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A few quotes:
Coral odds compiler James Knight “Waiting Patiently isn’t far off being the best chaser in training”.
Paul Nicholls “Visually it looked a very well-run race…Cue Card was magnificent…well done to Colin Tizzard for getting him back to run that well…I was delighted with Frodon after he over-raced”.
Gordon Elliott “Cue Card…showed he retains plenty of ability”.
Tim Vaughan “lovely to see Cue Card bounce back to form. He ran his race”.
Charlie Deutsch “an absolutely brilliant run by Cue Card as he showed all his old zip”.If I’m crazy or over-imaginative then so are the above who are all inside the game.
Then we have the issue of pace/time. Always the best comparison is with races on the same card. Just using the race winners’ Topspeed Ratings those ratings are in chronological order: 75, 77, 107, 93, 157, 86, 46.
Should you really take as much notice of what trainers say though GM?
You seem to want to take notice of trainers in one way – believing Cue Card somewhere near his best. Yet wishing to take Frodon as the horse to rate the race around – despite having (as Nicholls says) “over-raced” and Frost saying she overdid the prominent tactics.James Knight saying “Waiting Patiently isn’t far off being the best chaser in training”, could be said to be similar to Timeform’s; even though their rating is way short of yours. ie Waiting Patiently is Timeform 171p (the “p” being for “likely to improve on that rating”) and only needs to improve another 5 lbs to go ahead of Altior 175p. Only two horses between the two and neither of those has a “p”… and the only horse above Altior is Douvan on 182. However, his rating is increasingly suspect after injury and a long time off the course. Personally, if in charge of ratings at Timeform I’d add a question mark, 182? …And if going for the Champion Chase without a run take the rating away completely like they’ve now done with Yorkhill, just a “?”.
Even Altior’s “p” is more questionable after the wind op – didn’t need to be at his best on reappearance. There’s no doubt Waiting Patiently deserves the “p” looking at this season’s form. If as expected that progress continues (especially under similar conditions to those he’s been facing) it’s entirely possible Waiting Patiently will be rated “best chaser in training” in GB&I come the end of the season.Value Is EverythingYeah, but OR’s tend to be half a stone below RPRs, probably because the latter rate single performances while the handicapper’s is more a master rating. Timeform is similar to the handicapper and have awarded WP 171p (the p is for prevaricate!)
As a guide: Only one of Timeform’s top 20 chasers has a Timeform Master Rating lower than the Official Rating, and that only by 1. Timeform’s top 20 are on average rated 2.75 ahead of OR’s, with generally those at the top being furthest apart.
Value Is EverythingWhat I am getting at GM, is that Top Notch is the sort of horse that normally travels well through the early and mid stages of races – whatever race he’s involved in. Even when the going is good (when conditions mean the pace is normally faster) Top Notch usually travels well. That’s him; he does not normally go through his races like he did on Saturday. Yes, this race was run at a fast pace compared to others on the same soft ground card, but not compared to races earlier in Top Notch’s season/career. Normally shows far more speed early. Therefore, the fact Top Notch was never travelling with his usual elan on Saturday can not mean he failed due to not having the pace – we know he does… And we also know from previous efforts Top Notch is (or is near nigh) as effective on soft as he is good. Therefore, we know the way he travelled can not have anything to do with the going either. So there must be a different reason or just a bad day at the office.
We are agreed that Top Notch basically handles any alike, however, you are making a fundamental error, Ginger! Yes, when the going is Good the horse is moving at a faster speed but that is due to assistance from the surface. Relative to the going the pace on Soft on Saturday was much quicker than the pace relative to the going in any of TN’s races on better ground, albeit that on the better ground TN is actually travelling faster. On Saturday because the relative pace was quicker the horse was unable to travel as well as in Grade 2 chases, got out of his comfort zone and started to make niggly errors.
Well, whatever the range of numbers used by various entities I’m adamant the performances in the race have been underrated by about half a stone. It was billed as the race of the season, lived up to that, the pace/time was outstanding and the reaction of many inside the game is more favourable than that of those paid to put figures on the race.
You’re making two fundamental errors GM.
First is in thinking Top Notch hasn’t shown his best in other Grade 1’s just because he’s beaten doesn’t mean the performance put up is any worse. As I said, Top Notch achieved his best three Timeform ratings over hurdles in Grade 1’s (when beaten). They also have his best novice chase rating coming in a Group 1 (when beaten). ie Judging by his previous record in Group 1’s, there is no reason why he should be so far below his best in the Grade 1 on Saturday – even if beaten.
Second fundamental error is believing he was outpaced just because the overall time is “fast”. When there’s a “fast overall time” it invariably means the actual top speed in the race is in fact slower than races with a “slower overall time”. ie Fast overall times are produced when the pace is the same throughout. Where as although slow early fractions result in slow overall times, the horses actually have a faster top speed, because a slow pace enables horses to have more energy/speed left for the finish. Fact is Top Notch has travelled well off all types of pace. He’s quickened (not been outpaced) off slower run fractions, showing a faster top speed than Saturday (including when the going has been similar to Saturday). So to say he was “uable to travel” due to the pace of the race can not be true.
