January 22, 2008 at 18:12 #137036
Dont think Sandown has any of the ‘shifty’ ground characteristcs on the chase course at all.
Is a fair point about the front runners but could argue Marodima was beaten so far he out he was one who failed to handle it.January 22, 2008 at 18:14 #137037
Point about shifty ground is some horses fail to handle it period.
As long as the ground shifts then some horses just do not seem to run any sort of race, and several of those that do fail to reproduce the run when back on conventional surface.January 22, 2008 at 18:23 #137040
Marodima is a notoriously hard puller and not for the first time he let his supporters down.
Twist Magic cruised into contention approaching the home straight simply to empty when oustayed by a better horse on the day.
I think it is dangerous to dismiss the Victor Chandler form. I didnt hear the same sources who are arguing Twist Magic was unlucky at Ascot (as a result of treacherous ground conditions) saying Voy Por Ustedes had excuses at Sandown (Cheltenham seasonal debut having taken a worse toll than connections realised).
Until Twist Magic wins the QM, the undecided among punters would do well to take the VC form at face value, especilally considering the finishing positions of Mansony and Hoo La Baloo in relation to Twist Magic.January 22, 2008 at 18:25 #137041ZosoMember
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I would combine Richards point about the shifty ground and the ground definitely was shifty, with the fact that Tamarinbleu has never been beaten when he has ran in January, the horses outstanding record at Ascot (3 wins from 4, only defeat coming after a race ending blunder) and Tom Scudamores outstanding record at Ascot (5 wins from 12 rides since 2007). Ascot suits front runners and the race was run to suit Pipes horse, all said it was a good performance and he jumped brilliantly.
Come the month of March and the Cheltenham festival I would certainly be siding with Twist Magic to beat Tamarinbleu and comfortably reverse the form.January 22, 2008 at 18:32 #137043
But surely if the ground inconvenienced Twist Magic how did he manage to travel into the race like a winner appraoching the home straight?
Granted, on better ground he may well be able to conserve more energy but even on a sound surface anything putting his stamina to the test at Cheltenham will seriously test his mettle.
With no such concerns about VPU staying the trip or acting on the track, I think his chances of reversing Sandown form with TM are as valid as TM reversing Ascot form with the Pipe horse.
On the day I will be backing VPU to win and Tamarinbleu as a place banker/saver. I will lay Twist for a win and also a place if the ground is soft.January 22, 2008 at 18:33 #137044
Personally always had doubts about Twist Magic getting home at Cheltenham so Tingle Creek was an expensive surprise.
I am not a particluar fan of his but would have big suspicionc about Tamarinbleu’s ability to reproduce the form espcially as liekly to be harried far more for the lead.
If he were mine I would definitely be going for the RyanAir and rightly or wrongly would be looking to lay him in QM even in a year where the division looks weak.January 22, 2008 at 18:39 #137046
I don’t disagree Tamarinbleu’s lead will be uncontested at Cheltenham. However I wouldn’t want to take him on just because he might not be improving at the fast rate of knots his Ascot voctory implies.
Looking down the card Another Promise at 33/1 is a forgotten horse and could be capable of springing a surprise for E/W and place players!January 22, 2008 at 20:01 #137066AnonymousInactive
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At this stage the RyanAir looks to have a strength in depth second only to the Gold Cup itself, and looks likely to take more winning than the Champion Chase.
If Tamarinbleu were mine, and the ground was anything like soft, there would be no hesitation in running him in the 2 miler, and with a favourite’s chance, imo.January 22, 2008 at 20:35 #137085davidjohnsonMember
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I wouldn’t be going out of my way to lay him at 10’s for the Champion Chase. Even a 165 run puts him bang there and arguably ahead of Twist Magic and Voy Por Ustedes.
Any news on Andreas yet?January 22, 2008 at 21:14 #137096
Opinions are what it is all about and the Ascot race has certainly livened up this division.
I very much hope Tamarinbleu does go for the two limer as sadly as dj has pointed out at the moment the uncertainty as to which race he goes for is making him too big to lay for the QM.
Personally reckon ground at Cheltenham certain to be more like Sandown than Ascot.
Stll not convinced Twist would see it out but reckon those conditions would see Tamarinbleu comfortably beaten.
As I say good fun to have opinions and stick your neck out !
An interesting thread and lets see how it looks as the evidence grows over time.January 23, 2008 at 00:16 #137142LetsGetRacingMember
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Does anyone know what the makeup of the surface is like at Ascot?
If you think about running on sand, it becomes all the easier when the surface is extremely wet. The sand is compressed and provides a firmer, more stable platform, but the ‘kickback’ we associate with soft and heavy turf is still prevalent. The same can be said of some dirt tracks in the US, where the very top of the track is seemingly loose but underneath it is sufficiently compact to provide quick racing conditions.
Could the same (I can’t really claim to be any sort of expert on soil, though I can’t say as I’d want to be able to ) possible be true of Ascot, either in parts or all over?January 23, 2008 at 04:58 #137152
Sand within a soil structure makes it unstable unless it is rolled as the reason it is so porous is the gaps between the grains.
Rolled sand gives a firm surface hence the fact that ‘sealed’ AW tracks ride faster in the wet whereas those left open and harrowed will ride slower when it is wet as they have to work the track deeper to disperse the water.January 23, 2008 at 07:26 #137160seabirdParticipant
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If, as has been reported, the ground was moving underfoot, should they have raced at Ascot on Saturday?
Wouldn’t that sort of ground be described as false and, as such, dangerous?
ColinJanuary 23, 2008 at 08:16 #137166AnonymousInactive
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Rolled sand gives a firm surface hence the fact that ‘sealed’ AW tracks ride faster in the wet whereas those left open and harrowed will ride slower when it is wet as they have to work the track deeper to disperse the water.
I’m not having a go Richard, and I supect it has little to do with the ground at Ascot but, in the interest of the AW fans on here, using the wet beach analogy, surely even harrowed wet sand would ride appreciably faster than any form of dry?January 23, 2008 at 16:10 #137275DroneParticipant
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It strikes me that Ascot and to a lesser degree York seem to replicate these conditions in wet weather so I must surmise they have a higher than average sand content in the soil.
Very little sand in the Knavesmire’s soil; it’s described as a silty-clay loam i.e not as heavy as a pure clay soil but a long way removed from a sandy loam and other lighter soils. The soil is deep and while the structure has been generally good up until recent years it’s now begun to suffer compaction and easy waterlogging; hence the extensive seven-month drainage work due to begin after the Ebor meeting
Regarding Ascot: I’m as confused as anyone about the apparent fast time of the VC. Can only assume the sample size from which the standard time is derived is not large enough to be robust.
Anyone considered the possible modifying effects of wind speed and direction, both on saturday’s race and those few (since reopening) from which the standards have been compiled?
And – in quantifiable terms – just what effect does missing out a fence have on time?
Surely not as straightforward a matter as rationalising it away akin to: because Tamarinbleu won in a time similar to that of Bleu Superbe over CD in December on official GF, then either the going on Saturday wasn’t soft, or Tamarinbleu put up a spectacular time performance.
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