The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Ante-Post Doubles

Home Forums Archive Topics Trends, Research And Notebooks Ante-Post Doubles

Viewing 14 posts - 1 through 14 (of 14 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #1328921
    Avatar photoDegaussed
    Participant
    • Total Posts 568

    Is it possible to get an ante-post double on with a conventional bookmaker, for the same horse for two races at two different meetings? For instance, Sizing John to win the Lexus and the Gold Cup?

    #1328927
    Avatar photoGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 34704

    Yes, Degaussed. Could ask a bookie to give you a special price to do a double.
    Sometimes you’ll get one or two bookmakers pricing up things like that a day or two before the first leg. But (expect you’re aware but some may mot) will rightly be a lot shorter price than backing two horses in a double would be… Because it’s an easier thing to do, only needing to be correct that one horse is top class/good enough – not two.

    Value Is Everything
    #1328929
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 16067

    Degaussed, none of the firms are really geared up for these things, but some are worth asking, and I’ve been doing them for a few years now. I always do The Hennessy/Cheltenham double.

    I had one with Native River that gave me a bit of fun, Hennessy/Cheltenham, and I’ve got one this year with American (I won’t mention my Sizing Codelco one lol)

    The best by far are Bet365, William Hill & Paddy Power.

    Bet365 – Just phone them, ask to get a quote, and they will Phone you back with an offer. Very reliable, and they always return the call.

    William Hill – Phone up, and normally quoted there and then, and usually fair price.

    Paddy Power – Just E-Mail support@paddypower.com, and they’ll get back to you in 24 hours. Very fair prices too.

    Stan James & Ladbrokes – Similar to Hills, but prices are rarely that good.

    I hope that explains things ok, but if I haven’t made it clear, please let me know.

    Might be worth asking LostSoldier3 for a Corals/Ladbrokes perspective.

    #1328941
    Avatar photoDegaussed
    Participant
    • Total Posts 568

    Thanks a lot both for your help!

    #1328942
    LostSoldier3
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 1874

    It’s a tricky thing to do – it’s basically a related double. Price of the second leg is dependent upon the result of the first.

    A lot of people ring up for something like Thistlecrack for the King George and Gold Cup and get a bit indignant when the price quoted isn’t the same as a straight double of the two. Obviously the price of the second leg would be conditional on Thistlecrack winning the first. If he won the King George, he’d then be a fair bit shorter for the Gold Cup. You have to estimate the second price as if the first race is won.

    We’re happy to quote this sort of thing if you come into a shop, ring telebet or go via live chat. We’ll give you a quote straight away. Personally I don’t enjoy being put on the spot by these requests so you might panic me into a rick! One of my colleagues quoted a very big price on a request for Sam Spinner to win on Saturday and win the Stayers’ Hurdle the other day – was that you snaffling the value VTC?

    #1328945
    Avatar photoDegaussed
    Participant
    • Total Posts 568

    Thanks, LS3.

    What you’re saying at the end there is to ask for about five or six ante-post doubles, with the one I really want hidden in there somewhere, hoping you’ll get flustered?

    #1328948
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 34655

    Racebets gave me face value double on Thistlecrack to do the KG/Gold Cup double, last year.

    Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026

    #1328957
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 16067

    @LostSoldier3

    Not me I’m afraid soldier, I’m happy enough with the prices I got on the exchange, though it’s exactly the kind of bet I like to do.

    #1328975
    Avatar photostevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8241

    I backed Saxon Warrior for the Guineas/Derby double at 66/1 before the Racing Post Trophy. He is 25/1 for that double now with Bet365, the only firm quoting odds for that eventuality.

    The odds for the individual events are 7/1 and 4/1 with Bet365, so if you got the full value, it would 8×5 and £40 back, ie 39/1 for a £1 double.

    However, Saxon Warrior will not be 4/1 for the Derby if he wins the Guineas. Giving 25/1 overall for the double means Bet365 are anticipating that Saxon Warrior will be 9/4 for the Derby if he wins the Guineas. ie £8 running from the Guineas at 9/4 is £18 for the £8 to give a return of £26 (equivalent to the original £1 at 25/1)

    It might seem poor value but if Saxon Warrior wins the Guineas in decent style, he could be more like 6/4 for Epsom. In which case the bookie should have been 19/1 for the double.

