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I just said on another thread that we could all be guilty of underrating Arabian Queen – something Ellsworth clearly believed the Racing media were guilty of.
The only way we will ever find out if it was a fluke is if Golden Horn meets Arabian Queen and defeats her. Hopefully she will meet him again but that looks highly unlikely as things stand.
I backed High Celebrity in the Cherry Hinton last season and thought Arabian Queen had got away with it because of the ground. However we now know High Celebrity would have done well to beat the Elsworth horse whatever the ground.
Hindsight is a great thing. However the fact remains that on a strict form line with The Grey Gatsby, Golden Horn has run right up to form in the International, and thats probably as good as he is. Bookies make him 7/4 for Leopardstown to defeat Gleneagles (11/4). The bookies have clearly made up their minds as the odds before York were 4/6 GH and 3/1 Gleneagles.
I also concur with Steve Caution’s observation that Golden Horn looks more like a horse who needs winding up over a long straight rather than one who can sit handy and show marked acceleration. It may well be, therefore, that Leopardstown won’t suit him and that Gleneagles will do him for toe at the business end.
I just said on another thread that we could all be guilty of underrating Arabian Queen – something Ellsworth clearly believed the Racing media were guilty of.
The only way we will ever find out if it was a fluke is if Golden Horn meets Arabian Queen and defeats her. Hopefully she will meet him again but that looks highly unlikely as things stand.
I backed High Celebrity in the Cherry Hinton last season and thought Arabian Queen had got away with it because of the ground. However we now know High Celebrity would have done well to beat the Elsworth horse whatever the ground.
Hindsight is a great thing. However the fact remains that on a strict form line with The Grey Gatsby, Golden Horn has run right up to form in the International, and thats probably as good as he is. Bookies make him 7/4 for Leopardstown to defeat Gleneagles (11/4). The bookies have clearly made up their minds as the odds before York were 4/6 GH and 3/1 Gleneagles.
I also concur with Steve Caution’s observation that Golden Horn looks more like a horse who needs winding up over a long straight rather than one who can sit handy and show marked acceleration. It may well be, therefore, that Leopardstown won’t suit him and that Gleneagles will do him for toe at the business end.
I fully agree that it looks like the form of the Eclipse has been replicated but there is just the chance that it might be a red herring, if both horses underperformed to a similar degree in the Juddmonte.
Looking at the Juddmonte The Grey Gatsby never gets as close to Golden Horn as he had done in the Eclipse and to my eyes he finished a good bit more tired looking than he had in the Eclipse.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Hold on chaps, way to much analysis going on here. Let’s face it, better horses get beaten by inferior horses every day of the week; there are probably too many reasons to mention why that happens and we can all be wise after the event. At the end of the day Arabian Queen won the race and the rest of the field didn’t. I for one considered backing The Grey Gatsby e/w at 10-1/12-1 but backed out once Gleneagles was confirmed a non-runner. I couldn’t have given AQ a second glance on what she’d achieved prior to the Juddmonte even given the change in ground conditions to that which she’d run on previously; after all she’d won at Epsom impressively making all over 1m & change on her first start this year on quickish ground (slight sour grapes here because I’d backed Odeliz).
Horses make fools of us all the time, we just have to accept it and move on; even if we’re shaking our heads in disbelief whilst doing so.Of course we “accept it”. But you can never have too much analysis Orabist. It’s what form study is all about. Working out what went wrong in a race helps pinpoint value/winners of the future. Arabian Queen improved dramatically when racing on a soft surface for the first time as a two year old. Did the same thing at three.
P.S.
She made no “fool” of me.
Value Is EverythingI also concur with Steve Caution’s observation that Golden Horn looks more like a horse who needs winding up over a long straight rather than one who can sit handy and show marked acceleration. It may well be, therefore, that Leopardstown won’t suit him and that Gleneagles will do him for toe at the business end.
Like I said, if you take the horses getting an advantage from the pace bias out of the eqation (Arabian Queen and Dick Doubtywylie, the result looks fine. But I wouldn’t exactly say Golden Horn “needs winding up”; does have a good turn of foot it just does not happen immediate for pressure and needs a sound surface to be effective. Sectionals in previous races say he has the speed and if he has the speed then a shorter straight should not be a problem.
Value Is Everything<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>ivanjica wrote:</div>
Sectionals in previous races say he has the speed and if he has the speed then a shorter straight should not be a problem.
That maybe the case however in your Timeform links they also state after the Eclipse “Golden Horn remains unbeaten, and it will take a very good horse to lower his colours”.
Either Arabian Queen is a very good horse, or Golden Horn has been overrated. Leopardstown will be very revealing, and every horse deserves another chance, especially one who was so impressive and unbeaten prior to York.