When a horse actually lacks speed and needs to be scrubbed along throughout, the type of race I look out for are those likely to be strongly run affairs. Going the same pace throughout means they don’t quicken and the top speed is therefore less. True, a one paced horse might be outpaced at some point before staying on to win… But Top Notch is not that type, he is not usually “scrubbed along”, that’s why the fact he invariably travels well is so important in assessing the run. Proven in the past to have more than enough speed for this type of pace/race (whatever the going). Just didn’t show it on Saturday and a fair bit below his best.
Had TN travelled well before giving best over the last two, I could’ve believed the run, but that didn’t happen.
Value Is EverythingAs a punter, Top Notch is patently not a top G1 horse. He’s a very good horse indeed, but put him up against the real ‘top notchers’… Well, every time he’s just not a G1 horse.
I love him, he’s so enthusiastic, everything you want to see in a top NH horse. But just short of absolute top class. I’d say he pretty much ran to form, form that was just not good enough in a race run at a fast pace, against two real ‘top notchers’.
I’d agree with (I think it was GM’s) previous comments, Top Notch was out of his comfort zone.
Great run from Cue Card, I was willing him to win. I’d say he ran up to very near his best.
WP is a great horse. He’s going right to the very top of the tree IMO. Watch out Might Bite & co.
I agree Top Notch is inferior to Waiting Patiently and Cue Card, but no way is he 20 lengths inferior, Nausered.
Value Is EverythingI disagree GT. I’d bet if TN faced CC & WP again, in a same scenario fast run G1 race… He’ll get beaten 20 lengths every time.
The difference between him being able to run all over a grade 2 field, and run the same sort of race, when he is being taken right out of his comfort zone, by better horses, is vast.
In a fast run G1 chase against top notchers, TN is shown to be a Grade 2 animal.
He had his supporters on Sat, he was seemingly improving still this year, but when the G1 acid test came, he failed like he has done before. WP had his very first chance in the big time on Sat, in a very truly run G1 race, he passed the test with flying colours, despite not jumping nearly as well as he can. TN’s improving bubble was burst a touch.
WP will win a gold cup/KG, TN would not get within 20l of any winner of those races IMO.
Top Notch travelled on Saturday pretty much the way he usually does. He’s not one that ever looks to be hard on the bridle and Jacob’s usual quiet seat gives little away anyway, until the chips are down.
His fencing was sloppy. He’s a touch stiff-backed and, as at Aintree last year, he wasn’t getting his back end high enough at quite a few fences. That will always be a weakness in events of this quality and pace. He isn’t up to this level, his lack of physical scope not helping.
He had his supporters on Sat, he was seemingly improving still this year, but when the G1 acid test came, he failed like he has done before.
Have a great respect for your Racing Knowledge Nausered, but that makes no sense to me.
“when the G1 acid test came, he failed like he has done before”? When has he failed like that before in a Grade 1?
In the Grade 1 JLT Top Notch finished just 1 length behind Yorkhill and had he not made an uncharacteristic late error it would probably have been closer. If TN “failed like he has done before”, that would put Waiting Patiently (even if TN has not improved since) 19 lengths in front of a Yorkhill at his best! Disko was 3 lengths behind TN, it would also put WP 23 lengths in front of Disko. Top Notch didn’t do too badly in that “Grade 1” did he?
Got within 9 1/2 lengths of Annie Power in a strongly run Grade 1 acid test of the Champion Hurdle over a shorter trip than Saturday, yet beaten 20 lengths by Waiting Patiently. If TN “failed like he has done before”, that would put Waiting Patiently an 11 1/2 lengths better horse than Annie Power (wfs allowed).
Came just a neck second to Identity Thief in the Grade 1 acid test of the Fighting Fifth on similar ground to Saturday. Next time out Identity Thief was only beaten 2 lengths by Nichols Canyon in a Grade 1, only going down after a battle. If TN “failed like he has done before”, that would put Waiting Patiently a 19 3/4 lengths better horse than Identity Thief and 17 3/4 lengths better than Nichols Canyon.
Top Notch may not be a real top notcher, but it’s surely obvious this performance is nothing like what Top Notch has produced in other Grade 1’s.
Value Is EverythingI agree with what Nausered says.
Ginger, why would you think I allow whether a horse wins or is beaten to affect my numerical assessment of a performance?
As I said before, we’re talking about Top Notch as a chaser not a hurdler. I’m perfectly happy to accept his RPR of 171 for the November G2 at Ascot. His best G1 chase RPR is 165. My RPR-based view of his performance on Saturday is 162 – he didn’t run much below his best G1 chase effort.
