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Not sure you can say there’s any each-way value in a seven horse race. Inclined to agree with Reet that 4/7 is generous, but it would worry me if he started at that price- if Mr F is confident I’d expect him to go off more like 1/3. As I’ve said on the Gold Cup thread I’ve laid him for the GC as I think the downside is small- he won’t be a lot shorter on the day even if he wins well tomorrow.
Kempton wouldn’t be Deman’s ideal course, but his jumping ability, and the soft ground, will more than negate any deficiency.Considering he is a stone and a half superior to the others, 4/7 may well look like finding money in the street by tomorrow evening.
I don’t have him a stone and a half clear of Albertas Run. Don’t forget Denman is giving that horse five pounds as well and Denman isn’t running on a track likely to see him run to his peak rating.
Looks tricky and don’t think I can see a betting angle. Denman would win if retaining 90% of his ability, but I don’t know how serious his problems have been. Neither of Pipe’s look good enough and An Accordian is also coming off a break. Joe Lively faces different conditions to last time and had a gruelling race, I think he’s more likely to run poorly than run to form. Albertas Run is overpriced if you were assured he could reproduce his best form on the ground. He’s lots of bumper and hurdles form on soft ground but it’s a fact his very best efforts over fences have been away from very testing ground. If forced I’d go for him with Jonjo’s still is reasonable heart.
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I don’t have him a stone and a half clear of Albertas Run. Don’t forget Denman is giving that horse five pounds as well and Denman isn’t running on a track likely to see him run to his peak rating.
I can see why you’d think so Ian, but you’d have to believe that:
A/ Alberta’s Run really did improve by the 13lbs the OH raised him for his last run, even though it was his 9th outing over fences.
B/ Kauto Star really did improve by around a stone on his 2 previous runs this season, and ran to a best mark he hadn’t achieved in his previous 5 starts.
C/ Voy Por Ustedes stayed well enough to run close to his best ever mark, even though his trainer made it clear that he won’t run at that trip again.Whether it’s 14lb or 21lb, do you really think the track will inconvenience Denman that much?
I don’t have him a stone and a half clear of Albertas Run. Don’t forget Denman is giving that horse five pounds as well and Denman isn’t running on a track likely to see him run to his peak rating.
I can see why you’d think so Ian, but you’d have to believe that:
A/ Alberta’s Run really did improve by the 13lbs the OH raised him for his last run, even though it was his 9th outing over fences.
Reet,
Albertas didn"t improve 13lb in the King George, he was already that good, its just that the Handicapper had underestimated his RSA win,he was a handicap good thing for the Hennessey, but dissapointed in Soft ground, he is defineately a 10lb better horse on Good ground though!The only thing stopping me backing Albertas Run tomorrow is the ground.
Theres too many ‘ifs and buts’ about Denman tomorrow and it is most definitely more a watching race
Will this race really add 10% to betting turnover tomorrow?
How much would staging the Schweppes have increased it by?
As of when did Denman become a left-handed boat? I can understand the fitness arguments, but there’s nothing about the horse’s previous form that would suggest to me that he wont act on a flat track or go right handed. Could someone explain why this view is taken for granted by most?
- Total Posts 17716
Reet,
Albertas didn"t improve 13lb in the King George, he was already that good, its just that the Handicapper had underestimated his RSA win,he was a handicap good thing for the Hennessey, but dissapointed in Soft ground, he is defineately a 10lb better horse on Good ground though!GW
Then aren’t you saying that a 4.5l defeat of Rolling Ball in the RSA equates to the 165 he was accorded for his KG 2nd? While he did disappoint in the Hennessy, that would probably be more down to the holding ground (Which is equally likely today) rather than any propensity for faster.
In that race, the RP has the time-based ground as good to soft (going allowance 0.78p.f.), slightly faster than the RSA (0.68 ), and appreciably faster than the Mildmay (-0.93).
Interestingly, though there may be more than a touch of blarney, this is what his trainer said about his KG run, which many rate so highly:
"Our horse hasn’t got the speed of Kauto Star around here and Cheltenham will suit him better – but it will need to suit him two-stone better!" – Johnjo O’Neill
On the above evidence, I wouldn’t even have the horse on my mind for a forecast.:lol: As of when did Denman become a left-handed boat?
I can understand the fitness arguments, but there’s nothing about the horse’s previous form that would suggest to me that he wont act on a flat track or go right handed. Could someone explain why this view is taken for granted by most?