However I am beginning to think he is vulnerable to a horse such as Gleneagles who clearly has an immediate turn of foot. It may well be Frankie commits early in Ireland as he did at Sandown and draws the sting out of the Ballydoyle horse, however I am not in the camp that thinks Gleneagles is a non-stayer – I can see him sitting in behind and pouncing with devastating effect close home.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Gingertipster wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>ivanjica wrote:</div>
Sectionals in previous races say he has the speed and if he has the speed then a shorter straight should not be a problem.
Either Arabian Queen is a very good horse, or Golden Horn has been overrated. Leopardstown will be very revealing, and every horse deserves another chance, especially one who was so impressive and unbeaten prior to York.
Like to point out am just a subscriber, although those links are free. Giving my opinion here, not particularly Timeform’s.
Arabian Queen (and Dick Doubtywylie) was flattered Ivanjica, because she had the advantage of racing prominently in a (ignoring the pacemaker) slowly run race. With the added advantage of a strong tailwind which favours front/prominent-runners. Golden Horn and The Grey Gatsby probably aren’t as effective on good-soft. So that’s THREE advantages which together enabled Arabian Queen to win.That does not mean Golden Horn is “overrated”, just that he was below form because of the surface and/or racing against a big pace/wind bias.
Value Is Everythingtbh I think Gleneagles is a miler who only might stay 1m2f given a firmish surface. imo He’d be Champion Sprinter if going that way.
Value Is EverythingI just can’t see golden horn beating gleneagles unless he tries the same tactics as in the eclipse. In most of these group ones it’s the horse with the biggest kick that prevails. Right now over a couple of furlongs at the end of a steadily run race on good to firm going you would be mad to bet against gleneagles. Watch the guineas again and he won it so easily. Hopefully the going comes right for leapardstown. Could gleneagles end up at the breeders cup if he doesn’t run there.theres a thought.
I just can’t see golden horn beating gleneagles unless he tries the same tactics as in the eclipse. In most of these group ones it’s the horse with the biggest kick that prevails. Right now over a couple of furlongs at the end of a steadily run race on good to firm going you would be mad to bet against gleneagles. Watch the guineas again and he won it so easily. Hopefully the going comes right for leapardstown. Could gleneagles end up at the breeders cup if he doesn’t run there.theres a thought.
I think there is every chance Gleneagles could go to the Breeders Cup. He is entered in both Champion Stakes (Irish and English) and the QE11 however the horse is highly unlikely to run in any of those races unless the ground is good at worst. I’d say there is every chance we’ve seen the last of him in Britain and Ireland. It could be the same for Golden Horn.
It’s annoying how trainers are so worried about ground conditions. Gleneagles has won on ground with cut in it but I can see why O’Brien took him out of the Juddmonte. Had that race been over a mile i’d have been annoyed that he didn’t run but asking the horse to go two furlongs further for the first time on softer ground when that could be the limit to his stamina is understandable. I’ve already commented on Golden Horn, Gosden has messed this horse up, should’ve gone to the King George. He would now be sitting there with an unbeaten colt and everybody would’ve been excited about him taking on Treve and Jack Hobbs in the Arc.
I just can’t see golden horn beating gleneagles unless he tries the same tactics as in the eclipse. In most of these group ones it’s the horse with the biggest kick that prevails. Right now over a couple of furlongs at the end of a steadily run race on good to firm going you would be mad to bet against gleneagles. Watch the guineas again and he won it so easily. Hopefully the going comes right for leapardstown. Could gleneagles end up at the breeders cup if he doesn’t run there.theres a thought.
I think there is every chance Gleneagles could go to the Breeders Cup. He is entered in both Champion Stakes (Irish and English) and the QE11 however the horse is highly unlikely to run in any of those races unless the ground is good at worst. I’d say there is every chance we’ve seen the last of him in Britain and Ireland. It could be the same for Golden Horn.
It’s annoying how trainers are so worried about ground conditions. Gleneagles has won on ground with cut in it but I can see why O’Brien took him out of the Juddmonte. Had that race been over a mile i’d have been annoyed that he didn’t run but asking the horse to go two furlongs further for the first time on softer ground when that could be the limit to his stamina is understandable. I’ve already commented on Golden Horn, Gosden has messed this horse up, should’ve gone to the King George. He would now be sitting there with an unbeaten colt and everybody would’ve been excited about him taking on Treve and Jack Hobbs in the Arc.
