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Lingfield 3:40 6f – Pontin’s Family Holidays Handicap (Class 2)
I’ll consider other inputs on this race before deciding to punt, but I cant find an angle on this race.. :angry:
My analysis highlights Maltese Falcon as a legitimate favourite, based on my progressive draw stats though the record of stall 1 does not instil a confident punt..
With 1 win in 41 starts Talbot Avenue is not one to place much faith on.. The magic dust contained in the visors may have warn off for First Order. Qadar has been beaten twice by Maltese Falcon and always seems to be doing his best work all too late. Woodnook has also lost to Maltese Falcon and steps up in class. The fact that Eddie Ahern has decide to ride in a flat verses jump mickey mouse race at Haydock puts me off Areyoutalkintome.. However :o
Areyoutalkintome is noted as potentially listed class on the all-weather. Am I being too contrarian in thinking that the drop back in trip may not inconvenience at a juicy price?
Thoughts?<br>
Lingfield 3:40<br>Maltese Falcon 9/4<br>Woodnook 5/1<br>Areyoutalkingtome 7/1<br>Perfect Story 10/1<br>Talbot Avenue 9/1
My tissue is all over the place given that I’ve not short-listed Qadar! All I can really take from it is that Maltese Falcon doesn’t have to do much to win again. The only worries are spoiling tactics from Smokin Beau, and his weakness this morning.
Either way 3/1 looks too big and I’ll play.
Maltese Falcon 4pts win at 3/1
Well done Max. Won easily as well at a decent price – those winnings should pay for your Christmas night out:) <br>
Cheers lads. Glad to contribute in some small way to a pretty good specialist thread. Won nicely and made a few quid for Christmas.
Six days to go before the two blank days.:o :o
Good call with Burgundy, Max! :cool:
(Sorry I haven’t been around much in the last few days, but I have generally been asleep or too tired or too hungover – things back to normal now the silly season is out of the way!)
Morning All,
I have a tip for today!
Cool Tiger 3-55pm Kempton.
I think he will do well this time after a terrible run at Southwell last week, he lost it in the first 50 yards.
I have a few more at –
Have a good day!
Moolarman :cheesy:
By far the best race at the sandpit tomorrow is the sprint handicap, (2.50 Southwell). A lorryload of old favourites line up and a couple of likely Dandy Nicholls runners add spice up the mix. ÂÂÂ
At first glance, it looks impossible. But looking at it a little deeper, we may have an angle.
The last two Class 3 sprint handicaps run over the trip, won by Stoneacre Lad and Dancing Mystery, (both mentioned in this thread), were won by middle drawn horses.
In fact, both races were concluded by horses drawn in 5, 6 or 7. ÂÂÂ
Dancing Mystery finished fifth in the latter race behind the unlucky and punted Moorhouse Lad. He was drawn one. The coffin box.
The inner lane on that occasion was as thick as treacle pudding and despite leading on his favourite track, the old horse had no answer to runners racing on the favoured centre strip. ÂÂÂ
Tomorrow he is back in the middle, nicely berthed in a key stall in 6. Using the draw as a heavy handed filter, we can eliminate much of the field.
After the Show, Moorhouse Lad and Trinculo have it all to do from the outside stalls, (12/11/10). Elfistorm and Pawan are drawn low and are safely held by Wheeler’s horse.  Pieter Brugheul is seemingly drawn out of it in 3. Graze On isn’t good enough, (held) and neither is the out-of-form Distinctly Game in 4. Nusoor would be a surprise winner from any stall.
Millinsky, drawn in 7 has no course experience but will benefit from the faster strip. Magic Glade in 8 is a CD winner and well handicapped, but has he the early toe to lay up? And like everyone else, I know little about Tom Dascombe’s ability with older handicappers; a skill in itself. The fly in the ointment.
I’m taking a nap punt at Dancing Mystery on a nightmare Tuesday.
A six time 5f winner at Southwell, still reasonably handicapped, in his right grade, a pacesetter, (still favoured), who holds half the field and is  running from a good stall on his favourite track. I reckon 8/1 is achievable at some point and there will be fifty worse bets at around that price in the next few months.
Good luck whatever you fancy.  Max
Sel: Dancing Mystery 2.50 Southwell.
LINGFIELD (GB) 2:10 1m – pontins.com Handicap (Class 3)
Based on my tissue (and the market) perm one from the first three in the betting Wavertree Warrior, Bomber Command, Orchard Supreme.
On collateral form lines Bomber Command should be the winner, but with the Orchard Supreme’s stable and jockey in form, he cannot be dismissed. On pace analysis I can see Wavertree Warrior piping Orchard Supreme on the line.
With the bookies not offering any xmas cheer in the front three … no bet..  :angry: <br>
Hi, does Littmoden’s form not leave a lot to be desired?
I rowed in on Orchard Supreme last time out, and thought he got a horrible trip – shuffled back at just the wrong time and staying on when it was all over. The mile is much more in his favour here. I’m on a recovery mission.
That’s obvious in my one-eyed tissue!
Orchard Supreme 5/2<br>Bomber Command 9/2<br>Wavertree Warrior 9/2
4pts win Orchard Supreme at 10/3 (or probably better as hardly strong this morning).
Festive greetings all.
<br>
Nice analysis chaps!:biggrin:
I’d consider Wavertree Warrior in the future back at 7f under a more positive ride. It’s no wonder Littmoden has had difficulties if his horses receive rides like that one. (No money invested, btw).
Btw, if anyone backed Hoh Watanite at Southwell today, I watched an animated discussion between Graham Gibbons and the stable rep regarding it’s poor performance. They expected much better apparently.
I’ll be keeping an eye on this one and Haifa of Anne Duffield’s, a nice looking filly rapidly coming back to form and a shoo-in for a Class 6 1m -1m2f handicap at the sandpit.
In the 2.50 Windowpane Stakes, Bluebottle Girl looks a good thing under 2 micrograms after her game performance in the Roast Beef. It’s unlikely Housefly can overturn form after making a noise last time; a buzzing noise.
Two days? I can’t take it. *bites fingernails*
Merry Christmas Sandmen!!:biggrin:
ROTFLMAO max.. :biggrin:
When reviewing the cards for the week noticed a couple of class 2 handicap events at Wolverhampton Sun (2:55) Southwell Monday (2:45 & 3:15)
.. If last year was anything to go by I’ll need a few days for my brain cells to recover from the new years parrrrtttyyyyy so I’ll pass on these races now..
Happy New Year to all sand castle fans.. :cool: <br>
(Edited by slipperytoad at 5:42 pm on Dec. 27, 2006)
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