In all his appearances on right handed courses he has hung left.
Isn’t it great to have some proper racing back?
Reet –
Looking through my ratings for this race I actually have Albertas Run on a par virtually with Denman. Yes thats hard to believe I know but let me explain.
Denman’s best rating I have is 179 for last years Gold Cup. I know many have made that a 180+ performance but that seems highly unlikely to me and a bit of an over-reaction. In order for Denman to have run into the 180’s Kauto Star would’ve had to have put up a better performance than he did when winning the Gold Cup the previous year and Neptune Collonges needs to have run well in excess of his previous peak. Simply, I don’t believe those things happened. Denman slogged them into the ground in what (on a stiff track in softish ground) amounted to a 3 1/2 mile race.
Albertas Run I have a best of 173 for his King George run. Voy Por Ustedes regardless of trainers comments stayed well enough. Yes he gave way on the run in but he wasn’t a terrible non stayer. Given that his previous best run was 173 at Aintree last year when stepping up in trip there is no reason to assume that he hasn’t run to the 172 I’ve given him given that a) Kauto Star is a 180 horse round Kempton as we’ve seen the two previous years. Did he not look like the normal Kauto to you on Boxing Day? Added to that Briarius I have as a 149 horse and he ran to exactly that mark. That gives Albertas Run 173. Given the weights today it puts him a mere one pound behind Denman.
Denman will NOT run up to his peak mark today not on this track, at this trip after an eleven month health layoff. He probably wouldn’t run to his peak in these conditions in normal circumstances his flat three mile form isn’t as good as his Cheltenham form though of course still of a very high standard.
Joe Lively actually despite his win last time out has a hell of a lot to find at weights here practically a stone to find with Albertas Run on peak ratings. Joe had a very tough race just two weeks ago and I agree with Davidjohnson I think he will run below form anyway he could run a shocker here. Even if he doesn’t if others run to their peak he can’t win.
Thats two I strongly predict will not run to their best.
Albertas Run I don’t know. Listening to AP on the Morning Line he seems to think that the small field is crucial for Albertas and despite Big Mac’s "won’t have a winner" rantings McCoy is hopeful about Albertas. Like others he thinks the horse is best on good ground but I will ask this question : When apart from his seasonal re-ap this season behind Tidal Bay when he wasn’t right anyway, when has Albertas Run run badly on soft ground? Simply he hasn’t. He’s won on heavy, he’s won on soft. He’s won 4 times on soft or heavy ground and won a Sun Alliance on ground that certainly had juice in it. He’s previously been beaten twice at Aintree on Good ground so where is the evidence that he doesn’t handle soft or even heavy ground? I can’t find any.
Madison Du Berlais is one that could surprise people here, its not impossible that the big three in the betting could all get turned over.
However at 6/1 Albertas Run is the value here and I’ve taken a chance on him in the knowledge that occasionally he can put in a bit of a disappointing run and in the knowledge that connections believe he may be best on faster ground (regardless of solid evidence or not). At 6’s its worth taking a chance on him but certainly not worth going in heavy IMO.
Everyone wants the Denman vs Kauto Star rematch in the Gold Cup, so hopefully Denman shows he retains his ability today and wins the race.
Paul Nicholls will have the horse fit enough to do himself justice, though none of us should expect an earth shattering perfomance after such a long lay off.
If there are any signs or indication that the horse is not in fine fettle, then I’m sure Cheltenham would be well off the agenda.
That said, I think (and hope ) Denman will win today – but then I would, wouldn’t I ?
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Listening to Harry Findlay on ATR if Denman wins this afternoon it’ll be a bonus. The race being used as "a final piece of work", "Not a race for Denman".
Quotes from Harry himself.
Denman is a machine as we all know but I’m sure glad I haven’t bet the odds on, will take a very, very brave man to do so.
Question- if you are a monster odds-on punter, you own a horse running on a Saturday with 20lbs in hand and you are handed a slot on the major racing channel, what do you do?
At 8/11 I’m backing him!Question- if you are a monster odds-on punter, you own a horse running on a Saturday with 20lbs in hand and you are handed a slot on the major racing channel, what do you do?
At 8/11 I’m backing him!Harry’s not having a penny on him neither are the rest of the connections. That’s what Harry said infact he’s watching from home and concentrating on the Scoop 6.
He may be colourful at times but Harry is no liar.
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