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Hi everyone, long time reader first time poster. Thought i’d get involved this year in the build up to the festival.
http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd? … category=0
Fever hardens as Arkle favourite after weekendBy Peter Scargill 6:09PM 26 JAN 2014
CHAMPAGNE FEVER emerged from the weekend in a stronger position at the head of the Racing Post Arkle market despite not setting foot on a racecourse and his trainer Willie Mullins is edging towards the 2m contest for his dual Cheltenham Festival winner.
Arkle betting
A number of potential contenders for the Racing Post Arkle were in action on Saturday and Sunday but bookmakers were left shortening Champagne Fever for victory at Cheltenham following the defeats of Defy Logic and Felix Yonger as well as the non-appearance of Rock On Ruby at Doncaster due to the ground.Paddy Power cut Champagne Fever, winner of the Champion Bumper in 2012 and the Supreme Novices’s Hurdle last year, to 5-1 (from 7) for the Arkle while he is 4-1 (from 9-2) with William Hill and Ladbrokes and 9-2 (from 5) with bet365.
Felix Yonger, who finished second to Trifolium in the Irish Arkle at Leopardstown, was pushed out to a general 10-1 (from 7) for the Racing Post Arkle while stablemate Mozoltov is 20-1 (from 16) for the same race after finishing third at Leopardstown.
Assessing his runners, Mullins told At The Races: "I don’t think Felix Yonger likes that [heavy] ground. He’s a good ground horse. I remember when he first came from Howard Johnson’s that he was one of the best athletes.
"Mozoltov ran a cracker on only his second start over fences. Both will go up in trip now as they both want two and a half miles.
"Champagne Fever runs next in the Dr PJ Moriarty Chase over two miles five [furlongs] on February 9. Ruby [Walsh] is fairly keen to bring him back to two miles for the Arkle."
The biggest mover in the Racing Post Arkle market was Trifolium, who is a general 8-1 chance (from 25) while Valdez is 12-1 (from 16) after his victory in the Lightning Novices’ Chase at Doncaster on Saturday.
very happy if Champagne goes arkle, ive been chipping away ante post for a while now
I love this race – part of a tremendous first day’s racing – but i’m changing my mind on the likeliest winner every few days.
Champagne Fever
– obviously could win but i think the old Jewson would be the better race, unless the ground on the opening day is testing. I think it’s better to focus on a top class horse with this as it’s sole target and there are several of those.
Defy Logic
– the Nolan factor is impossible to ignore. His stable form at times is horrific and it’s questionable if he can be relied upon to have a horse ready for the big race : in the last two years he’s had only one winner in each March, with a strike rate of 5-6%. General late Winter, Spring form is very poor. Not sure how he attracts owners with only 1-2 winners every couple of months. The horse itself broke a blood vessel recently. I’ve all but written it off completely.
Dodging Bullets
– I really like this horse and was hoping it would do better in the Supreme. Good solid form including at the course. Looks likely to play a major part. Tends to run better in late Autumn, early Winter though.
Felix Yonger
– same target doubts as Champagne Fever and not quiet sure what his best trip is. Tends to make mistakes though that might prevent it from winning what looks like a first class renewal.
Fox Appeal
Admirable horse with good form but doubt he has the class to win this and another prone to mistakes.
Grandouet
Obviously talented but now frustrating. Strange that he’s only raced right handed over fences. Might place but difficult to see him winning.
Hinterland
a second season novice and improving but another who seems just below top class. Stable seem to have a likelier type in DB.
Rock On Ruby
Obviously one of the best horses in the race but i’d have liked to have seen him tested with more than a veritable walkover at Plumpton. Well Chief had one run at Taunton prior to his Arkle but i think i’d need to see RR tested before backing him in this.
Valdez
looks a cracking chaser and has posted some very good figures in his races this season. Trainer and jockey struggling for winners but maybe this indicates that the horses form will improve further when the stable recovers ?
a couple of other horses i expect to run elsewhere.
I’m Dodging Bullets at the moment
Interesting quote from Paul Nolan regarding Defy Logic:
"Burst blood vessel in the Arkle at Leopardstown on Sunday. He likes to jump and go on at his own gallop and anyone taking him on suits him. He’s the best we have ever had, easily, by a long ways, from a long time ago and we are just so glad he proved that at Christmas and I don’t think it was any accident."
