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Knocking bet, TAPK. I was suitably impressed with him yesterday, but do you honestly believe he will even get UDS off the bridle? Vibrato Valtat was rated 21lbs interior to UDS over timber – but you would be happy if you’re holding a tasty ew voucher, as they’ll probably be no more than 7 runners in the Arkle.
Not wanting to piss on your chips but VV is fruitless from 3 trips to Prestbury. Best of luck with the bet though.
Un De Seaux has been winning soft ground races with no real pressure on him and with a relatively easy lead. There are a couple of races he has won by under a length which suggest he is not the greatest horse in the history of 2m chasing and that is enough for me to take him on at Cheltenham at the prices. If he’s a 170 horse and wins at Cheltenham then fine, too good, but until he proves it I’ll take him on.
Totally agree on value grounds, IBRacing, about UDS being remotely a betting proposition. I don’t by the easy lead part though as no other horse has the cruising speed to go with him and if they do the likelihood is that they’ll drop like a stone when it comes to the business end.
Totally agree on value grounds, IBRacing, about UDS being remotely a betting proposition. I don’t by the easy lead part though as no other horse has the cruising speed to go with him and if they do the likelihood is that they’ll drop like a stone when it comes to the business end.
You may be right. I don’t buy the no other horse has the speed to go with him thing though, if that’s the case he will be leagues above.
Usually it is a case of a horse getting a soft lead and not having his stamina pressurised by horses within his class. Only if he’s a league above will he get away with that type of thing, especially at the festival.
Knocking bet, TAPK. I was suitably impressed with him yesterday, but do you honestly believe he will even get UDS off the bridle? Vibrato Valtat was rated 21lbs interior to UDS over timber – but you would be happy if you’re holding a tasty ew voucher, as they’ll probably be no more than 7 runners in the Arkle.
Not wanting to piss on your chips but VV is fruitless from 3 trips to Prestbury. Best of luck with the bet though.
Couteau,
Vibrato Valtat
first caught my eye when he was beaten by a horse I rate highly in
Vaniteaux
well over a year ago,he’s always been a good traveller,I like those sorts but he definitely wasn’t the finished article,mentally and physically.I backed him to beat ‘Dunraven Storm’ around Cheltenham in November and Sam rode him like an idiot,I told him so on Twitter,many jumped to his defense saying the horse was a jibber.He met ‘Dunraven Storm’on their very next outing on revised terms to suit my horse and avenged the defeat,albeit with Noel riding this time.Ladbrokes still went 20/1 about his arkle chances when others went 14/1..Lovely!Sam wrote in his column yesterday how badly he rode him around Cheltenham so fair play to him,he rode him with confidence around Warwick and he’ll need to do the same when this Irish wonder horse goes tearing off round Prestbury park in March.’Un des Sceaux’ has one way of running and thats fast,he jumps cleanly on the whole but he wont have faced a course like Cheltenham.
Vibrato Valtat
doesn’t jump brilliantly but it doesn’t affect him he lands and is quickly back on the bridle,in an ideal world Ruby will have a length on Sam over the last and both will sprint up the hill,I’d expect both to have blundered a couple of fences by then so it will be who’s wanting it most.The ‘Vibrato’ of old would chuck the towel in but he’s a different horse now and for a 6yo he aint finished improving.It has the makings of a great duel as there isn’t another horse to bother them.
Finally, finally, finally, the bookies have taken Vautour out of the betting for this race.
I could’t believe he was sitting as low as 4/1 with one firm last night.
Gord’s bet looks solid and could be a fall away from a big pay day.
At the odds I think Three Kingdoms is worthy of a fun each-way bet. He has won three of his four chases and although the form is nothing startling, he has beaten Thomas Crapper, who is fancied by some this week. The main reason for the bet though is that he ran Vibrato Valtat to half a length when they met at Kempton. Whatever you wish to say about the Nicholls horse since then, it is still no mean feat to have been that close to the second favourite for this race.
Three Kingdoms seemed a bit outpaced that day but he rallied and kept on well in a manner that would suggest Cheltenham may suit him better.
I feel 25/1 is decent value for a race where it may suddenly end up a whole lot more open should the hot favourite get a bit carried away and clout one early.
Sporting selection Three Kingdoms each-way 25/1
Good luck Gord, I love a bit of foresight!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Much as I dislike wishing horses on the floor I don’t think the favourite will jump round without at least one serious error!!! It has to be VV or Jossies Hill for me with the caveat that VV could be ubreliable and Jossies Hill could be undone by his jumping. Sounds like I am talking myself out of a bet but PP is the place to go cos if I am wrong about the fav then I can get my money back.
