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With Kyprios out is it just another Coolmore winner with Illnois ?
What did we make of Candelari at the week end?Looks a four horse race, nwalton.
Candelari certainly impressed at the weekend. Not got much experience though and is yet to race at 2 miles. That said, those things do mean he has more scope for improvement. Officially yet to race on a firmish surface. But (yet again) two races beat Racing Post Standard on Sunday’s card, so I would not anticipate the ground being a problem. In fact, the firmer it is the more likely Candelari is of staying / running to his best.
Trawlerman is in the hunt. I wouldn’t worry about the long time off because he goes well fresh (and loves Ascot). Although being a 7 year old means at some point soon he’ll be on the decline.
Defection of Kyprios makes things more competitive. Coolmore were going to protect his reputation by not taking him on. St Leger stablemate one / two Jan and Illinois come into consideration. imo Illinois would have beaten Jan Brueghel with a better ride at Doncaster and is the more likely to stay this extreme trip. Jan maybe the less experienced so has hope of improvement, but Illinois is a big brute – type to make a better 4yo. They are both in the Corry Cup though… And Jan is a lot shorter for that than Illinois… And with not much time between the two races I doubt they’d run in both. So Illinois is probably the one for this…
6/4 could be argued is good value. But with the chance of being a non-runner 6/4 is seldom worth taking ante-post unless believing he’ll start odds-on… And imo if Candelari comes over Illinois won’t start odds-on.
Value Is EverythingYou probably know GT but Trawlerman is in at Sandown Thursday night
I liked the way the rode Candelari on Sunday closer to the pace than usual
You do AP far better than me, even after 50+ years just cant get the hang of it
I wasn’t aware Trawlerman was running at Sandown. tbh Ante-post-wise If anything it puts me off his chance for Ascot. I’ll probably wait until the day now as far as he is concerned. With his last four runs all coming after a lot longer breaks than he’ll get between the Henry II and Gold Cup… Is Trawlerman susceptible to getting slight injuries from his races that keep him off the track?
Maybe connections think he’ll need the race (on Thursday) more than he usually does? Generally – in my experience – the older a horse gets the more it’s likely to need a run. Or maybe the Gosdens just want to win a race. Although has run some great races in defeat, Trawlerman hasn’t won anything since 2023 and is 7 years old – time is running out.Value Is EverythingI also think the older horses might find this tough so taking a chance on…
Jan Brueghel – 6/1 – EW
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Will illinois stay well enough. Nobody knows. I think the French horse ew the bet for me.
FYI – There is no Ascot Gold Cup, like there’s no Epsom Derby; it’s simply The Gold Cup.
The Royal Thursday Gold Cup is a decent race this year, I like what Illinois and Trawlerman bring to the table but I have to take a little chance on Candelari at 7/2. I thought it was an ‘arf decent price for what is essentially the only group 1 winner in the field.
Sweet William looks big price at 9’s
Was 6/1 last night, has a leg fallen off?Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Get the feeling this will be a more tactically run race and might strangely come down to which horse has the (relatively) better turn of foot than stamina.
Only 3 have run over the trip before in Trawlerman, Sweet William and Coltrane – Sweet William is a confirmed hold up horse whilst the other two could go from the front but I doubt either will run the risk of sacrificing themselves by making it a real true test and Illinois you could easily see Ryan also trying to dictate a slowish gallop from the front and then quickening off the turn.
The French horse is the big unknown for me both at the trip (has won just short of 2m) and on the ground, three wins have come on Chantill’s A/W track and one on good to soft (although the time for that race was slow by just 0.79s which indicates maybe it was not far off actual good to firm ground).
Will take a chance with him.
Hardly a vintage renewal and questions on who’ll stay so I’ll go with Coltrane e.w with Murphy up
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
“Will illinois stay well enough.”
I reckon so. The fact that they haven’t run Jan Brueghel in this and relying on Illinois to be ‘the new Kyprios’, connections must think he’ll stay just fine.
“Only 3 have run over the trip before in Trawlerman, Sweet William and Coltrane – Sweet William is a confirmed hold up horse whilst the other two could go from the front but I doubt either will run the risk of sacrificing themselves by making it a real true test and Illinois you could easily see Ryan also trying to dictate a slowish gallop from the front and then quickening off the turn.’
I’d imagine Illinois will not be up front early as he’s new to the trip. Trawlerman making it and making use of his stamina wouldn’t surprise me.
Why would they run jan brueghel in this Mike? Not sure thats a reason to use for Illinois being better value
Its a no bet race for me, but sweet william e/w is probably where id go, dubai future e/w at 33/1 is also half tempting in a poor renewal
As an observation on the recentish trends, it seems to be a tough race to come and win as an older (than 4) horse unless you’ve done it before and are established as the best in the division – Kyprios & Stradivarius. Big Orange won it at 6 but it was his first try in the race and he’d won the Goodwood Cup the year before so was established as a Group 1 winning stayer. Everybody else going back as far as 2011 were 4 year olds. On paper it looks a tough ask for one of the older horses to take a Group 1 today having been unable in the past but it doesn’t look the strongest so perhaps one of them can buck the trend.
“Why would they run jan brueghel in this Mike? Not sure thats a reason to use for Illinois being better value”
Because I felt he would’ve been suited for this race so the fact they brought him back him in trip for Epsom and not run here tells me they must think Illinois will stay. They don’t get it wrong too offen.
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