- This topic has 142 replies, 51 voices, and was last updated 15 years, 3 months ago by
.
- Posts
- Total Posts 17716
Solving the Arkle puzzle is easy. Go out your front door and walk to the nearest bookies and take the 4/1 about Finian’s Rainbow before he wins at the weekend
Solving the Arkle puzzle is easy. Go out your front door and walk to the nearest bookies and take the 4/1 about Finian’s Rainbow before he wins at the weekend
Before being beaten by Ghizao at Cheltenham.
One horse it would be folly to underestimate is Mamlook. I don’t know how many Arkle winners have a Chester Cup on their CV, and I would imagine he’s more likely to go for the Jewson, but he jumped like a veteran on his only chase start and I think he’s been overlooked in both markets.
He has also been declared to run in the Kingmaker and it will be interesting to see how he fares over a sharp two miles.
Mamlook jumped and travelled well on his chasing debut but have a look at his Cheltenham record – that is why he appears to have been overlooked. If they don’t act on the track they are no value at any price.
- Total Posts 17716
If the Arkle were run at Ascot, Bosranic, then Mamlook would be a contender. Unfortunately it’s run at Cheltenham and as such he’s very much in the ‘not a prayer’ pile.
I mentioned Kilmurry right at the start of the thread, but if he’s good enough to beat Finian’s Rainbow then I’ll be amazed: any horse that kept pace with Petit Robin whilst only a novice hurdler won’t be touched in a race like this.
- Total Posts 17716
Did you really get 25/1? you should be arrested for robbery
Maybe not worth of its own thread, but I thought it was a useful bit of info, and its kind of linked to the Arkle. As stated in today’s RP:
The Jewson Handicap (as was), is now downgraded to a 0-140 handicap, to accomodate the new 2m 4f Grade 2 chase. This means that a lot of the market leaders in the Jewson will not qualify, as they will be rated too high.
Has anyone got a link to a list of the current handicap marks of Novice Chasers? I fancy Hell’s Bay for the race, but I would like to know its current rating before doing my dough.
I imagine horses like Captain Chris, Hell’s Bay etc will be rated too high due to form with Medermit, Time For Rupert and Finian’s Rainbow.
Any ideas?
Hi Blunkett
The 2011 Jewson is a 2m4f Grade 2 level weights race. This is where Hells Bay is targeted (and wins hopefully)
The Jewson from last year, is now known as the Centenary Novices Chase and is the handicap
For info, Hells Bay is rated 156 according to the Racing Post
Tremendous news.
I’m struggling to keep up with all these name changes of races. I’ve waded on Hell’s Bay.
Anyway, back to the Arkle – Medermit wins!
Not that impressive from Finian’s Rainbow today.
Ghizao still the one they all have to get their nose in-front of, in my opinion.
- Total Posts 17716
Finian’s Rainbow jumped appallingly, but he would still have won had Killmurry (who hammered Ghizao earlier in the season) not broken down.
I get the impression Henderson has backed off a number of his horses in recent weeks in an attempt to have them bang-on for Cheltenham; this fellow will improve massively on that performance. He’ll be better jumping at pace, too.
He’s still too big at 4/1.
The other thing to bear in mind with Finian’s is they tried different tactics today, to try and drop him in and give him some racing experience. Looks like he didn’t fancy that much and he was all over the shop at the start. On his previous outings he’s been allowed to travel along and jumped much better, albeit not spotlessly.
That said, he’s got himself out of trouble so far, and the thing I really like about him is his attitude – he really seems to love fencing. Just wish he had some experience of a big field.
- Total Posts 17716
It shouldn’t be forgotten either that third-placed Tail Of The Bank is likely to receive a mark in the mid-130s and second-placed Stagecoach Pearl is already rated 147; both were absolutely annihilated yesterday.
I have backed Medermit already but will now add Finians after that display at Warwick, I was impressed. They deliberately tried new tactics with a new jockey and he will have learnt more yesterday than in both his previous victories.
On top of that the 2nd and 3rd are two horses I rate somewhat and the late Kilmurry had one piece of form that make this an impressive performance by FR.
Back to more forcing tactics, with Barry back up and trained for the race he is definetly a big runner for me.
Good luck to those who got the bigger prices but I am happy to add him at 9/2.Can’t say I was all that impressed with Finian’s Rainbow yesterday.
He’s a lovely looking, athletic animal, but guessed at a few of his fences on Saturday and there’s no way he will get away with that in an Arkle.
Beating seven horses in three chase starts will not prepare him for the rough and tumble of an Arkle. I love the way he travels in his races, but he flattered to deceive in the Neptune Investment last year after travelling better than anything at the bottom of the hill.
He found precious little when Rite Of Passage and Reve De Sivola kicked for home and if you look back at the Kingmaker yesterday, he wasn’t doing anything in a hurry and Kilmurry was certainly rallying before his fatal injury.
When he wins he looks likes a world beater, but when the chips are down he doesn’t find a great deal.
I think the likes of Ghizao and Medermit will find more than Finian’s Rainbow up the hill. Initially, I found Medermit far from convincing, but he is going in the right direction and there was a lot to like about his Sandown success.
He acts around Cheltenham and has form at The Festival. He split Go Native and Somersby in a competitive Supreme and the conditions of an Arkle are ideal.
The Arkle will be the last time
Finians Rainbow
will run over 2 miles,he will be campaigned as a Gold Cup horse next year and will be a force to be reckoned with,unfortunately for those who have backed him for this years Arkle,he wont get round and even if he does he wont get
Medermit
off the bridle,he by the way will be a force in next years Champion chase,he"ll go over 21/2m again at Aintree though!
Finians Rainbow can be excused his jumping last time. he looks a smart (brainy-hes a thinker) horse and I think he knows how the game works. I’m going to suggest that he is a very eager horse and that the new tactics were entirely necessary. IMO the horse was agitated to be out the back buried (I know, 3 horses doesn’t constitute buried) behind horses. He knows hes meant to be in front and not being theere upset him and made him keen, not to race fast, but just to have the other horses
behind
him. It sounds far fetched and ‘horse whispery’ but it makes perfect sense. He
did
learn a lot that day because he knows not to expect the same ride every time now.
His jumping can be put entirely down to his confusion that day and when he lines up in march he will be more reliably ridden. Other horses do seem more straight forward though and just one more run from Finians would be perfect but there is not the time unfortunately.
I would love to back him for the Arkle but considering all I’ve said, I can hardly take 9/2 about a horse I think would like one more race to get comfortable with being ridden as the race conditions demand.
My 2 cents
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.