    As LS3 says, it’s a tricky area and I am dubious about how much demand there is anyway. These impetuous punters sometimes cannot wait as long as five minutes, far less 5 months.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1328996
    LostSoldier3
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 1874

    Good logic Steve and pretty much right, although I guess the extra little top-up in that 25/1 Saxon Warrior price just comes from the long-range nature of the double. Injuries, chance of him not running in one or the other race, general passage of time.

    There is a growing demand for ante-post doubles and personalised bets in general. SkyBet led the way with Request A Bet and now practically every firm has a way to give you an instant price on the quirky bets you can dream up. Our most popular #yourcall bet on the Southampton v Everton game yesterday was Jagielka to win 4+tackles, Gueye to make 60+passes​ & Sigurdsson to have 2+shots. :wacko:

    #1329009
    Avatar photoSteeplechasing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6337

    You have to estimate the second price as if the first race is won.

    Frame Lost Soldier’s words and put them on your wall.

    These bets are desperate value with most bookmakers (the odd error slips through like 50/1 Golden Horn Dante/Derby double when the best elsewhere was 20/1) for precisely the reason LS lays out. I know it seems crazy to argue this as I’ve done occasionally over the years because the bookie is just providing the punter with exactly what he’s asked for, but the price does not take into account the logical statistical possibility that the first leg could be lost.

    Rather than phoning round, you’d be better having a single and then you have the opportunity of betting the quoted price for the second leg. You also have the advantage of being able to re-evaluate. Did he scramble home in leg 1? Did something fall at the last and let him win? If you’re quick on your feet you can often grab panicky post-race quotes for leg 2 (I’ve done this often). Look at Sam Spinner on Saturday; he got quotes as low as 12/1 but 33/1 was also available.

    Avoid these ‘related’ bets which are not in fact related in any sense other than you believe they will happen. Or if they are related, they are related in two ways and you are only being offered one.

    #1329039
    LostSoldier3
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 1874

    And that’s why Steeplechasing’s home decorating business never took off. Obscure bookmaking maxims as wallhangings don’t quite fit with the current minimalist trend. ;-)

    I disagree with you Joe. The price for the first event is static as quoted, but the existence of the second price is wholly conditional on the first leg being won. The chance of the bet going down in leg one is the first price – that possibility is entirely factored in. If you’re asking for a double the mathematical question you’re asking me is: “What chance that my horse wins race 1 and then wins Race 2?” To frame it in a GCSE maths way, it’s an AND probability tree.

    I don’t see how you can frame the question to be non-related. I think you’re right on your view on these bets rarely appealing as a punter. Generally I like to play the singles as I don’t think passage of time/chance of injury is usually factored in generously enough. As VTC and Steve said, though, some firms or individual compilers can bungle it and give you a little gift.

    #1329040
    Avatar photoEx RubyLight
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5851

    These bets are desperate value with most bookmakers (the odd error slips through like 50/1 Golden Horn Dante/Derby double when the best elsewhere was 20/1) for precisely the reason LS lays out.

    You might be right about the Dante and the Derby which are roughly 4 weeks apart. But a NH race in November/December and then one at the Festival in mid March is some timespan.

    But I have to admit that I’d do it the same way.

    #1329047
    Avatar photoSteeplechasing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6337

    :) . Decorating was never my forte anyway; I struggle to change a lightbulb!

    The trouble with your argument, Soldier is that there is no price for the first event. There is no ‘static’ to be considered here. What you are quoting is one price based, as you said earlier, on the sole assumption that the first part of the bet is safely delivered, which it very obviously is not.

    You say the maths question is this: “What chance that my horse wins race 1 and then wins Race 2?” To frame it in a GCSE maths way, it’s an AND probability tree”

    That is indeed what the question is. Where the trouble lies is that the answer takes no account of the obvious and glaring probability that the horse might also lose race 1.

    I know it seems abtuse as all you are doing is fulfilling a request, but, in probability terms, which is how prices should be compiled, one of the key probabilities – that the horse will lose in leg 1 – is ignored. I’m not blaming you or any bookie who is facilitating a request from a hopeful punter, I’m just offering my take on why I believe it is awful value.

Viewing 14 posts - 1 through 14 (of 14 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.