It would make total sense for both golden horn and gleneagles to go to the breeders cup. Glen Eagles would get his ground and golden horn would easily win the 12f turf race. They might try gleneagles on dirt but as galileos don’t seem to go on it that’s unlikely. Such a shame we’ve missed so many possible clashes due to the effect it has on the horses stallion prospects.
I just said on another thread that we could all be guilty of underrating Arabian Queen – something Ellsworth clearly believed the Racing media were guilty of.
The official handicapper has upped Arabian Queen to 116, the same rating the Racing Post have for her. That means that she beat a horse with a full stone higher rating.
The only conclusions we can make are that Golden Horn either ran a stone below his best, he was overrated in the first place, or it was just one of those freak results.
In these boil-over results there is almost always a rating that emerges which casts a big question mark over the whole race. In this case the horse is Dick Doughtywylie and the rating is 109.
Dick Doughtywylie went from 99 up to 109 and at his age, with his profile and in his role as a pacemaker in the race it takes a lot of believing that he has just run the highest rating of his life.
I have collated the data and printed it off onto several pages of A4 paper. It’s been placed in a folder, tied neatly with a red ribbon, lifted cautiously with a pair of tongs and dropped into drawer 13 of the filing cabinet, the one labelled “Cobblers”
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Dick Doubtywylie appeared to produce a career best, but he was the only one to run at optimum pace. Under those conditions he is more than likely going to produce a performance that – at face value – looks a career best.
If I raced Usain Bolt at 100m on a surface I enjoyed but he did not: I went off at my genuine 100 metre pace and he decided to jog, giving me a 15 metre head start by halfway… I’d still get well beaten, but the distance beaten in fact flatters me. A GB 100m runner was also in the race and given a 4 metre head start by halfway and just held on to beat the great man. Should Usain Bolt be judged on that performance?
It is pointless judging Golden Horn by Dick Doubtywylie. Arabian Queen (a much better horse than Dick) also given a head start. As far as assessing Golden Horn and The Grey Gatsby is concerned – the form isn’t worth bothering about. Other than to say both probably need a sound surface to produce their best.
Value Is EverythingLooks like Arabian Queen’s connections are leaning towards a supplementary entry for the Irish Champion.
Hats off to them. Whether you want to call it old school or whatever, they take personally, and rightly too, any suggestion that the their filly is inferior to the horses she finished in front of at York and that the result was some sort of fluke. They could easily wrap her in cotton wool now but want to prove that she is capable of repeating that performance.
Roll on September.
Looks like Arabian Queen’s connections are leaning towards a supplementary entry for the Irish Champion.
Hats off to them. Whether you want to call it old school or whatever, they take personally, and rightly too, any suggestion that the their filly is inferior to the horses she finished in front of at York and that the result was some sort of fluke. They could easily wrap her in cotton wool now but want to prove that she is capable of repeating that performance.
Roll on September.
They are talking of swerving the Irish Champion in favour of the Vermeille now.
With Arabian Queen still rated a stone behind Golden Horn and half a stone behind The Grey Gatsby, it is hard to treat the result as anything other than a one off. She is 20/1 for the Irish Champion, so that indicates that bookmakers either feel she is unlikely to run, isn’t capable or confirming the form, or perhaps a little mix of the two factors.
Of course, until we get a projection on how I am likely to perform in a race against Carl Lewis, we won’t know anything for sure. Mo Farah and The Ante Post King against each other could also be informative, while I fancy Nathan Hughes to have the legs of Christine Ohuruogu based on current form, as long as Nathan gets his ground and they run Triptych as a pacemaker for him.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>ivanjica wrote:</div>
Looks like Arabian Queen’s connections are leaning towards a supplementary entry for the Irish Champion.Hats off to them. Whether you want to call it old school or whatever, they take personally, and rightly too, any suggestion that the their filly is inferior to the horses she finished in front of at York and that the result was some sort of fluke. They could easily wrap her in cotton wool now but want to prove that she is capable of repeating that performance.
Roll on September.
They are talking of swerving the Irish Champion in favour of the Vermeille now.
With Arabian Queen still rated a stone behind Golden Horn and half a stone behind The Grey Gatsby, it is hard to treat the result as anything other than a one off. She is 20/1 for the Irish Champion, so that indicates that bookmakers either feel she is unlikely to run, isn’t capable or confirming the form, or perhaps a little mix of the two factors.
Of course, until we get a projection on how I am likely to perform in a race against Carl Lewis, we won’t know anything for sure. Mo Farah and The Ante Post King against each other could also be informative, while I fancy Nathan Hughes to have the legs of Christine Ohuruogu based on current form, as long as Nathan gets his ground and they run Triptych as a pacemaker for him.
That must be the funniest paragraph I’ve ever read on here.
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