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My selections for GOLD CUP:
TO WIN:TASTAHIL
EACH WAY:
OPINION POLL
Good luck !!!
http://www.kristpicks.com/I think Fame And Glory is an excellent price at 5/2. If he stays, he wins, surely? Imo he’s got a better than 5/2 chance of staying!
Perhaps he’ll fold at the 2f marker but at the price he’s worth backing.
ground should be nice for f&g.
personally don’t think he is competitive enough for 1m2f – 1m4f races this year, guess thats why aob is stepping him up.
Nothing visually in his two runs this season to suggest Fame And Glory will get two and half miles anywhere, never mind a strongly run two and a half miles at a ball breaker like Ascot.
On top of that on my stats over 20 furlongs at Ascot, I have 77 horses who ran at less than two miles last time out and returned a speed figure below par for that class of race, winning just 3 times to give a strike rate of just 3.9% and a loss of almost 40% at BFSP. Fame and Glory qualifies today. Very happy to lay him.
I backed Fame And Glory at 5/1 anti-post, thought he had a good chance of staying the trip (at least on a firm surface. But he’s a terrible price this morning in my opinion. Disappointed me last time out and wonder if he’s still got the same ability. Laid it back last night at 3 (2.1/1). I make him a fair 100/30 shot today.
Duncan won’t stay unless able to set a funereal pace.
Holberg has doubts about both trip and ground though has ability.
Manighar acts on the ground but will he stay?
Kasbah Bliss acts on the ground and stays, but is he as good these days?
Geordieland is thought best on firmer ground though possibly best temperament-wise fresh, but is this too fresh?
Askar Tau is probably best in small fields, hates being knocked about amongst horses. Fair chance for an outsider, if putting it all in.Blue Bajan
is improving even at his age and acts well on the ground. Value bet saver.
Tastahil
has done well on the ground and is probably over-priced. Saver bet.
Motrice
looked an out and out stayer who now has his chance at an extreme distance. Seems good value if fit enough. Half a bet.
By far the outstanding value though in my opinion is
Opinion Poll
. Been looking out for this horse to run at an extreme trip on a soft surface. If the official good-soft soft in places is correct even the now 16/1 looks cracking value. I’d make him around a true 6/1 on that ground. Bet with a capital B.
Value Is EverythingHope it’s a properly run 2m4f – I’m not convinced that every Gold Cup is always run as stamina test.
Kasbah Bliss might win if they stick 10 flights of hurdles in.
I’ve have thought that they might pull Kasbah Bliss out. Holberg too maybe. Neither like soft ground.
With the rain arriving i have taken small EW Aim to Prosper who will stay and love the ground and also Tastahil.
My ante post bet was Opinion Poll at 25s but WIN only, feel rather stupid now as he may run a good race without winning
Holberg was 6th in a Melbourne Cup on Soft ground and was hardly disgraced on Gd/Sft LTO so I don’t think the softening ground is against him as much as some of the others.
The proven stayers seem to be either past their best or not good enough, so a bit of guesswork is required to find a horse capable of staying the 2 1/2 miles.
None of the field are bred to do so, but then very few horses ever are.
I’ve gone ew on Brigantin, without a great deal of confidence, but he might have a bit of improvement in him. Perhaps Manighar and Fame and Glory will follow him home.
Because he is the best horse in the race and i have a nice bet on him.
The rest are all useless and are not in F+G league
Rather than not staying, Fame And Glory appears to have improved for the trip with a mightily impressive win. That was as simple as ABC for Jamie Spencer. It’s a pity that Right Of Passage didn’t contest the race because then we would have a better handle on the form, but one cannot help but be impressed with that.
Not too sure what the wonder kid was doing on the second. Maybe he couldn’t have beaten the winner but not the best idea to allow him fifteen lengths start plus all the traffic problems that are almost inevitable coming from so far back.
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