1st @ 5/1 <br>Cold Turkey 1st @ 6/1
Return = £111.72 minus £5 losing stake <br>Running total = £106.72
I think that’s right – let me know if it isn’t – I’m no good at working out returns for multiple bets. Even with an online bet settler I don’t know what stake is or isn’t included in the totals.
Anyway, now that I’ve got some virtual cash to blow I’ll take a stab at today’s meeting at Southwell. The 2.00 race was proving difficult to judge by the forecast prices so I’ve incorporated the Betfair element into today’s selections somewhat.
1.30 Magic Mamma’s Too <br>2.00 Game Guru (King Priam has drifted big-time) <br>2.30 Soba Jones, Ellens Lad <br>3.00 Blakeset, Ovigo, Mufreh
Had yesterday’s bet not come in I doubt if I would be trying to squeeze some sense out of today’s AW meetings. The forecast seems to have very little to do with the current market which may not bode well. Still, you’ve got to be in it to win it … and it’s a right laff so what the hell! :biggrin:
Not even close yesterday and today’s forecasts indicate that trying to get a decent bet at Wolves will be very difficult. So I’ll leave the r/t at £100.62 and wait until tomorrow.
OK, here goes another attempt. Not very confident again but hopefully a better chance than Thursday.
Lingfield <br>1.20 Sewmore Character <br>1.55 Dusty Dazzler <br>3.35 Gold Guest, Blue Trojan <br>3.00 Eastern Breeze, Grand Passion, Star Of Normandie
No reason, I suppose, why one couldn’t put these in an e/w accumulator for twelve bets instead of six???
OK, now I’m down to about a hundred sterlings and the forecasts don’t look too bad today, so it’s time for another shot at the big one – and by that I meant the accumulator and not MrE … :biggrin:
Southwell <br>1.40 Sendintank <br>4.10 Mount Hillaby <br>1.10 Qobtaan, Lord Chamberlain <br>3.10 Hurricane Coast, Zarzu, Quiet Times
Let’s hope the donkeys have their thermals on this afternoon … :wollyhat:
Lingfield <br>1.00 Type One <br>2.00 Kabreet <br>3.00 Ground Patrol, Dancing Lyra <br>4.30 Nearly A Fool, Smith N Allan Oils, Wood Fern
Time to try again …
Lingfield <br>12.45 Fall In Line <br>1.20 Prince Aaron <br>4.15 So Vital, Newtonian <br>3.40 Coronado Forest, State Of Balance, Lyrical Way
Urban
Could assist me, simply question?
What is the bet way of describing this type of perm on a betting slip?
I’ve tried many times to explain to the counter girls at my local bookies :angry: and I want to make sure that when (you) I land the big one :o , there is no confusion when they have to cough up the readies. :cool:
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“The secret of success is to know something nobody else knowsâ€ÂÂ
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