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A definite lack of decent dirt events recently.
5:20 Wolverhampton
Just the four runners, but with all of them quite happy to race prominently or lead, there should be a reasonable pace on.
Love In May – disappointing last time when the race was there for the taking and has the lowest speed figures of these. Unlikely.
Beauchamp Viceroy – for me, takes too long to pick up and that could be fatal for win purposes against 3 useful enough types here, even with Brett Doyle riding.
Dubai Magic – acts on polytrack and chances off a short break with stable in good form. Form suggests he may have more to offer.
Alittlebitleft – beaten last time but ran faster than ever before and this small field will suit. Has the best sand form in the book and big chance.
Conclusion
My 100% tissue looks like this…
4/5 – Alittlebitleft<br> 4/1 – Beauchamp Viceroy<br> 4/1 – Dubai Magic<br>20/1 – Love In May
Therefore, at current/likely prices, my bets are
£3 f/c on Alittlebitleft to beat Dubai Magic<br>£2 on Dubai Magic to win<br>£1 f/c on Dubai Magic to beat Alittlebitleft
And dipping down in class…
3:00 Southwell
Red River Rebel looks outstanding here, but Orchard House (c. 16/1) acts here, can go well fresh, and comes from a small stable doing well, so…
Orchard House £2 e/w<br>Orchard House & Red River Rebel 2 x £2 r/f/c
Although the small field, I think there is an angle for a bet in the 5.20. Alittlebitleft has been much improved since fitted with blinkers, he no longer hits a flat spot in his races and his form is solid, that effort behind Cesc better than anything his rivals have achieved but I think he may be vulnerable at this trip to something with a turn of foot. Like NV says, Beauchamp Viceroy takes a while to get going and I’m not sure the form of his last 2 races is partculalry strong. That leaves us with just Dubai Magic. He’s been off a few weeks but the stable is in good form and his run at Lingfield last time came in a strong race. Arguably a bit better than the result that day too and he’s been dropped a generous 4 lb. Stable going well and I think he’s twice the price he should at the current 7/1.
Although Night Groove is disadvantaged at the weights in the claimer which opens the Wolver card, (3.50), the horse does have one advantage; he is guaranteed to stay the extended mile. Has CD form too:- the only runner in the field to boast this.
The duo from the Evans stable are unlikely to stay at racing pace on such deep harrowed ground. The forecast favourite may be overrated in any case because of the reputation of his prior connections and the stable has an extremely low win percentage over the last three weeks.
Rose Muwasim, the danger, comes from an Attwater stable returning to form after a dreadful winter so far but may not stay the trip as fully as the selection.
It’s a tough day where bookmakers aim to recoup losses from Christmas stable gambles and this is the only bet of the day for me.
Sel: Night Groove 3.50 Wolv<br>S/F Night Groove<br> Rose Muwasim
That looked a shocking race Max, and one in which I had my biggest bet of the day – e/w on Rose Muwasim, which could have been much nicer than it was, but (with a couple of supporting returns) put me pretty much level for the day all told. Just as well because Friday sucked, and I still can’t believe that Waggott horse did my Orchard House bet in…
Sunday 2:55 Wolverhampton
An interesting looking event for me, although looks like a slightly above-average Class 3…
Boo – basically rejected due to being very harshly handicapped at present, and needs to have found another chunk of improvement from somewhere to be fully competitive off this mark.
Weightless – free-racing style means polytrack victories are going to be very hard to come by for this one. Will probably blast off too fast in front and get overhauled before the final 330yds, imho.
Psychiatrist – some signs of gradually finding form but blinkers look all wrong given how difficult he is to settle already and remains plenty high in the handicap for now.
Paraguay – has shown definite promise on the polytrack and potentially offers some value here, being a proper hold-up horse at a big price in a race with plenty of speed on. A late run might be decisive if Fentiman can get him going early enough. The extra distance should suit…
Byron Bay – form suggests he would be better over slightly shorter and is another with plenty of weight after a good dirt season.
Kindlelight Debut – capable of very good form here and distance probably suits nowadays. Interesting but nothing hidden from the world now and formerly very decent strike-rate is being replaced with the solid placed efforts of a horse weighted up to the hilt and beyond…
Langford – doesn’t truly stay and might prefer a longer straight in any event. A very unlikely winner as I see it.
Vacation – everything is in place for another good run, including the fact that there is some scope for improvement. Good chance.
Bahar Shumaal – inconsistent lop-sided look to this one’s form, but ‘wonder-run’ came on only effort over this C&D and hard to reject outright.
Conclusion<br>I have four with decent chances, of which 3 are the top 3 in the market (Bahar Shumaal, Vacation and Kindlelight Debut), the other being Paraguay. My assessment would be that Vacation probably has the best win chance of the quartet, but that Paraguay has a really good chance of running well at a good value price.
Therefore, £10 staked as follows…
Paraguay to finish 1st or 2nd with {Bahar Shumaal, Vacation, Kindlelight Debut} = 6 x £1 Exactas
Paraguay £2 e.w.
(Edited by non vintage at 1:00 am on Dec. 31, 2006)
I won’t be backing anything by J Doyle anytime soon, NV.
