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Interesting blog by Kevin Blake on the ATR website this week.
In an increasing number of states, Australian bookmakers are legally mandated to lay bettors up to a certain amount, indeed William Hill owned CentreBet guarantee higher liabilities than those their legally obliged to lay.
I’m certainly no expert on Australian bookmaking, but given that its fair to assume the regulation includes online betting, and that bookmakers down under presumably face individuals trying to get a dozen bets on the same horse, exchange arbers, ip tunnelers, market spoofers etc., etc., etc., they seem to be thriving all the same.
So why cant it happen (Coral excepted) in this neck of the woods?
If you had a no-excuses all-inclusive LTL guarantee enforced industry-wide, BPG, BBAL, fallers insurance and all of the popular concessions would go. No firm could afford to accommodate linetracking scrotes, Martin Lewis followers, commission agents etc without scrapping all of the perks that honest punters currently enjoy.
If you’re currently punting without angleshooting, I don’t think ‘the Australian system’ is something you really want to be rooting for.
Kevin Blake did raise one worthwhile point though. The each-way system simply has to go. Win-only and place-only are the future.
I’d imagine the concessions are popular, particularly amongst the non angleshooting squadrons.
But equally I’m sure the “committed supporters that have invested so much time (in racing) to become competent bettors”, that Kevin mentions in his blog, would happily waive the loss leaders for a reasonable, industry wide, LTL guarantee.
It doesn’t answer the question either, are the people, technology and plain old nous required by the bookmakers to meet the challenges that an enforced lay to lose guarantee pose and presumably rise to, exclusive to the Australians only?
No argument on the current bookmaker each-way system. Long overdue for the bin.
Tony Calvin’s piece strikes many more true notes with me than Kevin’s does. https://medium.com/@tony_calvin/honesty-and-acceptance-between-bookmaker-and-punter-may-put-an-end-to-the-bad-feeling-e63a1bc1bf78
Despite the madness of algos that are discouraging everyday punters – and there’s no question that needs fixed – successful punters are tail-gating on that in the hope of guaranteed accommodation for their bets. Naive at best and disingenuous at worst.
It doesn’t answer the question either, are the people, technology and plain old nous required by the bookmakers to meet the challenges that an enforced lay to lose guarantee pose and presumably rise to, exclusive to the Australians only?
Is that really the point though? This is about the spirit of the game. Personally, I spend 6-9 hours a day on average watching racing and studying form. I still have clean accounts with many major firms. Pretty much all of my betting is form-based.
Regardless of whether I’m a winner or a loser long-term, I’m the purest punter a bookie could ask to do business with. I actively avoid arbs and will voluntarily half my place if I want to bet on bad each-way races. I’m not going to be happy at all if I lose the valuable concessions (especially BPG) for the sake of MoneySavingExpert choppers and miscellaneous arb crunchers who think they have a right to shoot their angles against bookmakers.
It’s pretty much a full-time job to beat the overrounds with the formbook alone, but how long does it take to find the mindless arb or bad e/w? Seconds. You don’t need to have any knowledge of horse racing at all to do that. Personally I’ll be very upset if the system changes for the benefit of moneybuying cyborgs and screws me over in the process.
If you’re playing the game straight, you’ll be in the same boat.
Take you points LS3 and that’s how a bookmaker should handle your business, betting the way that you do. Having punted almost exclusively on the exchanges for over a decade now, my own limited experience with bookmakers would largely mirror your own. I stuck 1k into a dormant Paddy Power account for the recent DLAP thread that I did, and withdrew the deposit and profit (circa 3k) approximately three weeks and 64 bets later. Was back in my bank account a few days later no problem. Had a look today and I still have all my concessions intact. Granted this is a very small sample and timeframe and under the apparent current state of play its reasonable to expect a restriction sooner rather than later.
Trouble is so much current “anecdotal” evidence suggests there is very little middle ground anymore, beat SP a few times and your done.
Anyway I’m still fascinated to know how Australian bookmakers handle all the choppers, crunchers and cyborgs and still manage to survive given the liabilities their beholden to?
Would also love to know what happens if your winning with the likes of CentreBet given the State regulation. I had a look at their T&C’s, the only mention of shutdowns there were in connection to skullduggery, not “pure” punters.
Any Australian punters who look in here, your input would be appreciated!
LS3, I play the game straight(as you put it) but find it frustrating that
1. cant get on for the stakes I want, most times
2. have to do a lap of London shops to try and get bits on
3.be questioned by someone in the shop,behind the ramp , asking if I am arbing, when they don’t even know what it means
4. going into a shop the night before and asking for the price to be told, they are only available online, come back in the morning, which in essence means go online be restricted to two quid and mark our card for us5.Maybe I getting to old for this but I could do with out these concessions like if your selection has a shyte before the race you get your money back as a free bet.
6 this one is becoming very annoying, where books give you an ‘extra place’ BUT then take away by changing Place terms
I love the sport and have since the 60s but Please just let me have a bet like you use to,btw i am not an arber.