Managed to nick 4/1 on Un De Sceaux back in November in a multiple bet so am obviously delighted with that! One I feel could go well at a decent price though is Court Minstrel…in a race packed with early pace I can see Paul Moloney switching him off out the back and picking up any pieces through beaten horses late on….won nicely here back in October and is definitely one who will prefer the better ground…
Good luck, Gord. Anything that jumps round Warwick as a novice twice in one season should skip round Cheltenham. So many are expressing the same views about the jumping of the headstrong UDS, I can see him drifting.
Have backed VV ew, and will add Clarcam who I think could cause an upset. Ground should suit him.
Have been on Josses Hill @ 12/1 since April, before he saw a fence.
Looked a chaser in the making but unfortunately doesn’t seem to be able to jump. That said, if things do come together has more scope to make a top novice than all but the favourite. If wasn’t on already 14/1 appears a good enough price to take a chance on jumping with Henderson in good form. Goodish ground and a return to 2 miles in his favour too.Favourite Un De Sceaux should be odds on such is his ability, but he’s been a soft ground performer in Ireland and had the ability to run at Cheltenham previous years and wasn’t brought over. Said to be one that can get a bit het up beforehand. If I backed him it would need to be just before the off and after I’ve timed the first race. Genuine good going might be against him.
On form Vibrato Valtat is the obvious each way bet to nothing, but like the favourite may not be the ideal Cheltenham type temperament-wise. Hasn’t found a great deal up the hill in the past. Although betting now takes that in to account and last time out was more encouraging; albeit in a less demanding enviroment.
The rest have similar form.
Clarcam and Smashing have already been smashed by the fav, place claims but unlikely to improve significantly.
Gods Own probably has the second best form (with Balder Success) but has lost his form on very soft ground, not a bad price to bounce back on this better surface. However, is thought best right handed.
Sail By The Sea hasn’t had much racing and all on very soft ground. Needs to be far better than he was over hurdles.
Sgt Reckless has a placed effort over hurdles here, has had a sgt strange run up to this, one chase (impressive) then a hurdle and flat race. Not much chase experience, been done before but he’s no Well Chief.
Dunraven Storm has had a break after a poor effort. Some good efforts including beating Vibrato Valtat at Cheltenham, but given a good ride there (unlike the Nicholls horse). With UDS in the line up unlikely to get a soft lead here.
I’ve backed a couple of outsiders each way. Three Kingdoms ran Vibrato Valtat to 1/2 length in the Wayward Lad at Kempton. As Steve says, that horse improved since, but difference in odds is hard to fathom nonetheless. Three Kingdoms would probably have showed improved form himself without a bad mistake in straight last time. AP rides and trainer Furgeson in good form. 25/1 looks good to me.
The other is Court Minstral. Ignore the run last time out on soft ground and he’d be two from two (at a lesser level). Has top handicap hurdle form. Has more speed than many of these and could be able to lay the win part off at some stage. Hold up horse who might be able to pick up the pieces. 33/1 is too big to ignore.
Value Is EverythingI am leaving the Un De Sceaux debate to braver judges of jumping and taking Three Kingdoms in the ‘betting without’ market. I suppose if you were against Un De Sceaux, the withdrawal of potential hustler Top Gamble must be upsetting.
There seems to be an odd disparity in prices between Vibrato Valtat and Three Kingdoms. VV only just fended off Three Kingdoms at Kempton, with the line coming just before he had the chance to give the race away. With a stronger pace and a more testing track, Three Kingdoms would have readily turned the form around. Like several Arkle winners, Three Kingdoms stays further than two miles and looks like a cracking play either in the each-way or ‘betting without UDS‘ market. I’ve done the latter. I would make him favourite in a match bet with Vibrato Valtat.
This could be a strange tactical race and jockeys in the peloton will have to make brave decisions. Do they race for second or do they try to win? Vibrato Valtat and Josses Hill will have have to be in the fight for victory, but hopefully AP is wise enough to let his horse’s stamina pick off those who get spat out by UDS.
With that in mind, I can understand the support for extreme hold-up horses like Smashing and Sgt Reckless as well.
Vibrato Valtat each-way looks like the muggiest bet in the race to me.
Paul Nicholls is 0 for his last 77 with chasers at the Festival. Who am I to be sure that number 78 will end the drought????
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