Wouldn’t write him off just yet.
The only positive to take from it is that there was a genuine reason for the bad run. You’d always fear it could happen again though. I thought Trifolium had the run of the race last time and he couldn’t get to him so if on song Defy Logic is still a leading player without doubt.
Maybe it’s just me but I’m never overly confident with McCoy up in two mile chases
Mark Walsh is a quieter rider and I’d prefer him on a horse like Defy Logic who likes to get on with things.Could be I’ve never gotten over Captain Cee Bee bursting in the Arkle four years ago
McCoy has ridden him three times and has lost each time, Walsh seems to get a much better tune out of him for sure. His win time before last was very good and I see him as a big player come March. The Irish definitely hold the key for me?
Defy Logic out for the season.
I think this will signal Champagne Fever as a definate for the Arkle. With DL out of the way, the pace won’t be Kama-Kazi like at Leopardstown and CF should be able to bowl along nicely at a good clip without being harried. I don’t buy that he’s not a good jumper – he’s an ex pointer lauded for his abilities back then and just made the one bad blunder last time, almost certainly because DL was harrying him so much.
I’ll be disappointed if Champagne Fever goes for the Arkle because i have him in the JLT. Willie Mullins said on Sunday though that Ruby is fairly keen on the 2 miler.
Unless it’s soft i’ll be taking him on.
A smooth performance from Rock On Ruby today, ok he only beat Mr Mole but for me he’s the bet of the festival, how many other horses in the field have beaten the fly over hurdles? The closer we get the more confident I’m feeling he will win.
I wasn’t that impressed and the fences at Doncaster are fairly kind in comparison to those at Cheltenham. He’s had to be ridden to clear several lengths from Mr Mole, who’s form is far from special.
I wasn’t impressed either.
I strongly fancy champagne fever to win this if he goes arkle route
I think their is plenty more to come, they’ve been keen to get a run into him so you have to presume he wasn’t 100% today, don’t think the ground was ideal either as their was talk of him getting pulled out today if their was more rain. Despite the above he still did all he could do today and won. He looked like he was going to win on the bridle until coming towards the last and given that it was a match race in effect he was never going to win by that far.
I’d sit somewhere in between. I’m a big Champagne Fever fan, however when you look at the Festival record of ROR it is second to none – Neptune winner, Champion Hdle winner and runner up, two from two over fences and can go a good clip but also has stamina to win at 2m 5f. Pretty much what we are all hinging our hopes on CF for, but he has yet to win at that highest level that ROR has.
I must confess, ROR is a horse that I’ve never really warmed to, more than likely as he’s slain my fancies in the past. He’s also nine, which is a negative, but only in the sense that there are far less nine year olds who run as novices. BIG danger in my book.Sorry to be a pedant Shack but he was 2nd in the Neptune.
Anyhow, Dodging Bullets looked good when cruising past Grandouet LTO, giving 6lbs. Yes, he ran poorly in the Supreme but I don’t fully buy into the assessment that he loses his form in the spring as he had finished 4th in the Triumph.
5 years ago an unbeaten Nicholls’ chaser would be a lot shorter than 13/2 for the Arkle and he’s the most likely winner for me – with easily the biggest danger being Champagne Fever should he turn up.
Lee
Not sure where all the criticism of Rock On Ruby is coming from. Within the realms of a two-horse race he did everything you might have expected. His jumping appeared very straight and accurate. Mr Mole is a complete rogue but he did have enough talent to reel in the well regarded Vukovar on his chasing debut.
If as seems very likely Champagne Fever lines up I think the Arkle is tactically the most interesting race of the Festival. In last year’s Supreme he managed to carve out a relatively easy lead. It helped the leader that McCoy was clearly concerned about conserving My Tent Or Yours for the final climb and consequently delayed his challenge until the last. There will be plenty of challengers in the Arkle who have no such stamina limitations so it will be surprising and disappointing if at least one rival doesn’t bustle up the favourite from an early stage. The big question is will this result in him effectively waving a white flag?
Surely they must get a run into Champagne Fever now he’s not running on sunday. Looking ahead, the Flyingbolt Novice Chase at Navan on 15th looks perfect for him.
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