Good luck with your punting with or without concessionsCome on Neil. A few of those things don’t ring true. Cashiers asking you if you’re arbing?
“Excuse me sir, do you know the lay price for that horse on Betfair?”
*puts phone behind back* “Err…no?”
“Ok, carry on.”
What would that achieve exactly? That’s the sort of claim that makes me doubt people who claim to be restricted unfairly.
You can’t blame firms for trading most races online-only overnight. It’s standard practice. The ratio of straight business v informed ‘industry’ money at that time of day would be horrendous, especially as many firms just piggyback on PP/BFS’ wonky ‘first up’ lines.
I know what you mean about some extra place offers though. SkyBet going 1/5 4 rather than 1/4 3 on a 14-runner handicap isn’t worth anything if they’re going to be uncompetitive on prices in that market. Like the current trend of putting up woeful ante-post races at the 5 day stage, it’s pointless window-dressing.
LS3 many a time I have been asked that on boxing bets I have, no disrespect to you but why would I lie about being asked that? If a certain firm is the biggest price why would I go next door where it is a point smaller?
But if you do, you get called an arber
Another question why back in 70s you could get a decent £500 bet on (ok sometimes half a the price half at sp) when nowdays you get questioned and more often than not refused a 300/250,madness,books are killing it for lads who just like a bet.
Many lads (well old men now) have spoke about not being able to get 200/100 on a dog race at a bags meeting in the shop. They are not in the know just been brought up on diet of dog racing and horse racing and love a little betbtw why price up overnight if you don’t want those prices taken? do you not trust your odds compliers?
It just doesn’t make any sense, Neil. Unless you’ve bumped into cashiers who are acting way above their station, commenting about arbing directly to a customer is a massive no-no for shop staff. It isn’t part of any company’s PTL process and doesn’t sound realistic. Sorry, but I’m calling you on that one.
Back in the 1970s, bookmakers were much less paranoid about horse racing business because the exchanges didn’t exist. Large bets were much more likely to be straight business rather than exchange-driven. Obviously there were still commission agents but it was a purer time of compiler’s opinion versus punter’s opinion.
Haha, that’s a good one. Compilers are experts but, with the best will in the world, try it some time. Meticulously price up an Irish 80-109 or a maiden or a seller…really anything but good C4+ events and see how ridiculous your prices look at 10 the next morning. Live money shapes the markets and you’re naive to think anyone could put much faith in any form-based prices on most races overnight. Hence why the current arrangement is a pretty good compromise overnight. Races are up online with lowish limits – straight recreational punters can get fair enough bets on and we can react to market moves without doing our conkers overnight.
i am not talking about southwell on a Monday etc(I don’t bet in those sort of races) I am talking about decent heritage hcaps you cant take the price the night before in shops( for decent money)
Tell me why 20/30 years ago books would take these bets(they never went skint) but now at times you cant get a tanner on?
Surely we ‘aint all now got the game by the knackers, i’ve been at it years and back plenty of losers, all I wont is to be able to have a bet on the sports I love and supported for many years.If the compilers are experts(and I am not saying they are not) why oh why don’t the books trust them.
One point I fancied Williams(big fight on tv so not a dodgy backstreet row) to stop another fighter last year most firms were 6/4,as I was travelling to wales to watch the fight I thought I will have a bit of that (only £400) I had to go to four shops to get it on, now don’t tell that that is not pathetic, when shops allow 1000s pumped into a machine and btw not even a offer of a cup of tea to me,unlike the fobter’s.
Do Aussie bookies give special offers?
How competitive are markets? What over-round do Australian bookmakers work to?
Do Aussie bookies offer extensive Early prices and when? (When I first started betting in the middle 80’s “Early Odds” seemed restricted to just a few big Saturday races. Can’t remember them being available at all the day before). Bookmakers were not open in the evening.Maybe Aussie Bookies can afford to do a Lay to lose guarantee because their profit margin is greater?
Value Is EverythingThese are all interesting questions, Ginger.
The restrictions issue is being discussed on The Sunday Forum next weekend. Its all been done before of course, and without context and hard data, is a comparison to the Australian market worth anything at all?
Hi Ginge.
Good questions indeed. I didn’t know the answers so I put them to our Australian racing trader.
Until fairly recently, Australia only had the Tote but there are now five or six major Australian bookmakers including Ladbrokes and 365.
There are no concessions. No BPG, no sign-up offers, no extra places. No each-way. Win-only and place-only as per the Australian tote.
Prices seem fairly competitive but the overall offer is not as good as the package you get from UK firms when you factor in the concessions. We don’t have great visibility on the everyday Australian racing but RaceNet show their firms were betting to 123% on average for the 11-runner G1 Manikato Stakes the other day. Average overround of 120% on the Melbourne Cup on the day. Early prices typically available from final decs, rarely ante-post apart from the very best G1 races.
Does it then follow that if British bookmakers were made to guarantee “Lay To Lose”, they could do it. Just means they wouldn’t be able to offer “special offers” and also need to work to a slightly greater over-round? ie Fairer to all?
Think I’ll join the Conservative Party.
Value Is Everything
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