Saturday’s time was fast AND the pace was fast from the outset too, Speredek a decent 2m front-runner couldn’t get to the lead until the 7th. Frost cost Frodon half a stone by vying with Cue Card for 4 fences. TN held a similar position to Waiting Patiently but even though the speed of the horses, inevitably, towards the finish wasn’t as rapid as at the start TN couldn’t stay on like WP did. The overall quickness sapped him and exposed him again in a G1 as not being very top class over fences.
The fact that CC could set the fast early pace and keep on as he did for pressure marks his performance as being near his best, worthy of a 178 RPR with WP at 181. (P.S. 181 is a figure Might Bite and Altior are capable of achieving).
But neither got that figure lol so they didnt deserve it….
The ratings are published and finalised, why are we still saying it was worthy of 180 etc, it wasnt, he didnt get it…. what more is there to say on this matter
Is he capable of 180? Maybe, probably not though(imo)
Nicky Henderson said that he thought Top Notch was a bit flat on Saturday. So a better performance next time cant be ruled out.
As I said before, we’re talking about Top Notch as a chaser not a hurdler. I’m perfectly happy to accept his RPR of 171 for the November G2 at Ascot. His best G1 chase RPR is 165. My RPR-based view of his performance on Saturday is 162 – he didn’t run much below his best G1 chase effort.
Yes, we’re talking about Top Notch as a chaser GM…
That “best G1 chase RPR of 165” was up to that point in time Top Notch’s best RPR in any chase. As was the 160 in the G1 Scilly Isles in his race before up to that point his best chase RPR.It’s what Novice chasers do, improving with racing. Horses also usually improve in their second season. Which in all probability is why Top Notch put up a better performance of 171 in November of this, his second season.
How can you reasonably expect him to put up better RPRs than 165 in the G1 JLT and 160 in the G1 Scilly Isles at those particular times?
Value Is EverythingBecause, as I said earlier, his best hurdles RPR was 160 and I would expect/hope a hurdler going novice chasing to put up 170 in his/her first season over the larger obstacles. This is based on my observations of RPRs, 10 better is just a rough guide. I’ve noticed that this difference between hurdling and chasing ratings seems less prevalent for Irish-trained horses. As I alluded to previously, many hurdlers may be chasing types (though not necessarily Top Notch which would explain his Grade 1 deficiency over fences) and most horses are young enough when switched to chasing to still be improving and maturing so that may explain why chase ratings are higher. However, some horses remain specialist hurdlers so it does not explain why the figures (ignoring the ridiculous and highly errant ones for Arkle and Flyingbolt) for the best chasers in the Timeform era range from 192 down yet the top rated hurdler, Night Nurse, is 182. It’s as if the ratings base for chasers is automatically +10 over that for hurdlers.
I never understand the arguments over ratings for G1 horses. They wont be going handicapping, so really what does it matter. Ok for some in this race handicapping is clearly the way forward, but is Cue Card ever going to line up against WP in a handicap?
IMHO i think in a years time the form of this race is going to look incredible. Think WP is the real deal and hope from a selfish point of view we get to see him at Cheltenham, but understand it may be more prudent to skip it and go to Aintree.
Completely agree with Nausered, Top Notch is always going to find 1, 2 or a few too good in good G1 company. Dont get me wrong a very, very good horse indeed, but perhapsjust a touch not good enough.
All very interesting, GM; I may come back to your figures another day, though it has nothing to do with my question. Sorry if you did not understand my meaning.
As my post implies, the question was about your belief (in the paragraph below) that Top Notch has run below his Grade 2 form previously when running in Grade 1’s.
You said:
“We’re talking about Top Notch as a chaser not a hurdler. I’m perfectly happy to accept his RPR of 171 for the November G2 at Ascot. His best G1 chase RPR is 165. My RPR-based view of his performance on Saturday is 162 – he didn’t run much below his best G1 chase effort”.You imply the Ascot Chase poor performance is due to the fact Top Notch’s “best G1 chase RPR is 165” compared to the “RPR of 171 for the November G2 at Ascot”.
Your comparisson is an unfair one, because the GRADE 1 165 performance was – AT THAT TIME – a career best chase rating. As was his previous GRADE 1 win – AT THAT TIME – a career best chase rating. Whatever you or I or anyone may think of TN’s overall level of ability he has been progressive – as most chasers are in their first two seasons. It is only natural that any chaser improves its rating.
ie How can you reasonably expect the progressive chaser Top Notch’s best rating to come at the start or middle of that progression? It wouldn’t make sense.
To avoid any confusion I’ll put my question in different words:
G1 Scilly Isles, G1 JLT and G2 1965 Chase were all career bests. It is therefore surely reasonable to conclude it is much more likely he achieved 160 in the G1 Scilly Isles, then 165 in the G1 JLT (both last season) and then 171 in the G2 1965 Chase in November (this season) due to the horse’s NATURAL PROGRESSION – not as you suggest due to the different Grades?Value Is Everything
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