The only guaranteed stayer in the field and he set a pace my beloved Grandma in heaven could have kept up with. Backed too. That’s the shortest priced horse I’ve backed for six months and it finished last. LOL.
As you’ve noticed, I should keep a close eye on Michael Attwater’s horses everywhere they run in the next few weeks. They’re in rude health and the stable form wave is definitely on the up.
Case in point, ATR favourite Dale Gibson travels down to Kempton for one Attwater ride on Wilford Maverick. Strangely, he isn’t riding Kissi Kissi for the stable in the second last. Both have reasonable chances in these ex-Banded races at reasonable prices. Small bets on these for me.
Sel: Wilford Maverick 2.20 K 8/1<br> Kissi Kissi 3.25 K 7/1
Good luck
Max
3:20 1m – pontinsbingo.com Conditions Stakes (Class 2)
Almost missed a notebook selection (forget to add the relevant email alert on GG.com).. :o
Areyoutalkingtome has a awesome turn of foot and is up to winning at group/listed class on the All Weather, but … this is his first real test today..
Concerns.. yep, he steps up in trip and the tight bends of Wolverhampton are very different from the undulations of Lingfield, but he owns me nothing from following him last year :cool:
Right – let’s get this new year rolling, and see how quickly I can give these unexpected profits back!
Wolves 3:20<br>I did have high hopes of this when prepping last night, but having looked at it find I can’t get much of a handle on it at all. There’s a lot of ifs and buts that’s for sure. No bet.
<br>Wolves 2:20<br>I liked this race far more, not least due to the 8 runners, and the cavalier way I seemed to have tossed out horses, including the Racing Post favourite.
My tissue:<br>Two Step Kid 3/1<br>Qadar 4/1<br>Night Prospector 7/1
The front two look solid enough. Obviously my price for Night Prospector is wrong, and caused by my discarding First Order and Prince Tum Tum.<br> <br>Clearly, everyone has decided he’s finished for now after those two disappointing runs at Southwell. However, our own thread talked down his chances in both of those, and if you were to forgive him them he should certainly be competitive over 6f here.
<br>Night Prospector 2pts ew at what I’ll call 16/1 (but actually have played at longer both win and place betfair).
Tooting – good luck with that one – But I really feel Night Prospect to be over the top now and could do with a break.
Two horses in the 2.20 look to be potentially well handicapped. They are Two Step Kid and Bahiano. Both have shown in the past the ability to be placed in much more competitive turf handicaps off higher marks and both look to have no problem at all with polytrack. The guessing game of how much ability Two Step Kid retains looks to be being answered in the positive considering the money for him early doors and if he’s back to his best I think he’ll win. However I have to also have a little bit on Bahiano at the current prices. Clive’s yard are going pretty well at the moment and a fast-run 6f looks just what he wants these days. No way he should be 10/1 when Miracle Ridge who only won a seller yesterday is 12’s.
Areyoutalkingto me looks worth taking on in the minor event at 3.20. His turn of foot over shorter at Lingfield isn’t likely to be as effective in this so he may struggle. If the betting speaks in favour of Cupid’s Glory I may well go with him as he was entitled to need it badly last time and he was ridden as if they wanted to blow any cobwebs away.
Only a lower scale I’ll also be looking to back Cumbrian Knight shortly after the off in the amateur staying handicap at 1.20. He usually misses the break but they never go quick in these races so shouldn’t be inconvenienced by that so might be able to steal an extra point or 2 over his sp. Step up in trip will be in his favour and won race of higher mark last year. Wasn’t discredited over hurdles last time and most of rivals also look out of sorts.
wolverhampton<br>2:20 5f 216yds – pontins.com Handicap (Class 2)
11/4 Two Step Kid, 100/30 First Order, 7/2 Qadar, 6/1 Prince Tum Tum, 7/1 Night Prospector
I’m glad Two Step Kid makes a reappearance today.. A very distinctive horse he was a very promising 3yo and shaped as one to follow way back in 2004 when he first hit the scene.
Most of the other runners we’ve seen before. Each is fully exposed or has questions to answer. Two Step Kid is the stranger in the race but his odds are cramped and little else appeals (based on my tissue) with the exception of Night Prospector.
A liking for Wolverhampton (2/1/3 course record), the only runner likely to dominate the pace in the race and a good draw to boot yes he is likely to set the race up for someone else but presents a tantalising each/way and exotic action play that could pay at the prices..
Night Prospector (small win, large place bet)
a. Two Step Kid, b. First Order, c. Night Prospector d, Qadar, e. Prince Tum Tum
ab/abc/abcde Tricast/Trifecta 12 lines @ .25p line.. £3.00 <br>To answer the question, nope …  I am not in collusion with Tooting but it looks like we arrived at the same selection independently.. :o
Hope yer don’t mind sticking mee neb in, but i agree with DJ regarding the 3.20
even allowing for the lay off, imo Cupids went off a tad too quick FTO and just set it up for those in behind
although i rate the jolly, if a more sensible pace is adopted today i can see Cupids doing the biz here, current odds look a tad big to me and i’m taking em
<br>Fascinating to see how Hattan gets on over this trip btw
good shout with CK DJ<br>
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